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It's midseason prospect time, but instead of creating a consensus list from different sites, I'll try something a little different and just update the players who were on the preseason list. Who helped or hurt their status with their statistics? Now I know statistics can be misleading when looking at prospects, but I'm not a scout so this is the best I can do. Using Minor League Central's league-adjusted wOBA numbers and some age adjustments, we can get a more context-appropriate look for players than just simple OPS.
Since most of my prospect research has been on hitters, I will only be looking at them in this post. I may cover pitchers in the future.
Prospects with MLB playing time
This is a list of all the prospects with MLB playing time this season:
Name | Rank | PA | wOBA | WAR |
Jurickson Profar | 1 | 124 | 0.299 | 0 |
Wil Myers | 4 | 34 | 0.341 | 0.1 |
Mike Zunino | 20 | 30 | 0.275 | 0 |
Anthony Rendon | 26 | 98 | 0.374 | 0.8 |
Mike Olt | 27 | 40 | 0.206 | -0.5 |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | 34 | 59 | 0.241 | -0.4 |
Nolan Arenado | 53 | 217 | 0.319 | 1.5 |
Nick Franklin | 55 | 103 | 0.369 | 0.8 |
Oswaldo Arcia | 61 | 154 | 0.357 | 0.1 |
Yasiel Puig | 73 | 82 | 0.523 | 1.7 |
Adam Eaton | 89 | 103 | 0.355 | 0.7 |
Didi Gregorius | 113 | 235 | 0.339 | 1.6 |
Marcell Ozuna | 115 | 198 | 0.33 | 2.1 |
Avisail Garcia | 116 | 132 | 0.299 | -0.3 |
Adeiny Hechavarria | 149 | 370 | 0.259 | -1 |
Brett Jackson | 155 | 142 | 0.292 | 0.1 |
Jose Iglesias | 157 | 198 | 0.35 | 1.6 |
Matt Adams | 184 | 181 | 0.335 | 0.2 |
*Current as of 6/25/13
Ozuna is leading the pack so far in overall value, but Puig(in 85 PAs!), Gregorius, Iglesias, and Arenado are right behind him. Profar has not performed extremely well so far, but has not had consistent playing time and is only 20 years old.
Top Prospects in the Minor Leagues
Next, how have the prospects performed in the minor leagues? This is where the age adjustment and league averages come into play. Finally, based on my previous work with walk and strikeout rate, I added a percent likelihood of a player becoming a bust or productive. A wOBA of 0.330 is league average, so use that number when determining how well these players have done. Keep in mind these numbers only represent at most half a season from a minor league player.
Single-A
Midwest League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Singleton | Astros | 29 | 21.75 | 25 | 0.530 | 51% | 26% |
Byron Buxton | Twins | 17 | 19.50 | 321 | 0.522 | 30% | 35% |
Albert Almora | Cubs | 30 | 19.17 | 116 | 0.468 | 76% | 12% |
Carlos Correa | Astros | 22 | 18.75 | 271 | 0.462 | 30% | 35% |
Corey Seager | Dodgers | 96 | 19.17 | 166 | 0.440 | 60% | 19% |
Jesse Winker | Reds | 180 | 19.83 | 274 | 0.432 | 30% | 35% |
Max Kepler | Twins | 142 | 20.33 | 20 | 0.381 | 51% | 26% |
Daniel Vogelbach | Cubs | 129 | 20.50 | 308 | 0.377 | 47% | 20% |
Jeimer Candelario | Cubs | 165 | 19.58 | 295 | 0.372 | 30% | 35% |
Patrick Wisdom | Cardinals | 173 | 21.83 | 290 | 0.369 | 50% | 33% |
Dorssys Paulino | Indians | 90 | 18.58 | 263 | 0.351 | 76% | 12% |
Clint Coulter | Brewers | 175 | 19.92 | 135 | 0.343 | 60% | 19% |
Victor Roache | Brewers | 178 | 21.75 | 228 | 0.318 | 77% | 13% |
Byron Buxton leads the league after removing Singleton since he only had 25 PAs this season after coming back from suspension. Almora and Paulino are keeping their strikeouts down, but aren't walking enough. Roache is striking out too much.
South Atlantic League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joey Gallo | Rangers | 132 | 19.58 | 311 | 0.436 | 50% | 33% |
Josh Bell | Pirates | 123 | 20.83 | 301 | 0.417 | 47% | 20% |
Lewis Brinson | Rangers | 108 | 19.08 | 290 | 0.400 | 50% | 33% |
Jorge Alfaro | Rangers | 104 | 20.00 | 282 | 0.386 | 64% | 14% |
Adalberto Mondesi | Royals | 105 | 17.92 | 278 | 0.368 | 64% | 14% |
David Dahl | Rockies | 42 | 19.17 | 42 | 0.362 | 76% | 12% |
Barrett Barnes | Pirates | 183 | 21.92 | 107 | 0.345 | 64% | 14% |
Roman Quinn | Phillies | 164 | 20.08 | 298 | 0.333 | 60% | 19% |
Bubba Starling | Royals | 56 | 20.83 | 262 | 0.322 | 77% | 13% |
Miguel Almonte | Royals | 159 | 20.17 | 2 | 0.000 | 71% | 14% |
Alfaro, Mondesi, Dahl, and Barnes all have low walk rates. Starling is striking out too much and his walk rate is not high enough to counteract that. His overall wOBA is below league average, even after an age adjustment.
High-A
California League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Addison Russell | Athletics | 33 | 19.42 | 281 | 0.432 | 51% | 26% |
Delino DeShields | Astros | 88 | 20.83 | 259 | 0.389 | 30% | 35% |
Austin Hedges | Padres | 50 | 20.83 | 149 | 0.379 | 30% | 35% |
Trevor Story | Rockies | 59 | 20.58 | 293 | 0.313 | 77% | 13% |
Stefen Romero | Mariners | 186 | 24.67 | 21 | 0.307 | 47% | 20% |
Adam Eaton | Diamondbacks | 89 | 24.50 | 30 | 0.272 | 76% | 12% |
Russell jumped up prospect boards after a great pro debut in 2012 and has not slowed down this year. Expect a promotion to AA at some point. Story's...story is similar in that he had huge numbers in A-ball, but so far has an extremely high strikeout rate and is only walking at an average pace in High-A.
Carolina League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garin Cecchini | Red Sox | 133 | 22.17 | 262 | 0.492 | 30% | 35% |
Rougned Odor | Rangers | 176 | 19.33 | 291 | 0.461 | 76% | 12% |
Jorge Bonifacio | Royals | 172 | 20.00 | 146 | 0.459 | 30% | 35% |
Francisco Lindor | Indians | 16 | 19.58 | 306 | 0.434 | 30% | 35% |
Cheslor Cuthbert | Royals | 169 | 20.58 | 254 | 0.419 | 30% | 35% |
Blake Swihart | Red Sox | 140 | 21.17 | 216 | 0.399 | 30% | 35% |
Courtney Hawkins | White Sox | 71 | 19.58 | 173 | 0.369 | 77% | 13% |
Luis Sardinas | Rangers | 114 | 20.08 | 296 | 0.368 | 76% | 12% |
Cecchini was tearing up the High-A and has been promoted to AA. Odor and Sardinas have good strikeout rates, but struggle taking a walk. Hawkins strikes out nearly twice the league average and rarely walks. He still has a lot of work to do, even though his overall offensive totals look good.
Florida State League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avisail Garcia | Tigers | 116 | 22.00 | 28 | 0.561 | 30% | 35% |
Miguel Sano | Twins | 15 | 20.08 | 243 | 0.555 | 51% | 26% |
Adeiny Hechavarria | Marlins | 149 | 24.17 | 9 | 0.495 | 30% | 35% |
Maikel Franco | Phillies | 141 | 20.83 | 289 | 0.473 | 47% | 20% |
Javier Baez | Cubs | 18 | 20.50 | 303 | 0.457 | 64% | 14% |
Eddie Rosario | Twins | 119 | 21.75 | 231 | 0.441 | 47% | 20% |
Gregory Polanco | Pirates | 54 | 21.75 | 241 | 0.440 | 47% | 20% |
Alen Hanson | Pirates | 52 | 20.67 | 300 | 0.426 | 30% | 35% |
Gary Sanchez | Yankees | 35 | 20.50 | 272 | 0.411 | 30% | 35% |
Jorge Soler | Cubs | 35 | 21.33 | 236 | 0.398 | 30% | 35% |
Drew Vettleson | Rays | 166 | 21.92 | 277 | 0.359 | 76% | 12% |
Richie Shaffer | Rays | 184 | 22.25 | 266 | 0.330 | 64% | 14% |
Mason Williams | Yankees | 40 | 21.83 | 294 | 0.330 | 30% | 35% |
Jake Marisnick | Marlins | 63 | 22.25 | 15 | 0.288 | 76% | 12% |
Marcell Ozuna | Marlins | 115 | 22.58 | 15 | 0.282 | 71% | 14% |
Christian Yelich | Marlins | 11 | 21.50 | 4 | 0.252 | 71% | 14% |
Baez has some really good offensive numbers, but he will need to start walking a bit more. Vettleson and Shaffer have low walk totals as well.
Double-A
Eastern League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maikel Franco | Phillies | 141 | 20.83 | 22 | 0.771 | 76% | 12% |
Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 9 | 20.67 | 259 | 0.510 | 30% | 35% |
Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 26 | 23.00 | 152 | 0.506 | 30% | 35% |
Garin Cecchini | Red Sox | 133 | 22.17 | 19 | 0.476 | 51% | 26% |
Gregory Polanco | Pirates | 54 | 21.75 | 35 | 0.444 | 47% | 20% |
Matthew Skole | Nationals | 188 | 23.92 | 7 | 0.405 | 50% | 33% |
Ronny Rodriguez | Indians | 157 | 21.17 | 292 | 0.403 | 76% | 12% |
Tyler Austin | Yankees | 82 | 21.75 | 301 | 0.403 | 51% | 26% |
Brian Goodwin | Nationals | 58 | 22.58 | 327 | 0.391 | 51% | 26% |
Eddie Rosario | Twins | 119 | 21.75 | 50 | 0.389 | 51% | 26% |
Miguel Sano | Twins | 15 | 20.08 | 51 | 0.346 | 51% | 26% |
Slade Heathcott | Yankees | 85 | 22.75 | 280 | 0.346 | 60% | 19% |
A lot of these players are recent call-ups to AA and haven't played long enough to stabilize their numbers. Bogaerts and Rendon were the top performers and both have been promoted (Bogaerts to AAA and Rendon to MLB). Rodriguez has a high bust probability because of his extremely low walk totals.
Southern League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcell Ozuna | Marlins | 115 | 22.58 | 47 | 0.541 | 64% | 14% |
Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | 73 | 22.50 | 167 | 0.495 | 47% | 20% |
Joc Pederson | Dodgers | 121 | 21.17 | 313 | 0.459 | 51% | 26% |
Christian Yelich | Marlins | 11 | 21.50 | 187 | 0.444 | 51% | 26% |
Jake Marisnick | Marlins | 63 | 22.25 | 199 | 0.440 | 64% | 14% |
Trayce Thompson | White Sox | 145 | 22.25 | 322 | 0.426 | 51% | 26% |
Edward Salcedo | Braves | 181 | 21.92 | 287 | 0.425 | 60% | 19% |
Brad Miller | Mariners | 136 | 23.67 | 175 | 0.417 | 30% | 35% |
Christian Bethancourt | Braves | 117 | 21.75 | 177 | 0.327 | 64% | 14% |
Jacob Realmuto | Marlins | 146 | 22.25 | 246 | 0.324 | 60% | 19% |
Puig had the best offensive output in the Southern League, and I don't have to tell you again how well he is doing in the majors. Neither Marisnick nor Bethancourt have walked enough this year.
Texas League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Singleton | Astros | 29 | 21.75 | 48 | 0.477 | 50% | 33% |
George Springer | Astros | 46 | 23.75 | 323 | 0.464 | 50% | 33% |
Mike Olt | Rangers | 27 | 24.83 | 12 | 0.456 | 71% | 14% |
Kyle Parker | Rockies | 152 | 23.75 | 261 | 0.383 | 47% | 20% |
Kaleb Cowart | Angels | 48 | 21.00 | 300 | 0.330 | 51% | 26% |
Matt Adams | Cardinals | 184 | 24.83 | 12 | 0.258 | 71% | 14% |
Cheslor Cuthbert | Royals | 169 | 20.58 | 41 | 0.203 | 76% | 12% |
Springer was named MVP of the AA All-Star game and was recently promoted to AAA. Cowart has had a rough go of it in his first taste of AA, but the age adjustments do push him up to league average.
Triple-A
International League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hak-Ju Lee | Rays | 76 | 22.58 | 57 | 0.642 | 30% | 35% |
Avisail Garcia | Tigers | 116 | 22 | 51 | 0.596 | 64% | 14% |
Oswaldo Arcia | Twins | 61 | 22.08 | 108 | 0.515 | 51% | 26% |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | Red Sox | 34 | 23.17 | 157 | 0.499 | 30% | 35% |
Nick Castellanos | Tigers | 25 | 21.25 | 351 | 0.497 | 30% | 35% |
Wil Myers | Rays | 4 | 22.5 | 289 | 0.481 | 51% | 26% |
Jonathan Schoop | Orioles | 93 | 21.67 | 139 | 0.437 | 47% | 20% |
Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 9 | 20.67 | 48 | 0.422 | 30% | 35% |
Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 26 | 23 | 14 | 0.373 | 51% | 26% |
Billy Hamilton | Reds | 23 | 22.75 | 326 | 0.352 | 47% | 20% |
Jose Iglesias | Red Sox | 157 | 23.42 | 133 | 0.320 | 76% | 12% |
Lee was off to a boiling start before going down for the season with a knee injury. Bradley started off the season in the majors and has shown he is ready to return. Only Iglesias hurt his stock with minor league play, but he now has a 0.458 wOBA this season in the major leagues.
Pacific Coast League
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | PA | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nolan Arenado | Rockies | 53 | 22.17 | 75 | 0.518 | 47% | 20% |
Didi Gregorius | Diamondbacks | 113 | 23.33 | 33 | 0.499 | 76% | 12% |
Brad Miller | Mariners | 136 | 23.67 | 114 | 0.484 | 30% | 35% |
Chris Owings | Diamondbacks | 120 | 21.83 | 358 | 0.477 | 76% | 12% |
Nick Franklin | Mariners | 55 | 22.25 | 177 | 0.472 | 30% | 35% |
Jurickson Profar | Rangers | 1 | 20.33 | 166 | 0.470 | 30% | 35% |
Wilmer Flores | Mets | 149 | 21.83 | 322 | 0.449 | 76% | 12% |
Jonathan Singleton | Astros | 29 | 21.75 | 42 | 0.448 | 50% | 33% |
Travis d'Arnaud | Mets | 12 | 24.33 | 49 | 0.447 | 30% | 35% |
Oscar Taveras | Cardinals | 2 | 21 | 186 | 0.432 | 76% | 12% |
Kolten Wong | Cardinals | 65 | 22.67 | 300 | 0.427 | 47% | 20% |
Matt Davidson | Diamondbacks | 81 | 22.25 | 315 | 0.427 | 60% | 19% |
Mike Zunino | Mariners | 20 | 22.25 | 208 | 0.420 | 77% | 13% |
Michael Choice | Athletics | 111 | 23.58 | 335 | 0.416 | 51% | 26% |
Jonathan Villar | Astros | 189 | 22.08 | 316 | 0.380 | 60% | 19% |
Stefen Romero | Mariners | 186 | 24.67 | 224 | 0.372 | 64% | 14% |
Gary Brown | Giants | 103 | 24.75 | 343 | 0.328 | 64% | 14% |
Brett Jackson | Cubs | 155 | 24.83 | 242 | 0.313 | 77% | 13% |
Adam Eaton | Diamondbacks | 89 | 24.5 | 36 | 0.210 | 60% | 19% |
A lot of these players have major league playing time or will by the end of this season. Most of the players labeled with high bust rates have them because of their low walk totals, with Zunino and Jackson the lone exceptions. Their walk rates are acceptable, but not high enough to account for their high strikeouts. Taveras has not been walking enough this season, but he has been on and off the disabled list with an ankle injury.
Summary
How 'bout them Twins? Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Arcia have all taken a huge step forward. If I look at only players with enough PAs to qualify and good K/BB rates, here are the top 10 this year:
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | Level | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Sano | Twins | 15 | 20.08 | A+ | 0.555 | 51% | 26% |
Byron Buxton | Twins | 17 | 19.5 | A | 0.522 | 30% | 35% |
Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 9 | 20.67 | AA | 0.510 | 30% | 35% |
Nick Castellanos | Tigers | 25 | 21.25 | AAA | 0.497 | 30% | 35% |
Garin Cecchini | Red Sox | 133 | 22.17 | A+ | 0.492 | 30% | 35% |
Wil Myers | Rays | 4 | 22.5 | AAA | 0.481 | 51% | 26% |
Maikel Franco | Phillies | 141 | 20.83 | A+ | 0.473 | 47% | 20% |
George Springer | Astros | 46 | 23.75 | AA | 0.464 | 50% | 33% |
Carlos Correa | Astros | 22 | 18.75 | A | 0.462 | 30% | 35% |
Joc Pederson | Dodgers | 121 | 21.17 | AA | 0.459 | 51% | 26% |
Now it all can't be rainbows and unicorns, here are some players who have hurt their status with the bat this year:
Name | Organization | Rank | Age | Level | Adj wOBA | Bust% | Prod% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trevor Story | Rockies | 59 | 20.58 | A+ | 0.313 | 77% | 13% |
Victor Roache | Brewers | 178 | 21.75 | A | 0.318 | 77% | 13% |
Bubba Starling | Royals | 56 | 20.83 | A | 0.322 | 77% | 13% |
Jacob Realmuto | Marlins | 146 | 22.25 | AA | 0.324 | 60% | 19% |
Gary Brown | Giants | 103 | 24.75 | AAA | 0.328 | 64% | 14% |
Kaleb Cowart | Angels | 48 | 21 | AA | 0.330 | 51% | 26% |
Mason Williams | Yankees | 40 | 21.83 | A+ | 0.330 | 30% | 35% |
Richie Shaffer | Rays | 184 | 22.25 | A+ | 0.330 | 64% | 14% |
Roman Quinn | Phillies | 164 | 20.08 | A | 0.333 | 60% | 19% |
Slade Heathcott | Yankees | 85 | 22.75 | AA | 0.346 | 60% | 19% |
Without a second-half revival, expect to see some of these guys drop in the rankings or even off lists altogether.
This was a brief look at the pre-season prospects, next I will cover those players who did not appear on a list but have been performing well in the minors.