Midseason Consensus Top 190 Prospects Update: Hitters

It's midseason prospect time, but instead of creating a consensus list from different sites, I'll try something a little different and just update the players who were on the preseason list. Who helped or hurt their status with their statistics? Now I know statistics can be misleading when looking at prospects, but I'm not a scout so this is the best I can do. Using Minor League Central's league-adjusted wOBA numbers and some age adjustments, we can get a more context-appropriate look for players than just simple OPS.

Since most of my prospect research has been on hitters, I will only be looking at them in this post. I may cover pitchers in the future.

Prospects with MLB playing time

This is a list of all the prospects with MLB playing time this season:

Name	Rank	PA	wOBA	WAR
Jurickson Profar	1	124	0.299	0
Wil Myers	4	34	0.341	0.1
Mike Zunino	20	30	0.275	0
Anthony Rendon	26	98	0.374	0.8
Mike Olt	27	40	0.206	-0.5
Jackie Bradley Jr.	34	59	0.241	-0.4
Nolan Arenado	53	217	0.319	1.5
Nick Franklin	55	103	0.369	0.8
Oswaldo Arcia	61	154	0.357	0.1
Yasiel Puig	73	82	0.523	1.7
Adam Eaton	89	103	0.355	0.7
Didi Gregorius	113	235	0.339	1.6
Marcell Ozuna	115	198	0.33	2.1
Avisail Garcia	116	132	0.299	-0.3
Adeiny Hechavarria	149	370	0.259	-1
Brett Jackson	155	142	0.292	0.1
Jose Iglesias	157	198	0.35	1.6
Matt Adams	184	181	0.335	0.2

*Current as of 6/25/13

Ozuna is leading the pack so far in overall value, but Puig(in 85 PAs!), Gregorius, Iglesias, and Arenado are right behind him. Profar has not performed extremely well so far, but has not had consistent playing time and is only 20 years old.

Top Prospects in the Minor Leagues

Next, how have the prospects performed in the minor leagues? This is where the age adjustment and league averages come into play. Finally, based on my previous work with walk and strikeout rate, I added a percent likelihood of a player becoming a bust or productive. A wOBA of 0.330 is league average, so use that number when determining how well these players have done. Keep in mind these numbers only represent at most half a season from a minor league player.

Single-A

Midwest League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Jonathan Singleton	Astros	29	21.75	25	0.530	51%	26%
Byron Buxton	Twins	17	19.50	321	0.522	30%	35%
Albert Almora	Cubs	30	19.17	116	0.468	76%	12%
Carlos Correa	Astros	22	18.75	271	0.462	30%	35%
Corey Seager	Dodgers	96	19.17	166	0.440	60%	19%
Jesse Winker	Reds	180	19.83	274	0.432	30%	35%
Max Kepler	Twins	142	20.33	20	0.381	51%	26%
Daniel Vogelbach	Cubs	129	20.50	308	0.377	47%	20%
Jeimer Candelario	Cubs	165	19.58	295	0.372	30%	35%
Patrick Wisdom	Cardinals	173	21.83	290	0.369	50%	33%
Dorssys Paulino	Indians	90	18.58	263	0.351	76%	12%
Clint Coulter	Brewers	175	19.92	135	0.343	60%	19%
Victor Roache	Brewers	178	21.75	228	0.318	77%	13%

Byron Buxton leads the league after removing Singleton since he only had 25 PAs this season after coming back from suspension. Almora and Paulino are keeping their strikeouts down, but aren't walking enough. Roache is striking out too much.

South Atlantic League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Joey Gallo	Rangers	132	19.58	311	0.436	50%	33%
Josh Bell	Pirates	123	20.83	301	0.417	47%	20%
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	108	19.08	290	0.400	50%	33%
Jorge Alfaro	Rangers	104	20.00	282	0.386	64%	14%
Adalberto Mondesi	Royals	105	17.92	278	0.368	64%	14%
David Dahl	Rockies	42	19.17	42	0.362	76%	12%
Barrett Barnes	Pirates	183	21.92	107	0.345	64%	14%
Roman Quinn	Phillies	164	20.08	298	0.333	60%	19%
Bubba Starling	Royals	56	20.83	262	0.322	77%	13%
Miguel Almonte	Royals	159	20.17	2	0.000	71%	14%

Alfaro, Mondesi, Dahl, and Barnes all have low walk rates. Starling is striking out too much and his walk rate is not high enough to counteract that. His overall wOBA is below league average, even after an age adjustment.

High-A

California League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Addison Russell	Athletics	33	19.42	281	0.432	51%	26%
Delino DeShields	Astros	88	20.83	259	0.389	30%	35%
Austin Hedges	Padres	50	20.83	149	0.379	30%	35%
Trevor Story	Rockies	59	20.58	293	0.313	77%	13%
Stefen Romero	Mariners	186	24.67	21	0.307	47%	20%
Adam Eaton	Diamondbacks	89	24.50	30	0.272	76%	12%

Russell jumped up prospect boards after a great pro debut in 2012 and has not slowed down this year. Expect a promotion to AA at some point. Story's...story is similar in that he had huge numbers in A-ball, but so far has an extremely high strikeout rate and is only walking at an average pace in High-A.

Carolina League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Garin Cecchini	Red Sox	133	22.17	262	0.492	30%	35%
Rougned Odor	Rangers	176	19.33	291	0.461	76%	12%
Jorge Bonifacio	Royals	172	20.00	146	0.459	30%	35%
Francisco Lindor	Indians	16	19.58	306	0.434	30%	35%
Cheslor Cuthbert	Royals	169	20.58	254	0.419	30%	35%
Blake Swihart	Red Sox	140	21.17	216	0.399	30%	35%
Courtney Hawkins	White Sox	71	19.58	173	0.369	77%	13%
Luis Sardinas	Rangers	114	20.08	296	0.368	76%	12%

Cecchini was tearing up the High-A and has been promoted to AA. Odor and Sardinas have good strikeout rates, but struggle taking a walk. Hawkins strikes out nearly twice the league average and rarely walks. He still has a lot of work to do, even though his overall offensive totals look good.

Florida State League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Avisail Garcia	Tigers	116	22.00	28	0.561	30%	35%
Miguel Sano	Twins	15	20.08	243	0.555	51%	26%
Adeiny Hechavarria	Marlins	149	24.17	9	0.495	30%	35%
Maikel Franco	Phillies	141	20.83	289	0.473	47%	20%
Javier Baez	Cubs	18	20.50	303	0.457	64%	14%
Eddie Rosario	Twins	119	21.75	231	0.441	47%	20%
Gregory Polanco	Pirates	54	21.75	241	0.440	47%	20%
Alen Hanson	Pirates	52	20.67	300	0.426	30%	35%
Gary Sanchez	Yankees	35	20.50	272	0.411	30%	35%
Jorge Soler	Cubs	35	21.33	236	0.398	30%	35%
Drew Vettleson	Rays	166	21.92	277	0.359	76%	12%
Richie Shaffer	Rays	184	22.25	266	0.330	64%	14%
Mason Williams	Yankees	40	21.83	294	0.330	30%	35%
Jake Marisnick	Marlins	63	22.25	15	0.288	76%	12%
Marcell Ozuna	Marlins	115	22.58	15	0.282	71%	14%
Christian Yelich	Marlins	11	21.50	4	0.252	71%	14%

Baez has some really good offensive numbers, but he will need to start walking a bit more. Vettleson and Shaffer have low walk totals as well.

Double-A

Eastern League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Maikel Franco	Phillies	141	20.83	22	0.771	76%	12%
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	9	20.67	259	0.510	30%	35%
Anthony Rendon	Nationals	26	23.00	152	0.506	30%	35%
Garin Cecchini	Red Sox	133	22.17	19	0.476	51%	26%
Gregory Polanco	Pirates	54	21.75	35	0.444	47%	20%
Matthew Skole	Nationals	188	23.92	7	0.405	50%	33%
Ronny Rodriguez	Indians	157	21.17	292	0.403	76%	12%
Tyler Austin	Yankees	82	21.75	301	0.403	51%	26%
Brian Goodwin	Nationals	58	22.58	327	0.391	51%	26%
Eddie Rosario	Twins	119	21.75	50	0.389	51%	26%
Miguel Sano	Twins	15	20.08	51	0.346	51%	26%
Slade Heathcott	Yankees	85	22.75	280	0.346	60%	19%

A lot of these players are recent call-ups to AA and haven't played long enough to stabilize their numbers. Bogaerts and Rendon were the top performers and both have been promoted (Bogaerts to AAA and Rendon to MLB). Rodriguez has a high bust probability because of his extremely low walk totals.

Southern League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Marcell Ozuna	Marlins	115	22.58	47	0.541	64%	14%
Yasiel Puig	Dodgers	73	22.50	167	0.495	47%	20%
Joc Pederson	Dodgers	121	21.17	313	0.459	51%	26%
Christian Yelich	Marlins	11	21.50	187	0.444	51%	26%
Jake Marisnick	Marlins	63	22.25	199	0.440	64%	14%
Trayce Thompson	White Sox	145	22.25	322	0.426	51%	26%
Edward Salcedo	Braves	181	21.92	287	0.425	60%	19%
Brad Miller	Mariners	136	23.67	175	0.417	30%	35%
Christian Bethancourt	Braves	117	21.75	177	0.327	64%	14%
Jacob Realmuto	Marlins	146	22.25	246	0.324	60%	19%

Puig had the best offensive output in the Southern League, and I don't have to tell you again how well he is doing in the majors. Neither Marisnick nor Bethancourt have walked enough this year.

Texas League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Jonathan Singleton	Astros	29	21.75	48	0.477	50%	33%
George Springer	Astros	46	23.75	323	0.464	50%	33%
Mike Olt	Rangers	27	24.83	12	0.456	71%	14%
Kyle Parker	Rockies	152	23.75	261	0.383	47%	20%
Kaleb Cowart	Angels	48	21.00	300	0.330	51%	26%
Matt Adams	Cardinals	184	24.83	12	0.258	71%	14%
Cheslor Cuthbert	Royals	169	20.58	41	0.203	76%	12%

Springer was named MVP of the AA All-Star game and was recently promoted to AAA. Cowart has had a rough go of it in his first taste of AA, but the age adjustments do push him up to league average.

Triple-A

International League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Hak-Ju Lee	Rays	76	22.58	57	0.642	30%	35%
Avisail Garcia	Tigers	116	22	51	0.596	64%	14%
Oswaldo Arcia	Twins	61	22.08	108	0.515	51%	26%
Jackie Bradley Jr.	Red Sox	34	23.17	157	0.499	30%	35%
Nick Castellanos	Tigers	25	21.25	351	0.497	30%	35%
Wil Myers	Rays	4	22.5	289	0.481	51%	26%
Jonathan Schoop	Orioles	93	21.67	139	0.437	47%	20%
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	9	20.67	48	0.422	30%	35%
Anthony Rendon	Nationals	26	23	14	0.373	51%	26%
Billy Hamilton	Reds	23	22.75	326	0.352	47%	20%
Jose Iglesias	Red Sox	157	23.42	133	0.320	76%	12%

Lee was off to a boiling start before going down for the season with a knee injury. Bradley started off the season in the majors and has shown he is ready to return. Only Iglesias hurt his stock with minor league play, but he now has a 0.458 wOBA this season in the major leagues.

Pacific Coast League

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	PA	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Nolan Arenado	Rockies	53	22.17	75	0.518	47%	20%
Didi Gregorius	Diamondbacks	113	23.33	33	0.499	76%	12%
Brad Miller	Mariners	136	23.67	114	0.484	30%	35%
Chris Owings	Diamondbacks	120	21.83	358	0.477	76%	12%
Nick Franklin	Mariners	55	22.25	177	0.472	30%	35%
Jurickson Profar	Rangers	1	20.33	166	0.470	30%	35%
Wilmer Flores	Mets	149	21.83	322	0.449	76%	12%
Jonathan Singleton	Astros	29	21.75	42	0.448	50%	33%
Travis d'Arnaud	Mets	12	24.33	49	0.447	30%	35%
Oscar Taveras	Cardinals	2	21	186	0.432	76%	12%
Kolten Wong	Cardinals	65	22.67	300	0.427	47%	20%
Matt Davidson	Diamondbacks	81	22.25	315	0.427	60%	19%
Mike Zunino	Mariners	20	22.25	208	0.420	77%	13%
Michael Choice	Athletics	111	23.58	335	0.416	51%	26%
Jonathan Villar	Astros	189	22.08	316	0.380	60%	19%
Stefen Romero	Mariners	186	24.67	224	0.372	64%	14%
Gary Brown	Giants	103	24.75	343	0.328	64%	14%
Brett Jackson	Cubs	155	24.83	242	0.313	77%	13%
Adam Eaton	Diamondbacks	89	24.5	36	0.210	60%	19%

A lot of these players have major league playing time or will by the end of this season. Most of the players labeled with high bust rates have them because of their low walk totals, with Zunino and Jackson the lone exceptions. Their walk rates are acceptable, but not high enough to account for their high strikeouts. Taveras has not been walking enough this season, but he has been on and off the disabled list with an ankle injury.

Summary

How 'bout them Twins? Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Arcia have all taken a huge step forward. If I look at only players with enough PAs to qualify and good K/BB rates, here are the top 10 this year:

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	Level	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Miguel Sano	Twins	15	20.08	A+	0.555	51%	26%
Byron Buxton	Twins	17	19.5	A	0.522	30%	35%
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	9	20.67	AA	0.510	30%	35%
Nick Castellanos	Tigers	25	21.25	AAA	0.497	30%	35%
Garin Cecchini	Red Sox	133	22.17	A+	0.492	30%	35%
Wil Myers	Rays	4	22.5	AAA	0.481	51%	26%
Maikel Franco	Phillies	141	20.83	A+	0.473	47%	20%
George Springer	Astros	46	23.75	AA	0.464	50%	33%
Carlos Correa	Astros	22	18.75	A	0.462	30%	35%
Joc Pederson	Dodgers	121	21.17	AA	0.459	51%	26%

Now it all can't be rainbows and unicorns, here are some players who have hurt their status with the bat this year:

Name	Organization	Rank	Age	Level	Adj wOBA	Bust%	Prod%
Trevor Story	Rockies	59	20.58	A+	0.313	77%	13%
Victor Roache	Brewers	178	21.75	A	0.318	77%	13%
Bubba Starling	Royals	56	20.83	A	0.322	77%	13%
Jacob Realmuto	Marlins	146	22.25	AA	0.324	60%	19%
Gary Brown	Giants	103	24.75	AAA	0.328	64%	14%
Kaleb Cowart	Angels	48	21	AA	0.330	51%	26%
Mason Williams	Yankees	40	21.83	A+	0.330	30%	35%
Richie Shaffer	Rays	184	22.25	A+	0.330	64%	14%
Roman Quinn	Phillies	164	20.08	A	0.333	60%	19%
Slade Heathcott	Yankees	85	22.75	AA	0.346	60%	19%

Without a second-half revival, expect to see some of these guys drop in the rankings or even off lists altogether.

This was a brief look at the pre-season prospects, next I will cover those players who did not appear on a list but have been performing well in the minors.