Quantifying the Game's Most Efficient Attacks

It is a joy to watch a great offense take their hacks.

Everyone wants their own team to have a high powered offense, a star-studded lineup from the top to bottom.

But nothing is worse than watching a team struggle to score runs, leaving countless runners on base in the process.

That is not a joy - it is torture.

When I think of the ideal offensive attack, I think of efficiency. I want to be certain that my team will make the most of every opportunity and come through when it matters.

So how can we quantify offensive efficiency? Which teams in recent history were the most effective in scoring their runs?

To calculate offensive efficiency, I thought of a number of avenues available to me. For one, I could have calculated R/PA or looked at things like moving runners over via bunt. LOB totals could have been useful for this venture, looking at the rate in which teams score in relation to their LOB totals.

Calculating efficiency through LOB could be deceiving. For one, the team with the least amount of men left on base will most likely be the teams that find trouble getting men on in the first place. Because we are quantifying efficiency, the results will be opportunity independent -- meaning that the most efficient offenses are not necessarily the ones that scored the most, but rather converted their opportunities into runs at a higher rate.

Enter run expectancy totals.

Now, run expectancies are an important part of the game. They determine the weights that go into wOBA and tell us the relative worth of each event in context of its run value. But rarely do we see run expectancies applied to a whole team to evaluate their overall offensive attack. Looking at these run expectancies, we will isolate the teams that truly had an efficient offensive attack.

METHODOLOGY

To begin, I created a run expectancy matrix in Retrosheet for each season since 2002.

Then, I calculated the run expectancies for each team, in every situation -- bases empty, one out; empty, 2 outs; and so on.

Using the actual run expectancy totals for each team, we adjusted by the league average run expectancy for each situation.

NOTE: The league average run expectancy is from the year in which the team played -- so as to account for the scoring environment -- (actual/league_average)*100

Next, we take the average of those adjusted totals to represent the overall offensive efficiencies of each team. However, these totals need to be adjusted by park factors; this will take care of the run-scoring environment in a given park.

Along the way I compiled offensive efficiency into a single metric -- EFF + -- and created it as a "plus stat" for optimal presentation.

The population is of 330 teams spanning 11 seasons. The average EFF + was 100 with a standard deviation around 4.

The top 5 are as follows:

RESULTS

2003 Kansas City Royals -- oEFF: 113.27

Surprisingly, the 2003 Kansas City Royals top our list. With the bases loaded in 2003 the Royals had an accumulative run expectancy of nearing 2.5. Small sample size aside, the Royals converted when the bases were full. With two outs in general the 2003 Kansas City Royals had an oEFF of 130. In the end, the Royals managed to score 836 runs in 2003. Despite their effective offense, they finished a measly 83-79, good for third in the AL Central. In the end, it was the Royals' astronomical ability to perform especially well with the bases loaded and no one out (with an oEFF of 180) that catapulted them to the top of our list.

Below is a table that details situational offensive performance.

oEFF MATRIX:

Team	Outs	Bases	oEFF
KC	0	Empty	125.54
KC	0	1B only	116.64
KC	0	2B only	135.45
KC	0	1B & 2B	138.54
KC	0	3B only	84.98
KC	0	1B & 3B	116.17
KC	0	2B & 3B	130.46
KC	0	Loaded	178.68
KC	1	Empty	126.36
KC	1	1B only	126.13
KC	1	2B only	140.71
KC	1	1B & 2B	132.34
KC	1	3B only	149.78
KC	1	1B & 3B	121.62
KC	1	2B & 3B	140.65
KC	1	Loaded	131.27
KC	2	Empty	123.10
KC	2	1B only	125.47
KC	2	2B only	123.52
KC	2	1B & 2B	124.36
KC	2	3B only	118.52
KC	2	1B & 3B	168.99
KC	2	2B & 3B	120.81
KC	2	Loaded	134.68

Click here for the 2003 Kansas City Royals roster

2011 St. Louis Cardinals -- oEFF: 110.90

The 2011 World Series champs place second in offensive efficiency. There was no doubt that this team was clutch and great in converting base-runners into runs. In addition, the Cards led the National League in Runs/G, BA, OBP, OPS+, you name it. This team was among the decade leaders in run expectancy with the bases loaded with 2 outs and 1 out, also converting at a high rate with second and third base occupied.

oEFF MATRIX:

Team	Outs	Bases	oEFF
STL	0	Empty	98.08
STL	0	1B only	105.03
STL	0	2B only	102.61
STL	0	1B & 2B	102.16
STL	0	3B only	103.94
STL	0	1B & 3B	87.24
STL	0	2B & 3B	124.06
STL	0	Loaded	81.56
STL	1	Empty	102.71
STL	1	1B only	103.26
STL	1	2B only	99.67
STL	1	1B & 2B	114.02
STL	1	3B only	117.77
STL	1	1B & 3B	86.47
STL	1	2B & 3B	146.02
STL	1	Loaded	146.63
STL	2	Empty	97.72
STL	2	1B only	103.03
STL	2	2B only	103.69
STL	2	1B & 2B	110.40
STL	2	3B only	98.33
STL	2	1B & 3B	118.64
STL	2	2B & 3B	141.64
STL	2	Loaded	202.25

Click here for the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals roster

2010 Colorado Rockies -- oEFF: 110.83

The 2010 Rockies featured a devastating 3-4 combo of Cargo and Tulo, having fantastic years simultaneously. Because of Coors' high homerun rate, the Rockies had above league average rates for all two out situations due to the likelihood of a well timed home run. The Rockies were especially effective with two outs and a runner on third with a oEFF of 160.

oEFF MATRIX:

Team	Outs	Bases	oEFF
COL	0	Empty	121.70
COL	0	1B only	113.85
COL	0	2B only	137.37
COL	0	1B & 2B	99.66
COL	0	3B only	106.85
COL	0	1B & 3B	121.40
COL	0	2B & 3B	123.24
COL	0	Loaded	92.47
COL	1	Empty	120.43
COL	1	1B only	120.68
COL	1	2B only	140.00
COL	1	1B & 2B	117.72
COL	1	3B only	138.69
COL	1	1B & 3B	126.22
COL	1	2B & 3B	124.71
COL	1	Loaded	115.57
COL	2	Empty	119.37
COL	2	1B only	133.09
COL	2	2B only	111.96
COL	2	1B & 2B	140.39
COL	2	3B only	160.37
COL	2	1B & 3B	139.97
COL	2	2B & 3B	101.87
COL	2	Loaded	121.14

Click here for the 2010 Colorado Rockies roster

2012 Texas Rangers -- oEFF: 110.71

The 2012 Texas Rangers featured a stacked lineup that was capable of hitting a ball out of the ballpark 1-9. This is evident by their 128 oEFF with 2 outs and a man on first, where they were 28% times more likely to score in that situation compared to the average team that year. With zero on and zero out, the Rangers had a 118 oEFF -- 18% more likely to score than league average run expectancy would suggest.

oEFF MATRX:

Team	Outs	Bases	oEFF
TEX	0	Empty	118.58
TEX	0	1B only	109.32
TEX	0	2B only	134.20
TEX	0	1B & 2B	110.76
TEX	0	3B only	107.02
TEX	0	1B & 3B	98.20
TEX	0	2B & 3B	132.08
TEX	0	Loaded	117.90
TEX	1	Empty	116.42
TEX	1	1B only	112.98
TEX	1	2B only	127.20
TEX	1	1B & 2B	123.59
TEX	1	3B only	114.21
TEX	1	1B & 3B	108.49
TEX	1	2B & 3B	149.31
TEX	1	Loaded	159.33
TEX	2	Empty	134.92
TEX	2	1B only	128.06
TEX	2	2B only	111.20
TEX	2	1B & 2B	101.34
TEX	2	3B only	96.69
TEX	2	1B & 3B	122.81
TEX	2	2B & 3B	147.45
TEX	2	Loaded	146.62

Click here for the 2012 Texas Rangers roster

2007 New York Yankees -- oEFF 110.55

Finally, the 2007 Yankees round out the top 5. In particular, the Yankees had an oEFF of 116 with a no one on and none out, a 141 with bases loaded and no one out, and a 129 with 2 outs and nobody on.

oEFF MATRIX:

Team	Outs	Bases	oEFF
NYY	0	Empty	116.82
NYY	0	1B only	120.35
NYY	0	2B only	123.35
NYY	0	1B & 2B	111.14
NYY	0	3B only	161.16
NYY	0	1B & 3B	125.66
NYY	0	2B & 3B	142.48
NYY	0	Loaded	141.64
NYY	1	Empty	106.00
NYY	1	1B only	93.85
NYY	1	2B only	115.84
NYY	1	1B & 2B	110.60
NYY	1	3B only	120.38
NYY	1	1B & 3B	126.79
NYY	1	2B & 3B	115.04
NYY	1	Loaded	120.73
NYY	2	Empty	129.43
NYY	2	1B only	115.98
NYY	2	2B only	122.57
NYY	2	1B & 2B	102.97
NYY	2	3B only	125.97
NYY	2	1B & 3B	118.46
NYY	2	2B & 3B	126.99
NYY	2	Loaded	114.84

Click here for the 2007 New York Yankees roster

Lastly -- here is the bottom 25 in oEFF, descending:

Team	Season	oEFF
SF	2011	85.636
PIT	2012	88.958
ATL	2011	89.436
HOU	2005	89.693
LAD	2012	89.830
SF	2008	92.228
LAD	2003	92.269
SEA	2010	92.376
LAD	2009	92.412
SF	2012	92.482
STL	2010	92.664
SEA	2012	92.802
SD	2004	92.838
PHI	2003	92.895
WAS	2007	92.937
SD	2009	92.981
SD	2002	93.001
LAA	2006	93.330
LAA	2011	93.391
SD	2012	93.502
OAK	2003	93.588
NYM	2009	93.640
HOU	2004	93.793
LAA	2010	93.922
LAD	2006	94.113

*Full Leaderboards are located here*

CONCLUSION

In future installments we will investigate if offensive efficiency correlates well year-to-year. We will also run tests to see if an efficient offense means a winning team.

Also, tune in to witness how we can find a team's clutch factor through their efficiency totals.

Max Weinstein can be contacted on twitter Follow @MaxWeinstein21