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What follows is a thorough analysis of my consensus top 190 prospects. I have done this in 2011 and 2012 and have always received extremely positive reviews of it, so here were are for a third time!
Lists
Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)
Minor League Ball (John Sickels)
Definitions
Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.
Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.
Surprising Inclusion: The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most four lists.
Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least eight other lists. For Project Prospect this includes players only in the top 50 consensus. For Baseball Prospect Nation and John Sickels, this includes only their top 100 ranked players.
Consensus Rank: To determine overall rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 100 points and a 100 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked first.
2080 | BA | BB | BP | BPN | ESPN | FG | MiLB | MLB | P361 | PP | SC | |
Likes | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
Dislikes | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Inclusions | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Exclusions | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
All Excursions | 9 | 13 | 18 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 22 |
2080 (Bradley Ankrom)
Ranking philosophy: "Favor upside over probability, but heavily consider probability when ranking, maybe more than some others."
Likes:
Name | 2080 | Con. Rank | SD |
Jarred Cosart | 77 | 100 | 5.69 |
Dislikes:
Name | 2080 | Con. Rank | SD |
Wil Myers | 10 | 4 | -4.41 |
Mason Williams | 78 | 40 | -3.31 |
Miguel Sano | 30 | 15 | -2.72 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | 2080 | Lists |
Gary Brown | 73 | 4 |
Lewis Brinson | 80 | 4 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Luis Heredia | 84 | 8 |
J.R. Graham | 87 | 8 |
A.J. Cole | 92 | 8 |
Baseball America
Ranking philosophy: "Seven people contributed to the voting this year. Each person compiled a personal top 150, and we reviewed the composite numbers and made adjustments before locking down the final list. The consensus shows us who has the broadest base of support, and gives us a great starting point for the final list. The most important part of the Top 100 meeting is an examination of players risk factors. The weaknesses that could undo players, rather than their strengths -- not enough power for a corner spot, for example -- and look at best and worst case players for each factor. We look at those factors when we're making adjustments to the list and deciding which players to put in the final few spots."
Likes:
Name | BA | Con. Rank | SD |
Andrew Heaney | 43 | 99 | 2.62 |
Dislikes:
Name | BA | Con. Rank | SD |
Taijuan Walker | 18 | 7 | -2.07 |
Jameson Taillon | 19 | 10 | -2.05 |
Gary Sanchez | 57 | 35 | -2.04 |
Aaron Sanchez | 65 | 37 | -2.03 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | BA | Lists |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | 42 | 1 |
Lance McCullers | 50 | 3 |
Avisail Garcia | 74 | 2 |
Marcell Ozuna | 75 | 2 |
Didi Gregorius | 80 | 3 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Rymer Liriano | 70 | 8 |
Zach Lee | 86 | 8 |
A.J. Cole | 92 | 8 |
Baseball Prospect Nation
Likes:
Name | BPN | Con. Rank | SD |
Leonys Martin | 61 | 101 | 3.07 |
J.R. Graham | 28 | 87 | 2.68 |
Lucas Giolito | 14 | 69 | 2.45 |
A.J. Cole | 74 | 92 | 2.19 |
Bruce Rondon | 85 | 102 | 2.10 |
Dislikes:
Name | BPN | Con. Rank | SD |
Brian Goodwin | 117 | 58 | -4.29 |
Kolten Wong | 137 | 65 | -4.13 |
Jake Odorizzi | 150 | 68 | -4.05 |
Matt Davidson | 136 | 81 | -3.85 |
Dylan Bundy | 5 | 2 | -2.68 |
Travis d'Arnaud | 31 | 12 | -2.65 |
Addison Russell | 69 | 33 | -2.34 |
Hak-Ju Lee | 133 | 76 | -2.01 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | BPN | Lists |
Adalberto Mondesi | 53 | 3 |
Jorge Alfaro | 55 | 4 |
Tyler Thornburg | 73 | 4 |
Michael Choice | 79 | 3 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Tyler Austin | 82 | 8 |
Baseball Prospectus
Ranking Philosophy: "With countless emails, calls, texts, IMs, letters, and Candygrams exchanged between members of the BP team and members of the baseball industry, we played prospect Nostradamus, spelunking for information like we had never spelunked before. It was a stressful time, but also one of the most rewarding of my career, a daily debate about prospects that consumed all available energy and intellect."
Likes:
Name | BP | Con. Rank | SD |
Arodys Vizcaino | 54 | 98 | 2.99 |
Luis Heredia | 53 | 84 | 2.78 |
Dislikes:
Name | BP | Con. Rank | SD |
Christian Yelich | 23 | 11 | -2.44 |
Wil Myers | 7 | 4 | -2.20 |
Jedd Gyorko | 84 | 49 | -2.08 |
Alex Meyer | 88 | 60 | -2.00 |
Robert Stephenson | 78 | 51 | -2.00 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | BP | Lists |
Adalberto Mondesi | 58 | 3 |
Jorge Alfaro | 76 | 4 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Courtney Hawkins | 71 | 10 |
Tyler Austin | 82 | 8 |
Slade Heathcott | 85 | 8 |
A.J. Cole | 92 | 8 |
Bullpen Banter
Ranking Philosophy: "We are attempting to project the top 100 future major league players out of a vast pool of incomplete players whose skill level is always in flux. A player's "stock" can go through wild fluctuations throughout a season, and I would venture to say that it's rare to find a legitimate prospect that doesn't go through such an ebb and flow."
Likes:
Name | BB | Con. Rank | SD |
Roberto Osuna | 70 | 95 | 3.00 |
Luis Heredia | 56 | 84 | 2.51 |
Tyler Austin | 60 | 82 | 2.21 |
Leonys Martin | 74 | 101 | 2.07 |
Dislikes:
Name | BB | Con. Rank | SD |
Oscar Taveras | 8 | 2 | -3.15 |
Billy Hamilton | 55 | 23 | -2.46 |
Miguel Sano | 28 | 15 | -2.36 |
Carlos Martinez | 47 | 32 | -2.10 |
Christian Yelich | 21 | 11 | -2.03 |
Trevor Bauer | 38 | 19 | -2.01 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | BB | Lists |
Joe Ross | 54 | 3 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Rymer Liriano | 70 | 8 |
Yasiel Puig | 73 | 9 |
Hak-Ju Lee | 76 | 8 |
Jesse Biddle | 78 | 10 |
Tony Cingrani | 80 | 10 |
Matt Davidson | 81 | 8 |
J.R. Graham | 87 | 8 |
ESPN (Keith Law)
Ranking Philosophy: "When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you."
Likes:
Name | ESPN | Con. Rank | SD |
Jarred Cosart | 86 | 100 | 3.46 |
Tyler Austin | 52 | 82 | 3.02 |
Jonathan Schoop | 50 | 93 | 2.99 |
Kyle Gibson | 41 | 77 | 2.58 |
Slade Heathcott | 57 | 85 | 2.53 |
Corey Seager | 46 | 96 | 2.33 |
Arodys Vizcaino | 64 | 98 | 2.31 |
Dorssys Paulino | 56 | 90 | 2.24 |
Daniel Corcino | 72 | 91 | 2.02 |
Dislikes:
Name | ESPN | Con. Rank | SD |
Mike Olt | 71 | 27 | -2.85 |
Javier Baez | 31 | 18 | -2.83 |
Matt Barnes | 79 | 38 | -2.56 |
Noah Syndergaard | 97 | 45 | -2.43 |
Jameson Taillon | 20 | 10 | -2.28 |
Jose Fernandez | 16 | 6 | -2.11 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | ESPN | Lists |
Eddie Rosario | 65 | 2 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Nolan Arenado | 53 | 10 |
Michael Wacha | 72 | 9 |
Yasiel Puig | 73 | 9 |
James Paxton | 75 | 9 |
Yordano Ventura | 83 | 9 |
Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)
Ranking Philosophy: "I talk to multiple contacts within the industry (mostly scouts and front office staff) when creating my Top 15 prospects and Top 100 lists. Along with insider information, I also utilize my own opinions based on live game observations and video."
Likes:
Name | FG | Con. Rank | SD |
Jonathan Schoop | 57 | 93 | 2.50 |
Delino DeShields Jr. | 52 | 88 | 2.22 |
Julio Teheran | 19 | 39 | 2.16 |
Daniel Corcino | 71 | 91 | 2.13 |
Dislikes:
Name | FG | Con. Rank | SD |
Albert Almora | 51 | 30 | -2.10 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | FG | Lists |
Carlos Sanchez | 64 | 1 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
James Paxton | 75 | 9 |
Wily Peralta | 79 | 10 |
Tyler Austin | 82 | 8 |
Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)
Ranking Philosophy: "Each scout was asked to anonymously provide his own top 50. An AP poll-type format was used. If, say, a scout put Profar in the top spot, he would get 50 points; the second prospect gets 49 points, and so on, down to one point for the 50th prospect on each list."
Likes:
Name | MLB | Con. Rank | SD |
Jarred Cosart | 89 | 100 | 2.72 |
Kyle Gibson | 49 | 77 | 2.01 |
Dislikes:
Name | MLB | Con. Rank | SD |
Kyle Crick | 86 | 57 | -2.33 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | MLB | Lists |
Didi Gregorius | 63 | 3 |
Ethan Martin | 80 | 1 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Luis Heredia | 84 | 8 |
Slade Heathcott | 85 | 8 |
J.R. Graham | 87 | 8 |
Minor League Ball (John Sickels)
Ranking Philosophy: "It is meant to be useful for both general baseball purposes and fantasy owners. As a result, it presents a balance between long-term upside and present ability. I tend to favor players who are closer to the majors than those who are far away."
Likes:
Name | MiLB | Con. Rank | SD |
Tyler Austin | 58 | 82 | 2.41 |
Roberto Osuna | 75 | 95 | 2.40 |
Dislikes:
Name | MiLB | Con. Rank | SD |
Jonathan Singleton | 57 | 29 | -2.70 |
Nick Castellanos | 67 | 25 | -2.57 |
David Dahl | 69 | 42 | -2.40 |
Taijuan Walker | 19 | 7 | -2.26 |
Wil Myers | 7 | 4 | -2.20 |
Mason Williams | 64 | 40 | -2.09 |
George Springer | 72 | 46 | -2.04 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | MiLB | Lists |
Brad Miller | 48 | 1 |
Lance McCullers | 66 | 3 |
Chris Stratton | 73 | 4 |
Eddie Rosario | 79 | 2 |
Surprising Exclusions: None
Project Prospect
Likes:
Name | PP | Con. Rank | SD |
Adam Eaton | 38 | 89 | 2.13 |
Dislikes:
Name | PP | Con. Rank | SD |
Jurickson Profar | 3 | 1 | -2.97 |
Tyler Skaggs | 25 | 13 | -2.35 |
Gerrit Cole | 10 | 5 | -2.13 |
Albert Almora | 50 | 30 | -2.00 |
Surprising Inclusions: None
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Julio Teheran | 39 | 11 |
Noah Syndergaard | 45 | 11 |
Max Fried | 47 | 11 |
Kaleb Cowart | 48 | 11 |
Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)
Likes:
Name | P361 | Con. Rank | SD |
Bruce Rondon | 78 | 102 | 2.96 |
Tyler Austin | 53 | 82 | 2.92 |
Dan Straily | 62 | 94 | 2.46 |
Clayton Blackburn | 64 | 97 | 2.44 |
Jonathan Schoop | 63 | 93 | 2.08 |
Gregory Polanco | 34 | 54 | 2.08 |
Dislikes:
Name | P361 | Con. Rank | SD |
Kyle Zimmer | 49 | 28 | -2.11 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | P361 | Lists |
D.J. Davis | 75 | 1 |
Marcell Ozuna | 79 | 2 |
Jacob Realmuto | 80 | 1 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Chris Archer | 44 | 11 |
Nick Franklin | 55 | 11 |
Casey Kelly | 64 | 10 |
Kyle Gibson | 77 | 9 |
Yordano Ventura | 83 | 9 |
Luis Heredia | 84 | 8 |
Zach Lee | 86 | 8 |
Scout
Likes:
Name | SC | Con. Rank | SD |
Jarred Cosart | 85 | 100 | 3.71 |
Clayton Blackburn | 63 | 97 | 2.51 |
Zach Lee | 52 | 86 | 2.42 |
Hak-Ju Lee | 23 | 76 | 2.22 |
Matt Davidson | 50 | 81 | 2.17 |
Dan Straily | 66 | 94 | 2.16 |
Tyler Austin | 62 | 82 | 2.01 |
Dislikes:
Name | SC | Con. Rank | SD |
Jose Fernandez | 21 | 6 | -3.17 |
Byron Buxton | 53 | 17 | -2.81 |
Taylor Guerrieri | 71 | 41 | -2.72 |
Jorge Soler | 67 | 35 | -2.38 |
Xander Bogaerts | 27 | 9 | -2.36 |
Zack Wheeler | 17 | 8 | -2.26 |
Surprising Inclusions:
Name | SC | Lists |
Christian Bethancourt | 65 | 3 |
Michael Choice | 72 | 3 |
Gary Brown | 76 | 4 |
Tyler Thornburg | 79 | 4 |
Surprising Exclusions:
Name | Con. Rank | Lists |
Austin Hedges | 50 | 10 |
Gregory Polanco | 54 | 10 |
Allen Webster | 67 | 10 |
Lucas Giolito | 69 | 9 |
Kyle Gibson | 77 | 9 |