Taking a Look at 2013 Pre-Season Prospect Rankings

What follows is a thorough analysis of my consensus top 190 prospects. I have done this in 2011 and 2012 and have always received extremely positive reviews of it, so here were are for a third time!

Lists

2080 (Bradley Ankrom)

Baseball America

Baseball Prospect Nation

Baseball Prospectus

Bullpen Banter

ESPN (Keith Law)

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)

Minor League Ball (John Sickels)

Project Prospect

Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)

Scout

Definitions

Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.

Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.

Surprising Inclusion: The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most four lists.

Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least eight other lists. For Project Prospect this includes players only in the top 50 consensus. For Baseball Prospect Nation and John Sickels, this includes only their top 100 ranked players.

Consensus Rank: To determine overall rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 100 points and a 100 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked first.

	2080	BA	BB	BP	BPN	ESPN	FG	MiLB	MLB	P361	PP	SC
Likes	1	1	4	2	5	9	4	2	2	6	1	7
Dislikes	3	4	6	5	8	6	1	7	1	1	4	6
Inclusions	2	5	1	2	4	1	1	4	2	3	0	4
Exclusions	3	3	7	4	1	5	3	0	3	7	0	5
All Excursions	9	13	18	13	18	21	9	13	8	17	5	22

2080 (Bradley Ankrom)

Ranking philosophy: "Favor upside over probability, but heavily consider probability when ranking, maybe more than some others."

Likes:

Name	2080	Con. Rank	SD
Jarred Cosart	77	100	5.69

Dislikes:

Name	2080	Con. Rank	SD
Wil Myers	10	4	-4.41
Mason Williams	78	40	-3.31
Miguel Sano	30	15	-2.72

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	2080	Lists
Gary Brown	73	4
Lewis Brinson	80	4

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Luis Heredia	84	8
J.R. Graham	87	8
A.J. Cole	92	8

Baseball America

Ranking philosophy: "Seven people contributed to the voting this year. Each person compiled a personal top 150, and we reviewed the composite numbers and made adjustments before locking down the final list. The consensus shows us who has the broadest base of support, and gives us a great starting point for the final list. The most important part of the Top 100 meeting is an examination of players risk factors. The weaknesses that could undo players, rather than their strengths -- not enough power for a corner spot, for example -- and look at best and worst case players for each factor. We look at those factors when we're making adjustments to the list and deciding which players to put in the final few spots."

Likes:

Name	BA	Con. Rank	SD
Andrew Heaney	43	99	2.62

Dislikes:

Name	BA	Con. Rank	SD
Taijuan Walker	18	7	-2.07
Jameson Taillon	19	10	-2.05
Gary Sanchez	57	35	-2.04
Aaron Sanchez	65	37	-2.03

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	BA	Lists
Hyun-Jin Ryu	42	1
Lance McCullers	50	3
Avisail Garcia	74	2
Marcell Ozuna	75	2
Didi Gregorius	80	3

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Rymer Liriano	70	8
Zach Lee	86	8
A.J. Cole	92	8

Baseball Prospect Nation

Likes:

Name	BPN	Con. Rank	SD
Leonys Martin	61	101	3.07
J.R. Graham	28	87	2.68
Lucas Giolito	14	69	2.45
A.J. Cole	74	92	2.19
Bruce Rondon	85	102	2.10

Dislikes:

Name	BPN	Con. Rank	SD
Brian Goodwin	117	58	-4.29
Kolten Wong	137	65	-4.13
Jake Odorizzi	150	68	-4.05
Matt Davidson	136	81	-3.85
Dylan Bundy	5	2	-2.68
Travis d'Arnaud	31	12	-2.65
Addison Russell	69	33	-2.34
Hak-Ju Lee	133	76	-2.01

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	BPN	Lists
Adalberto Mondesi	53	3
Jorge Alfaro	55	4
Tyler Thornburg	73	4
Michael Choice	79	3

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Tyler Austin	82	8

Baseball Prospectus

Ranking Philosophy: "With countless emails, calls, texts, IMs, letters, and Candygrams exchanged between members of the BP team and members of the baseball industry, we played prospect Nostradamus, spelunking for information like we had never spelunked before. It was a stressful time, but also one of the most rewarding of my career, a daily debate about prospects that consumed all available energy and intellect."

Likes:

Name	BP	Con. Rank	SD
Arodys Vizcaino	54	98	2.99
Luis Heredia	53	84	2.78

Dislikes:

Name	BP	Con. Rank	SD
Christian Yelich	23	11	-2.44
Wil Myers	7	4	-2.20
Jedd Gyorko	84	49	-2.08
Alex Meyer	88	60	-2.00
Robert Stephenson	78	51	-2.00

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	BP	Lists
Adalberto Mondesi	58	3
Jorge Alfaro	76	4

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Courtney Hawkins	71	10
Tyler Austin	82	8
Slade Heathcott	85	8
A.J. Cole	92	8

Bullpen Banter

Ranking Philosophy: "We are attempting to project the top 100 future major league players out of a vast pool of incomplete players whose skill level is always in flux. A player's "stock" can go through wild fluctuations throughout a season, and I would venture to say that it's rare to find a legitimate prospect that doesn't go through such an ebb and flow."

Likes:

Name	BB	Con. Rank	SD
Roberto Osuna	70	95	3.00
Luis Heredia	56	84	2.51
Tyler Austin	60	82	2.21
Leonys Martin	74	101	2.07

Dislikes:

Name	BB	Con. Rank	SD
Oscar Taveras	8	2	-3.15
Billy Hamilton	55	23	-2.46
Miguel Sano	28	15	-2.36
Carlos Martinez	47	32	-2.10
Christian Yelich	21	11	-2.03
Trevor Bauer	38	19	-2.01

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	BB	Lists
Joe Ross	54	3

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Rymer Liriano	70	8
Yasiel Puig	73	9
Hak-Ju Lee	76	8
Jesse Biddle	78	10
Tony Cingrani	80	10
Matt Davidson	81	8
J.R. Graham	87	8

ESPN (Keith Law)

Ranking Philosophy: "When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you."

Likes:

Name	ESPN	Con. Rank	SD
Jarred Cosart	86	100	3.46
Tyler Austin	52	82	3.02
Jonathan Schoop	50	93	2.99
Kyle Gibson	41	77	2.58
Slade Heathcott	57	85	2.53
Corey Seager	46	96	2.33
Arodys Vizcaino	64	98	2.31
Dorssys Paulino	56	90	2.24
Daniel Corcino	72	91	2.02

Dislikes:

Name	ESPN	Con. Rank	SD
Mike Olt	71	27	-2.85
Javier Baez	31	18	-2.83
Matt Barnes	79	38	-2.56
Noah Syndergaard	97	45	-2.43
Jameson Taillon	20	10	-2.28
Jose Fernandez	16	6	-2.11

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	ESPN	Lists
Eddie Rosario	65	2

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Nolan Arenado	53	10
Michael Wacha	72	9
Yasiel Puig	73	9
James Paxton	75	9
Yordano Ventura	83	9

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

Ranking Philosophy: "I talk to multiple contacts within the industry (mostly scouts and front office staff) when creating my Top 15 prospects and Top 100 lists. Along with insider information, I also utilize my own opinions based on live game observations and video."

Likes:

Name	FG	Con. Rank	SD
Jonathan Schoop	57	93	2.50
Delino DeShields Jr.	52	88	2.22
Julio Teheran	19	39	2.16
Daniel Corcino	71	91	2.13

Dislikes:

Name	FG	Con. Rank	SD
Albert Almora	51	30	-2.10

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	FG	Lists
Carlos Sanchez	64	1

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
James Paxton	75	9
Wily Peralta	79	10
Tyler Austin	82	8

Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)

Ranking Philosophy: "Each scout was asked to anonymously provide his own top 50. An AP poll-type format was used. If, say, a scout put Profar in the top spot, he would get 50 points; the second prospect gets 49 points, and so on, down to one point for the 50th prospect on each list."

Likes:

Name	MLB	Con. Rank	SD
Jarred Cosart	89	100	2.72
Kyle Gibson	49	77	2.01

Dislikes:

Name	MLB	Con. Rank	SD
Kyle Crick	86	57	-2.33

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	MLB	Lists
Didi Gregorius	63	3
Ethan Martin	80	1

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Luis Heredia	84	8
Slade Heathcott	85	8
J.R. Graham	87	8

Minor League Ball (John Sickels)

Ranking Philosophy: "It is meant to be useful for both general baseball purposes and fantasy owners. As a result, it presents a balance between long-term upside and present ability. I tend to favor players who are closer to the majors than those who are far away."

Likes:

Name	MiLB	Con. Rank	SD
Tyler Austin	58	82	2.41
Roberto Osuna	75	95	2.40

Dislikes:

Name	MiLB	Con. Rank	SD
Jonathan Singleton	57	29	-2.70
Nick Castellanos	67	25	-2.57
David Dahl	69	42	-2.40
Taijuan Walker	19	7	-2.26
Wil Myers	7	4	-2.20
Mason Williams	64	40	-2.09
George Springer	72	46	-2.04

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	MiLB	Lists
Brad Miller	48	1
Lance McCullers	66	3
Chris Stratton	73	4
Eddie Rosario	79	2

Surprising Exclusions: None

Project Prospect

Likes:

Name	PP	Con. Rank	SD
Adam Eaton	38	89	2.13

Dislikes:

Name	PP	Con. Rank	SD
Jurickson Profar	3	1	-2.97
Tyler Skaggs	25	13	-2.35
Gerrit Cole	10	5	-2.13
Albert Almora	50	30	-2.00

Surprising Inclusions: None

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Julio Teheran	39	11
Noah Syndergaard	45	11
Max Fried	47	11
Kaleb Cowart	48	11

Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)

Likes:

Name	P361	Con. Rank	SD
Bruce Rondon	78	102	2.96
Tyler Austin	53	82	2.92
Dan Straily	62	94	2.46
Clayton Blackburn	64	97	2.44
Jonathan Schoop	63	93	2.08
Gregory Polanco	34	54	2.08

Dislikes:

Name	P361	Con. Rank	SD
Kyle Zimmer	49	28	-2.11

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	P361	Lists
D.J. Davis	75	1
Marcell Ozuna	79	2
Jacob Realmuto	80	1

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Chris Archer	44	11
Nick Franklin	55	11
Casey Kelly	64	10
Kyle Gibson	77	9
Yordano Ventura	83	9
Luis Heredia	84	8
Zach Lee	86	8

Scout

Likes:

Name	SC	Con. Rank	SD
Jarred Cosart	85	100	3.71
Clayton Blackburn	63	97	2.51
Zach Lee	52	86	2.42
Hak-Ju Lee	23	76	2.22
Matt Davidson	50	81	2.17
Dan Straily	66	94	2.16
Tyler Austin	62	82	2.01

Dislikes:

Name	SC	Con. Rank	SD
Jose Fernandez	21	6	-3.17
Byron Buxton	53	17	-2.81
Taylor Guerrieri	71	41	-2.72
Jorge Soler	67	35	-2.38
Xander Bogaerts	27	9	-2.36
Zack Wheeler	17	8	-2.26

Surprising Inclusions:

Name	SC	Lists
Christian Bethancourt	65	3
Michael Choice	72	3
Gary Brown	76	4
Tyler Thornburg	79	4

Surprising Exclusions:

Name	Con. Rank	Lists
Austin Hedges	50	10
Gregory Polanco	54	10
Allen Webster	67	10
Lucas Giolito	69	9
Kyle Gibson	77	9