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In the third installment of the wSalary series, we will take a retrospective look at the best valued contracts of the 2012 season.
In order to do this, we have to tweak the wSalary formula to be descriptive rather than predictive, so that we can look back on last season and describe the value rather than predict the 2013 total, like we did here last week.
Formula
The formula takes into account the 2012 salary and the WAR*$/WAR weighted. The sum is added up and scaled by the data-set's correlation to the actual season salary:
The $/WAR for this data-set includes all players with at least 150 PA which is around $2,636,972, significantly higher than the $/WAR that we used in previous models for qualified batters. The reason being is that platoon players have become more prevalent in the game leading to higher salaries -- paying for two players to fill one role costs more than a single starter. It is also worth noting that the 2012 season had the least amount of qualified players (min. 3.1 PA/game) since 1996.
Taking the above into account, we will attempt to quantify 2012 wSalary with the following formula:
0.85*(2012 Salary+(WAR*$/WAR)*0.628)
With this model, we can find the difference between 2012 wSalary and actual 2012 salary, which we will call (+/-) dValue. In short, wSalary - Salary = dValue.
Top 25
| Num | Name | Age | 2012 WAR | 2012 Salary | 2012 wSalary | dValue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buster Posey | 25 | 8 | $615,000.00 | $11,819,556.76 | $11,204,556.76 |
| 2 | Andrew McCutchen | 25 | 7.4 | $708,333.00 | $11,051,630.50 | $10,343,297.50 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | 28 | 7.9 | $7,111,111.00 | $17,200,043.13 | $10,088,932.13 |
| 4 | Chase Headley | 28 | 7.5 | $3,475,000.00 | $13,544,509.24 | $10,069,509.24 |
| 5 | Jason Heyward | 22 | 6.6 | $565,000.00 | $9,800,116.45 | $9,235,116.45 |
| 6 | Robinson Cano | 29 | 7.8 | $14,000,000.00 | $22,914,389.54 | $8,914,389.54 |
| 7 | David Wright | 29 | 7.8 | $15,250,000.00 | $23,976,889.54 | $8,726,889.54 |
| 8 | Aramis Ramirez | 34 | 6.5 | $6,000,000.00 | $14,278,664.22 | $8,278,664.22 |
| 9 | Yadier Molina | 29 | 6.5 | $7,000,000.00 | $15,128,661.03 | $8,128,661.03 |
| 10 | Michael Bourn | 29 | 6.4 | $6,845,000.00 | $14,855,701.14 | $8,010,701.14 |
| 11 | Aaron Hill | 30 | 6.2 | $5,500,000.00 | $13,430,032.01 | $7,930,032.01 |
| 12 | Austin Jackson | 25 | 5.5 | $500,000.00 | $8,191,559.63 | $7,691,559.63 |
| 13 | Ben Zobrist | 31 | 5.9 | $4,687,300.00 | $12,315,607.99 | $7,628,307.99 |
| 14 | Martin Prado | 28 | 5.9 | $4,750,000.00 | $12,368,901.08 | $7,618,901.08 |
| 15 | Alex Gordon | 28 | 5.9 | $4,775,000.00 | $12,390,151.08 | $7,615,151.08 |
| 16 | Ian Desmond | 26 | 5.4 | $512,500.00 | $8,060,975.38 | $7,548,475.38 |
| 17 | Carlos Ruiz | 33 | 5.5 | $3,700,000.00 | $10,911,564.73 | $7,211,564.73 |
| 18 | Adrian Beltre | 33 | 6.5 | $15,000,000.00 | $21,928,663.58 | $6,928,663.58 |
| 19 | Miguel Cabrera | 29 | 7.1 | $21,000,000.00 | $27,875,920.34 | $6,875,920.34 |
| 20 | Joey Votto | 28 | 5.9 | $11,410,655.00 | $18,030,457.83 | $6,619,802.83 |
| 21 | Miguel Montero | 28 | 5 | $5,900,000.00 | $12,075,512.11 | $6,175,512.11 |
| 22 | Angel Pagan | 30 | 4.8 | $4,850,000.00 | $10,900,593.62 | $6,050,593.62 |
| 23 | Matt Wieters | 26 | 4.1 | $500,000.00 | $6,214,621.87 | $5,714,621.87 |
| 24 | Jon Jay | 27 | 4.1 | $504,000.00 | $6,218,022.51 | $5,714,022.51 |
| 25 | David Freese | 29 | 4.1 | $508,000.00 | $6,221,423.78 | $5,713,423.78 |
Bottom 25
| Num | Name | Age | WAR | 2012 Salary | 2012 wSalary | dValue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Howard | 32 | -1 | $20,000,000.00 | $15,587,921.55 | -$4,412,078.45 |
| 2 | Michael Young | 35 | -1.4 | $16,174,974.00 | $11,771,811.82 | -$4,403,162.18 |
| 3 | Jason Bay | 33 | -0.8 | $18,125,000.00 | $14,276,591.96 | -$3,848,408.04 |
| 4 | Chone Figgins | 34 | -1 | $9,500,000.00 | $6,662,922.82 | -$2,837,077.18 |
| 5 | Vernon Wells | 33 | 0.6 | $24,187,500.00 | $21,406,655.35 | -$2,780,844.65 |
| 6 | Jeff Francoeur | 28 | -1.2 | $6,750,000.00 | $4,042,999.23 | -$2,707,000.77 |
| 7 | Ryan Raburn | 31 | -1.5 | $2,100,000.00 | -$333,128.52 | -$2,433,128.52 |
| 8 | Carlos Lee | 36 | 0.3 | $19,000,000.00 | $16,573,652.61 | -$2,426,347.39 |
| 9 | Marlon Byrd | 34 | -1 | $6,500,000.00 | $4,112,922.82 | -$2,387,077.18 |
| 10 | Delmon Young | 26 | -0.7 | $6,750,000.00 | $4,749,047.38 | -$2,000,952.62 |
| 11 | Brennan Boesch | 27 | -1.3 | $502,500.00 | -$1,408,586.30 | -$1,911,086.30 |
| 12 | Greg Dobbs | 33 | -1.1 | $1,400,000.00 | -$363,287.70 | -$1,763,287.70 |
| 13 | Juan Rivera | 33 | -0.8 | $4,000,000.00 | $2,270,341.96 | -$1,729,658.04 |
| 14 | Wilson Valdez | 34 | -1.1 | $930,000.00 | -$762,787.06 | -$1,692,787.06 |
| 15 | Lucas Duda | 26 | -1.1 | $497,318.00 | -$1,130,571.86 | -$1,627,889.86 |
| 16 | Ty Wigginton | 34 | -0.7 | $4,000,000.00 | $2,411,552.48 | -$1,588,447.52 |
| 17 | Miguel Cairo | 38 | -1 | $1,000,000.00 | -$562,074.63 | -$1,562,074.63 |
| 18 | Danny Valencia | 27 | -1 | $515,000.00 | -$974,331.64 | -$1,489,331.64 |
| 19 | Yuniesky Betancourt | 30 | -0.8 | $2,000,000.00 | $570,340.04 | -$1,429,659.96 |
| 20 | Alex Rodriguez | 36 | 2.2 | $30,000,000.00 | $28,606,640.43 | -$1,393,359.58 |
| 21 | Ramon Hernandez | 36 | -0.6 | $3,200,000.00 | $1,872,763.64 | -$1,327,236.36 |
| 22 | Brent Lillibridge | 28 | -0.8 | $500,000.00 | -$704,661.23 | -$1,204,661.23 |
| 23 | Stephen Drew | 29 | 0.0 | $7,750,000.00 | $6,587,518.49 | -$1,162,481.51 |
| 24 | Franklin Gutierrez | 29 | -0.2 | $5,812,500.00 | $4,658,223.72 | -$1,154,276.28 |
| 25 | Orlando Hudson | 34 | -0.2 | $5,500,000.00 | $4,392,601.91 | -$1,107,398.10 |
No surprise, Posey represents the player who provided the most value to his team in context to what the Giants paid for him. An MVP, a World Series championship, and an 8 WAR season all on a $615,000 contract! It does not take a mathematical formula to look at Posey's 2012 season and notice the tremendous contributions he gave the Giants on a near-rookie contract.
Also, check out where Aramis Ramirez ranks, at 8. That is pretty impressive for a guy that many overlooked last offseason. He was worth about 230% more than he made last season -- tremendous value at a postion where it is hard to come by.
Braun is an interesting player to see on the list. At first, I had forgotten how affordable his extension turned out to be since he had signed it. Braun will be paid at most $19 million per season up until 2020, with an option for $20 million in 2021. For the time being, Braun will be making less than Shane Victorino until at least 2016 (on a per-season basis).
But on the bottom 25, we have some usual suspects:
It is no secret that Ryan Howard was serious dead weight on that Phillies' payroll last year. Jason Bay and Vernon Wells fall under the same category of sluggers turned slumpers.
Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young fall under the same category: former top prospects turned incumbent starters who should have paid their team for their starting spots.
A-Rod also finds himself in the list, at number 20. He's the only player on the list with a somewhat substantial positive WAR. He was playable but not for the amount due to him in 2012.
Rookies
One thing is missing here: rookies.
I thought I would separate rookies from the others because their dValue will be skewed by their rookie contracts. Nonetheless, here is the list, and the top three players are no surprise.
| Num | Name | WAR | Salary | wSalary | dValue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | 10 | $510,000.00 | $14,543,925.00 | $14,033,925.00 |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | 4.9 | $500,000.00 | $7,339,108.25 | $6,839,108.25 |
| 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | 3.1 | $6,500,000.00 | $9,899,231.75 | $3,399,231.75 |
| 4 | Norichika Aoki | 2.9 | $1,000,000.00 | $4,942,023.25 | $3,942,023.25 |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | 2.8 | $480,000.00 | $4,358,919.00 | $3,878,919.00 |
| 6 | Zack Cozart | 2.7 | $480,000.00 | $4,217,814.75 | $3,737,814.75 |
| 7 | Yasmani Grandal | 2.6 | $750,000.00 | $4,306,210.50 | $3,556,210.50 |
| 8 | Andrelton Simmons | 2.2 | $450,000.00 | $3,486,793.50 | $3,036,793.50 |
| 9 | Will Middlebrooks | 2.1 | $498,000.00 | $3,386,489.25 | $2,888,489.25 |
| 10 | Yonder Alonso | 2 | $1,000,000.00 | $3,672,085.00 | $2,672,085.00 |
So, you can see Trout was the most valuable player last season according to dValue by around $3 million over Posey.
Norichika "Grit King" Aoki is a rookie most overlooked; one that deserves more praise and attention than he has recieved so far.
This list is a little more predictable. It's really a list of top rookies rather than most valuable in the context of their contract. But because many of their contracts are so similar, it is no surprise to see that the list is descending by WAR.
Review
See who fell in between the full list of rankings is below:
What are your guys' thoughts on the results? Any surprises? Does it pass the eye-test?
For the next installment of the series we will adjust wSalary for age and service time.
You can contact Max Weinstein @MaxWeinstein21
