FanPost

My New Projection System at Work

I'm working on a projection system for hitters to project their big league career averages. Not season data or how they will progress through their career yet, just career averages based on similar players. The data, I feel, is pretty damn solid.

For a comparison, I am using the top 10 hitter from the 2006 Baseball America list and using data from 2005 and back. I use up to 3 years of data if available but less works, just a little more volatile. Stephen Drew was the most volatile player on this list but it was still very accurate. While there are deviations in each section, overall it does seem to point toward the players future success.

The age of debut seems poor at this point, often a year or more off but that is more related to opportunity and teams pushing their top talent.

Projected

Actual

2006 BA top 100 rank

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

SB

BB

K

AGE OF DEBUT

avg

obp

slg

ops

age

1. Delmon Young

0.276

0.325

0.480

0.805

7

43

135

21.64

0.284

0.317

0.425

0.742

20.349

2. Justin Upton

0.277

0.349

0.469

0.818

0

66

111

20.21

0.278

0.357

0.475

0.832

19.342

3. Brandon Wood

0.274

0.292

0.556

0.848

0

16

156

21.79

0.186

0.225

0.289

0.513

22.055

4. Jeremy Hermida

0.276

0.341

0.409

0.750

0

59

124

22.12

0.257

0.334

0.415

0.749

21.213

5. Stephen Drew

0.266

0.345

0.414

0.758

9

72

111

22.84

0.265

0.328

0.433

0.762

23.121

9. Lastings Milledge

0.270

0.340

0.426

0.766

0

64

117

22.42

0.269

0.328

0.395

0.723

21.055

11. Prince Fielder

0.293

0.352

0.567

0.918

0

55

138

22.21

0.287

0.393

0.538

0.931

21.035

12. Howie Kendrick

0.278

0.338

0.455

0.793

1

54

121

23.80

0.292

0.328

0.428

0.756

22.288

13. Alex Gordon

0.272

0.344

0.455

0.798

2

66

112

23.58

0.269

0.348

0.439

0.787

23.051

14. Andy Marte

0.294

0.351

0.533

0.883

0

53

132

21.42

0.218

0.277

0.358

0.635

21.229

Looking at the percent correlation to OPS, overall I'm happy with it. Delmon underachieved due to his ridiculous swinging habits. Brandon Wood was a colossal whiff but something about the 16 BB to 156 K ration should get your attention in my projection. It foretold the fact that Lastings Milledge was over rated and he even still under achieved. Even a predicted slugging of .567 wasn't enough for big Prince, as he has still outpaced my prediction. Andy Marte was a big ole whiff as well. I have no clue why. He was a hell of a prospect.

2006 BA top 100 rank

% Error - OPS

1. Delmon Young

-8.50%

2. Justin Upton

1.69%

3. Brandon Wood

-65.39%

4. Jeremy Hermida

-0.09%

5. Stephen Drew

0.50%

9. Lastings Milledge

-5.99%

11. Prince Fielder

1.36%

12. Howie Kendrick

-4.90%

13. Alex Gordon

-1.42%

14. Andy Marte

-39.07%

So, I think this is working. I will run the numbers on the top 100 hitting prospects for this year and email them out to anyone who has purchased my prospect percentages as soon as I'm done. It will probably be this weekend for all of the prospect draft happening. So if you want these for your draft, buy one here or click the right side bar at my site and let it guide you thru PayPal. Only $9.99.