I'm working on a projection system for hitters to project their big league career averages. Not season data or how they will progress through their career yet, just career averages based on similar players. The data, I feel, is pretty damn solid.
For a comparison, I am using the top 10 hitter from the 2006 Baseball America list and using data from 2005 and back. I use up to 3 years of data if available but less works, just a little more volatile. Stephen Drew was the most volatile player on this list but it was still very accurate. While there are deviations in each section, overall it does seem to point toward the players future success.
The age of debut seems poor at this point, often a year or more off but that is more related to opportunity and teams pushing their top talent.
|
Projected |
Actual |
|||||||||||||
|
2006 BA top 100 rank |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
SB |
BB |
K |
AGE OF DEBUT |
avg |
obp |
slg |
ops |
age |
|
|
1. Delmon Young |
0.276 |
0.325 |
0.480 |
0.805 |
7 |
43 |
135 |
21.64 |
0.284 |
0.317 |
0.425 |
0.742 |
20.349 |
|
|
2. Justin Upton |
0.277 |
0.349 |
0.469 |
0.818 |
0 |
66 |
111 |
20.21 |
0.278 |
0.357 |
0.475 |
0.832 |
19.342 |
|
|
3. Brandon Wood |
0.274 |
0.292 |
0.556 |
0.848 |
0 |
16 |
156 |
21.79 |
0.186 |
0.225 |
0.289 |
0.513 |
22.055 |
|
|
0.276 |
0.341 |
0.409 |
0.750 |
0 |
59 |
124 |
22.12 |
0.257 |
0.334 |
0.415 |
0.749 |
21.213 |
||
|
5. Stephen Drew |
0.266 |
0.345 |
0.414 |
0.758 |
9 |
72 |
111 |
22.84 |
0.265 |
0.328 |
0.433 |
0.762 |
23.121 |
|
|
0.270 |
0.340 |
0.426 |
0.766 |
0 |
64 |
117 |
22.42 |
0.269 |
0.328 |
0.395 |
0.723 |
21.055 |
||
|
11. Prince Fielder |
0.293 |
0.352 |
0.567 |
0.918 |
0 |
55 |
138 |
22.21 |
0.287 |
0.393 |
0.538 |
0.931 |
21.035 |
|
|
12. Howie Kendrick |
0.278 |
0.338 |
0.455 |
0.793 |
1 |
54 |
121 |
23.80 |
0.292 |
0.328 |
0.428 |
0.756 |
22.288 |
|
|
13. Alex Gordon |
0.272 |
0.344 |
0.455 |
0.798 |
2 |
66 |
112 |
23.58 |
0.269 |
0.348 |
0.439 |
0.787 |
23.051 |
|
|
14. Andy Marte |
0.294 |
0.351 |
0.533 |
0.883 |
0 |
53 |
132 |
21.42 |
0.218 |
0.277 |
0.358 |
0.635 |
21.229 |
Looking at the percent correlation to OPS, overall I'm happy with it. Delmon underachieved due to his ridiculous swinging habits. Brandon Wood was a colossal whiff but something about the 16 BB to 156 K ration should get your attention in my projection. It foretold the fact that Lastings Milledge was over rated and he even still under achieved. Even a predicted slugging of .567 wasn't enough for big Prince, as he has still outpaced my prediction. Andy Marte was a big ole whiff as well. I have no clue why. He was a hell of a prospect.
|
2006 BA top 100 rank |
% Error - OPS |
|
1. Delmon Young |
-8.50% |
|
2. Justin Upton |
1.69% |
|
3. Brandon Wood |
-65.39% |
|
4. Jeremy Hermida |
-0.09% |
|
5. Stephen Drew |
0.50% |
|
9. Lastings Milledge |
-5.99% |
|
11. Prince Fielder |
1.36% |
|
12. Howie Kendrick |
-4.90% |
|
13. Alex Gordon |
-1.42% |
|
14. Andy Marte |
-39.07% |
So, I think this is working. I will run the numbers on the top 100 hitting prospects for this year and email them out to anyone who has purchased my prospect percentages as soon as I'm done. It will probably be this weekend for all of the prospect draft happening. So if you want these for your draft, buy one here or click the right side bar at my site and let it guide you thru PayPal. Only $9.99.
