Here's Tuesday's edition of Saber-Links:
Kyle Boddy of THT writes about how Tommy Hanson's altered delivery could be hampering his performance: Tommy Hanson’s new delivery: where’s the velocity?
However, this is a perfect example that shows that rotation = velocity. Cutting down on rotation in hopes of solving another problem will come at a price. Can Hanson use these mechanics and diminished fastball velocity to return to form as a 3.20 - 3.80 xFIP kind of pitcher, a clear No. 2 in the rotation? Only time will tell. But while going from 93 to 90 might not be too bad, going from 90 to 88 could be a drastic difference to hitters, as fastball effectiveness does not diminish in a 1:1 ratio with lost velocity.
If you're a subscriber at BP you'll be able to who PECOTA hit on and missed on thus far this season: Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: PECOTA's First-Half Hits and Misses
Jack Moore of FG writes about the similarity between a possible Justin Upton trade and the trade that sent Gary Sheffield from the Padres, in 1993: Gary Sheffield’s 1993 Trade and Justin Upton | FanGraphs Baseball
What really speaks to the oddity of the situation is the extenuating circumstances around the Sheffield trade. Parting the mercurial outfielder’s outspokenness and legal issues could be justified. The Padres could point to Sheffield’s attitude and say, Look, he’ll never reach his potential here by acting like that. With Upton, there are no such signs outside of rumors about a degenerate shoulder condition.
If you haven't read my work or that of Colin Wyers over at BP than you probably didn't know there was a flaw in Brett Lawrie's DRS, thus far in 2012. I'm pleased to find that John Dewan and the boys over at BIS have fixed the system: Dewan explains at Bill James Online: Brett Lawrie—Best Defensive Third Baseman in Baseball? | Articles | Bill James Online
As recently as a week ago, we were reporting that Brett Lawrie had saved 30 runs with his defense in about a half-season thus far. Given that the best third baseman in our system has never registered even as many as 30 defensive runs saved in a full season since we started keeping this stat ten years ago, this number stood out like a sore thumb. How did it get so big? Simply put, Lawrie was making plays this year that no other third baseman has made with any consistency. Ever. But it was a flaw in our system that didn't recognize the defense the Blue Jays have employed on a regular basis for the first time in the history of baseball.
In true Tom Tango-form, Tango had a response to the newly-fangled DRS measurement, as he compares it to MGL's UZR numbers, for 2012: THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball: Fielding Systems
The correlation between the two metrics is a fairly high r=.80. Given that they are looking at the exact same data, we expect it to be fairly high. Obviously, each adds his own flavor. We do get a few cases like above that makes us wonder WHAT it is they are doing, when you see huge outliers like that.
Hope you enjoyed Tuesday's edition of Saber-Links!