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Saves Aren't Very Predictive 2011


R-squared shown for LOLs.

Digging around the "so obvious it hurts" saber-shelves today and figured you guys might like random shot at just how varied the spread on closer success has been in 2011. This data set is a scrape from Fangraphs and includes the top 35 relief pitchers with a save, and is set against their various corresponding FIP scores.

Huston Street is the obvious red flag with a higher FIP than all but four pitchers in this set. Craig Kimbrel is having a great year, and Papelbon has been effective despite not closing the deal on the "save." That said, if I'm Jonny Venters, I'm pissed for selfish reasons -- stuck setting up Kimbrell, his 2.13 FIP beats out Joel Hanrahan's 2.22 but has 20 less saves to show for it.