A few weeks ago, I looked at the league-wide leaders and trailers in batted ball FIP, which is an ERA estimator based only on strikeout, walk, and batted ball (ground balls, fly balls, line drives, pop ups) inputs. Today, I will revisit the topic with a different way of displaying the data. We can look at which components impact run scoring at what levels - for this, I will use linear weight runs. The league average is 0 and lower numbers are better for pitchers. Below are the values I'm using:
RV
K
-0.29
BB
0.32
GB
-0.10
FB
0.06
LD
0.37
PU
-0.25
Strikeouts and pop-ups are very good for pitchers, walks and line drives are very good for hitters, and grounders and flies are in between with the latter being better on average for hitters (because fly balls will sometimes turn into home runs). Those components can easily be broken down into an " not in play" set of values and an "in play" set.
The graph below shows the not-in-play runs above average per plate appearance plotted against in-play runs above average per ball in-play for pitchers with a minimum of 1,500 PA since 2008.
Rank | Player | NIP Runs |
1 | Tim Lincecum | -.029 |
2 | Dan Haren | -.028 |
3 | Ricky Nolasco | -.026 |
4 | Roy Halladay | -.025 |
5 | Cole Hamels | -.022 |
6 | Cliff Lee | -.022 |
7 | Josh Johnson | -.021 |
8 | Zack Greinke | -.019 |
9 | Javier Vazquez | -.018 |
10 | Josh Beckett | -.018 |
1x | Fausto Carmona | .024 |
2x | Jeff Suppan | .020 |
3x | Kyle Kendrick | .019 |
4x | Jason Marquis | .018 |
5x | Ian Snell | .018 |
6x | John Lannan | .016 |
7x | Scott Feldman | .016 |
8x | Trevor Cahill | .014 |
9x | Aaron Cook | .014 |
10x | Kyle Davies | .013 |
This next list focuses on the best and worst in batted ball profile.
Rank | Player | BIP Runs |
1 | Tim Hudson | -.030 |
2 | Fausto Carmona | -.023 |
3 | Hiroki Kuroda | -.021 |
4 | Justin Masterson | -.018 |
5 | Derek Lowe | -.014 |
6 | R.A. Dickey | -.014 |
7 | Ryan Dempster | -.013 |
8 | CC Sabathia | -.013 |
9 | Chris Carpenter | -.011 |
10 | Brett Myers | -.011 |
1x | Aaron Harang | .025 |
2x | Ian Snell | .021 |
3x | Kyle Kendrick | .016 |
4x | Kevin Correia | .016 |
5x | Kevin Millwood | .016 |
6x | Livan Hernandez | .014 |
7x | Kyle Lohse | .012 |
8x | Scott Kazmir | .012 |
9x | Scott Olsen | .011 |
10x | Jason Hammel | .011 |
Rank | Player | NIP-BIP |
1 | Dan Haren | -.035 |
2 | Aaron Harang | -.035 |
3 | Ricky Nolasco | -.035 |
4 | Tim Lincecum | -.033 |
5 | Justin Verlander | -.026 |
6 | Josh Beckett | -.026 |
7 | Yovani Gallardo | -.026 |
8 | Javier Vazquez | -.025 |
9 | Josh Johnson | -.023 |
10 | Max Scherzer | -.023 |
1 | Fausto Carmona | .047 |
2 | Tim Hudson | .033 |
3 | R.A. Dickey | .025 |
4 | Jason Marquis | .024 |
5 | Aaron Cook | .023 |
6 | Trevor Cahill | .023 |
7 | Justin Masterson | .022 |
8 | Chris Volstad | .017 |
9 | John Lannan | .017 |
10 | Mike Pelfrey | .017 |
To conclude this post, here are your three-year leaders and trailers in expected runs per plate appearance, which yields extremely similar results to bbFIP.
Rank | Player | xRV/PA |
1 | Roy Halladay | -.038 |
2 | Tim Lincecum | -.037 |
3 | CC Sabathia | -.035 |
4 | Hiroki Kuroda | -.034 |
5 | Cole Hamels | -.033 |
6 | Dan Haren | -.031 |
7 | Clayton Kershaw | -.030 |
8 | Adam Wainwright | -.030 |
9 | Felix Hernandez | -.029 |
10 | Roy Oswalt | -.029 |
1x | Kyle Kendrick | .026 |
2x | Ian Snell | .025 |
3x | Livan Hernandez | .018 |
4x | Jeff Suppan | .017 |
5x | Scott Feldman | .011 |
6x | Kevin Millwood | .010 |
7x | John Lannan | .009 |
8x | Kyle Davies | .009 |
9x | Kevin Correia | .009 |
10x | Scott Olsen | .008 |
For those who are interested, here is a Google spreadsheet with the data for all pitchers, aggregated from 2008 to 2010.
Data are from Baseball Prospectus. Run values are courtesy of Dan Brooks. Also, a thank you to Rich Lederer of The Baseball Analysts for getting me thinking about quadrants.