Recently, I wrote about upcoming Hall of Fame candidates who have reached the requirements for induction in the Hall of wWAR. Some have already retired (but are not yet eligible) while some are still active. In that post, I also included a poll that asked the readership which of the 38 players they believed should be in the Hall of Fame and which they believed would be inducted.
328 readers voted and they collectively said that 17 of those 38 players (only 45%) actually deserved induction.
| Name | Votes | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Johnson | 295 | 89.9% |
| Greg Maddux | 293 | 89.3% |
| Albert Pujols | 291 | 88.7% |
| Ken Griffey | 289 | 88.1% |
| Mariano Rivera | 284 | 86.6% |
| Pedro Martinez | 282 | 86.0% |
| Chipper Jones | 267 | 81.4% |
| Derek Jeter | 265 | 80.8% |
| Jim Thome | 265 | 80.8% |
| Frank Thomas | 262 | 79.9% |
| Barry Bonds | 262 | 79.9% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 260 | 79.3% |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 258 | 78.7% |
| Mike Piazza | 256 | 78.0% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 254 | 77.4% |
| Roger Clemens | 252 | 76.8% |
| Roy Halladay | 247 | 75.3% |
Complete voting (as well as the readers' predictions of who actually would get inducted) after the jump…
| Name | Votes | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Johnson | 295 | 89.9% |
| Greg Maddux | 293 | 89.3% |
| Albert Pujols | 291 | 88.7% |
| Ken Griffey | 289 | 88.1% |
| Mariano Rivera | 284 | 86.6% |
| Pedro Martinez | 282 | 86.0% |
| Chipper Jones | 267 | 81.4% |
| Derek Jeter | 265 | 80.8% |
| Jim Thome | 265 | 80.8% |
| Frank Thomas | 262 | 79.9% |
| Barry Bonds | 262 | 79.9% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 260 | 79.3% |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 258 | 78.7% |
| Mike Piazza | 256 | 78.0% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 254 | 77.4% |
| Roger Clemens | 252 | 76.8% |
| Roy Halladay | 247 | 75.3% |
| Tom Glavine | 245 | 74.7% |
| Craig Biggio | 240 | 73.2% |
| John Smoltz | 231 | 70.4% |
| Manny Ramirez | 215 | 65.5% |
| Curt Schilling | 176 | 53.7% |
| Mike Mussina | 172 | 52.4% |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 149 | 45.4% |
| Sammy Sosa | 147 | 44.8% |
| Jim Edmonds | 146 | 44.5% |
| Jeff Kent | 136 | 41.5% |
| Scott Rolen | 133 | 40.5% |
| Gary Sheffield | 132 | 40.2% |
| Todd Helton | 131 | 39.9% |
| Andruw Jones | 99 | 30.2% |
| Lance Berkman | 96 | 29.3% |
| Kenny Lofton | 95 | 29.0% |
| Jorge Posada | 81 | 24.7% |
| Joe Mauer | 77 | 23.5% |
| Carlos Beltran | 64 | 19.5% |
| Bobby Abreu | 53 | 16.2% |
| Jason Giambi | 33 | 10.1% |
Oh gosh, where to start? Every player received at least 10%, so everyone on this last has their supporters. I'll be honest—I was surprised to see that the readership didn't actually see Tom Glavine, Graig Biggio, and John Smoltz as Hall-worthy. I expected Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa to have trouble because of PEDs. I feel Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina definitely belong, but I'm also not surprised to see them struggle in a vote like this.
While Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Alex Rodriguez all took a hit because of their ties to PEDs, the readers still put them all between 75% and 80%, which would gain them induction. Do readers actually think they will be inducted? That's a different story we'll address in the next table.
The most surprising thing to me, however, was that nobody even received 90% of the vote. If Greg Maddux can't be inducted unanimously, nobody can.
| Name | Votes | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Johnson | 319 | 97.3% |
| Greg Maddux | 317 | 96.6% |
| Albert Pujols | 316 | 96.3% |
| Mariano Rivera | 316 | 96.3% |
| Derek Jeter | 309 | 94.2% |
| Ken Griffey | 307 | 93.6% |
| Pedro Martinez | 282 | 86.0% |
| Chipper Jones | 271 | 82.6% |
| Mike Piazza | 264 | 80.5% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 260 | 79.3% |
| Roy Halladay | 252 | 76.8% |
| Tom Glavine | 252 | 76.8% |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 242 | 73.8% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 238 | 72.6% |
| Jim Thome | 227 | 69.2% |
| Frank Thomas | 224 | 68.3% |
| Craig Biggio | 210 | 64.0% |
| John Smoltz | 209 | 63.7% |
| Curt Schilling | 179 | 54.6% |
| Barry Bonds | 142 | 43.3% |
| Roger Clemens | 136 | 41.5% |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 121 | 36.9% |
| Mike Mussina | 71 | 21.6% |
| Jorge Posada | 69 | 21.0% |
| Manny Ramirez | 68 | 20.7% |
| Joe Mauer | 65 | 19.8% |
| Todd Helton | 62 | 18.9% |
| Jeff Kent | 60 | 18.3% |
| Sammy Sosa | 53 | 16.2% |
| Gary Sheffield | 41 | 12.5% |
| Jim Edmonds | 34 | 10.4% |
| Lance Berkman | 30 | 9.1% |
| Scott Rolen | 22 | 6.7% |
| Andruw Jones | 19 | 5.8% |
| Kenny Lofton | 19 | 5.8% |
| Carlos Beltran | 15 | 4.6% |
| Jason Giambi | 6 | 1.8% |
| Bobby Abreu | 2 | 0.6% |
This table featured percentages much closer to 100%. I'm actually surprised that Randy Johnson rates ahead of Greg Maddux on both lists (although wWAR has them separated by just 0.9 wWAR). On this list, we actually see three players fall off the ballot because of lack of support—Carlos Beltran, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu. Andruw Jones and Kenny Lofton hang on by a thread.
On this list, Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod all fail to be inducted. Bonds and Clemens actually fall below 50% while A-Rod barely misses. Tom Glavine does pass 75% on this list while Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, and Ivan Rodriguez join Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod in falling below 75%.
In all there, are only 11 players who reach 75% on both lists: Johnson, Maddux, Albert Pujols, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Ken Griffey, Pedro Martinez, Chipper Jones, Mike Piazza, Ichiro Suzuki, and Roy Halladay.
Now, which players had the biggest discrepancy in their two percentages?
| Name | Should Be In | Will Be In | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Ramirez | 65.5% | 20.7% | 44.8% |
| Barry Bonds | 79.9% | 43.3% | 36.6% |
| Roger Clemens | 76.8% | 41.5% | 35.4% |
| Jim Edmonds | 44.5% | 10.4% | 34.1% |
| Scott Rolen | 40.5% | 6.7% | 33.8% |
| Mike Mussina | 52.4% | 21.6% | 30.8% |
| Sammy Sosa | 44.8% | 16.2% | 28.7% |
| Gary Sheffield | 40.2% | 12.5% | 27.7% |
| Andruw Jones | 30.2% | 5.8% | 24.4% |
| Jeff Kent | 41.5% | 18.3% | 23.2% |
| Kenny Lofton | 29.0% | 5.8% | 23.2% |
| Todd Helton | 39.9% | 18.9% | 21.0% |
| Lance Berkman | 29.3% | 9.1% | 20.1% |
| Bobby Abreu | 16.2% | 0.6% | 15.5% |
| Carlos Beltran | 19.5% | 4.6% | 14.9% |
| Jim Thome | 80.8% | 69.2% | 11.6% |
| Frank Thomas | 79.9% | 68.3% | 11.6% |
| Craig Biggio | 73.2% | 64.0% | 9.1% |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 45.4% | 36.9% | 8.5% |
| Jason Giambi | 10.1% | 1.8% | 8.2% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 79.3% | 72.6% | 6.7% |
| John Smoltz | 70.4% | 63.7% | 6.7% |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 78.7% | 73.8% | 4.9% |
| Jorge Posada | 24.7% | 21.0% | 3.7% |
| Joe Mauer | 23.5% | 19.8% | 3.7% |
| Pedro Martinez | 86.0% | 86.0% | 0.0% |
| Curt Schilling | 53.7% | 54.6% | -0.9% |
| Chipper Jones | 81.4% | 82.6% | -1.2% |
| Roy Halladay | 75.3% | 76.8% | -1.5% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 77.4% | 79.3% | -1.8% |
| Tom Glavine | 74.7% | 76.8% | -2.1% |
| Mike Piazza | 78.0% | 80.5% | -2.4% |
| Ken Griffey | 88.1% | 93.6% | -5.5% |
| Randy Johnson | 89.9% | 97.3% | -7.3% |
| Greg Maddux | 89.3% | 96.6% | -7.3% |
| Albert Pujols | 88.7% | 96.3% | -7.6% |
| Mariano Rivera | 86.6% | 96.3% | -9.8% |
| Derek Jeter | 80.8% | 94.2% | -13.4% |
Manny Ramirez tops the list, even ahead of Bonds and Clemens. Ramirez, however, fails to reach 75% on either list. I'm not surprised that those three are followed by Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Mike Mussina—three players greatly underrated by the traditional media. I expected to see Andruw Jones and Kenny Lofton rank a bit higher here, though. Perhaps they're just underrated by everyone.
Interestingly, we don't see the readers predicting that the BBWAA will overrate many players. A couple Yankees—Jeter and Rivera—top the list, but the percentage isn't very high. In general, readers expect the BBWAA to be way too stingy with their votes (as I do as well).
Thanks to everyone who voted!