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Upcoming Hall of Fame Candidates, by Weighted WAR

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Weighted WAR (wWAR) thinks Bobby Abreu is already a Hall of Famer. Do you?
Weighted WAR (wWAR) thinks Bobby Abreu is already a Hall of Famer. Do you?

Earlier in the week, I published the updated version of the Hall of wWAR, complete with a new, more indepth wWAR formula. After using the formula to re-populate the Hall of Fame, the next question I asked myself was "Who's Next?"

A total of 38 players who are not yet eligible for the Hall of wWAR have already reached the induction threshold. Twenty of them were still active in 2011. They range from the likes of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens all the way down to Lance Berkman, who used a strong 2011 (with a nice boost from his World Series WPA) to cross the Hall of wWAR induction line.

Here are the 38 players:

Name Pos WAR/162 WAE WAM wWPA wWAR/norm
Bonds, Barry lf 175.2 108.5 55.2 2.3 341.2
Clemens, Roger p 131.3 63.9 21.3 5.3 221.8
Rodriguez, Alex ss 104.7 57.9 22.7 3.9 189.2
Pujols, Albert 1b 89.0 56.0 23.8 5.4 174.2
Maddux, Greg p 101.1 43.1 9.8 1.5 155.4
Johnson, Randy p 92.5 44.6 14.2 3.2 154.5
Rivera, Mariano p 56.3 32.2 0.0 21.4 152.4
Rodriguez, Ivan c 69.7 34.0 10.8 1.2 135.7
Griffey, Ken cf 81.5 38.7 11.6 1.2 133.0
Piazza, Mike c 61.4 35.6 16.6 -0.6 132.5
Martinez, Pedro p 75.0 37.7 10.7 1.2 124.6
Jones, Chipper 3b 83.3 33.2 4.9 0.6 122.0
Thomas, Frank dh 79.0 30.5 5.8 0.1 115.4
Mussina, Mike p 77.3 27.5 2.1 2.6 109.5
Edmonds, Jim cf 69.2 31.4 6.9 1.1 108.6
Schilling, Curt p 68.3 27.5 2.5 6.1 104.4
Jeter, Derek ss 70.9 28.0 4.6 0.7 104.1
Thome, Jim 1b 73.2 25.9 3.2 0.1 102.3
Glavine, Tom p 73.1 21.5 2.5 4.3 101.4
Biggio, Craig 2b 68.9 25.3 5.0 -1.1 98.1
Rolen, Scott 3b 66.7 27.1 3.8 -0.5 97.1
Halladay, Roy p 60.6 29.5 6.1 0.6 96.8
Lofton, Kenny cf 68.8 23.8 3.1 0.0 95.6
Ramirez, Manny rf 68.1 22.2 2.2 2.7 95.2
Jones, Andruw cf 60.8 28.5 5.8 -0.7 94.4
Sosa, Sammy rf 61.7 25.2 5.9 1.2 94.0
Helton, Todd 1b 60.6 26.3 6.7 0.1 93.7
Mauer, Joe c 40.4 25.2 13.8 -0.1 93.0
Beltran, Carlos cf 60.9 26.0 4.2 1.9 93.0
Smoltz, John p 66.3 21.6 0.4 4.0 92.3
Sheffield, Gary rf 64.3 22.0 2.5 1.3 90.1
Giambi, Jason 1b 54.0 23.7 8.3 0.6 86.6
Guerrero, Vladimir rf 59.3 23.2 3.0 0.4 85.9
Posada, Jorge c 45.1 23.1 6.7 -2.4 85.1
Suzuki, Ichiro rf 54.0 24.4 3.7 0.3 82.4
Abreu, Bobby rf 59.4 21.3 1.3 0.3 82.3
Kent, Jeff 2b 60.9 17.1 2.5 0.0 80.5
Berkman, Lance lf 51.3 19.8 1.4 6.6 79.1

Yes, Mariano Rivera's ranking is pretty insane. It's that obscene 21.4 wWPA he has. The next highest wWPA in history is Babe Ruth at 9.0.

Perhaps breaking this down by position will help (listed by decending wWAR/norm):

  • C: Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada
  • 1B: Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi
  • 2B: Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent
  • 3B: Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen
  • SS: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter
  • LF: Barry Bonds, Lance Berkman
  • CF: Ken Griffey, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Andruw Jones
  • RF: Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki, Bobby Abreu
  • P: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz

Just out of curiosity, who's the next guy who doesn't make the cut at each position? If the next best isn't active, I'm showing the retired leader and the active leader (with wWAR/norm):

  • C: Nobody else with 40+ WAR
  • 1B: Miguel Cabrera 61.4
  • 2B: Chase Utley 66.8
  • 3B: Adrian Beltre 68.0
  • SS: Nomar Garciaparra 69.8 (Active: Miguel Tejada 55.8)
  • LF: Luis Gonzalez 62.9 (Active: none with 40+ WAR)
  • CF: Bernie Williams 68.7 (Active: Johnny Damon 64.5)
  • RF: J.D. Drew 60.6
  • P: Johan Santana 71.4
    • Just for curiosity, the next pitchers are CC Sabathia 71.3, Tim Hudson 68.8, Andy Pettitte 67.4, and David Wells 63.5.

I built this pool of players by grabbing all players with 40+ WAR. That's why I ran out of catchers and left fielders. After Luis Gonzalez, the next left fielder on the WAR list is Moises Alou (38.3). Matt Holliday follows him at 31.3. Keep in mind that these are WAR totals and not wWAR. The next catcher by plain old WAR is Jason Kendall at 38.1 (followed by Victor Martinez at 28.1).

My question to you: Of those 38 players who already meet the Hall of wWAR threshold, which ones do you actually see getting in the Hall of Fame? Many of them will suffer from steroid scrutiny, whether they deserve it or not. Others will be dismissed as jerks. Others have simply been tragically underrated.

What do you think? Who really belongs and who will actually make it?

Voting is now closed. The results will be posted next week. Thanks for voting!