clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Postseason Projections: Phils' Exit Makes Texas Big Favorites

New, comments
Progressive1008_medium

What a way to follow up the craziest regular season finish in history but with the wildest LDS in a generation.

Three of the four series went five games--something that hasn't happened since 1981--and all three games were decided by a single run. The St. Louis Cardinals upset the Philadelphia Phillies thanks to masterful pitching by Chris Carpenter, and the Milwaukee Brewers are heading back to the LCS for the first time in nearly three decades thanks to Nyjer "T-Plush" Morgan's extra-innings walk-off against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The early departure of the Phillies and Yankees is welcomed by the Texas Rangers, who host the Detroit Tigers tonight in the first game of the ALCS. We have the Rangers as heavy 3:5 favorites to take their second consecutive pennant and 9:7 to win their first World Series. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

Projection1008_medium

Figures of Note:

  • Philadelphia's 19.1% drop in WS% is the most dramatic so far.
  • The Brewers' win over the Diamondbacks in Game 5 is good for a 11.2 WS% increase.
  • It should be no surprise that all four teams are enjoying their best odds yet to take home a ring.
  • For the third day in a row, the Rangers profited from the activities of other teams. Their WS% increased by 2.8 as a result of the Cardinals' NLDS victory.
  • While the Rangers' advantage is big, let's not forget that the Tigers are 5:3 to win their second pennant in six seasons
  • Leyland's boys from Detroit are also a respectable 4:1 to win the World Series for the first time since their 1984 triumph.
  • There is a 16.2% chance that the Tigers will face the Cardinals in a rematch of the 2006 World Series.
  • The odds are 6:1 that the Cardinals win their second title in six seasons.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/8/11









Inputs
Outputs
Team Seed Talent
LDS% LCS% WS%
WS HFA









NYY 1 0.615
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
TEX 2 0.640
100.0% 62.8% 43.7%
-1.3%
DET 3 0.589
100.0% 37.2% 21.9%
-0.9%
TBR WC 0.592
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%









PHI 1 0.605
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
MIL 2 0.554
100.0% 56.5% 20.6%
1.3%
ARI 3 0.519
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
STL WC 0.530
100.0% 43.5% 13.8%
0.9%














AL 65.6%
-2.2%





NL 34.4%
2.2%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.