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Projections Update: Yankees Go Home


You can't predict baseball, Suzyn, but so help me I've tried. The system suffered its first defeat last night along with the favored New York Yankees. The Detroit Tigers, decided underdogs, will now head to Texas to fight for the American League pennant. We have the Rangers as 3:5 favorites in that series.

As for tonight's games, we continue to favor the Phillies and Brewers over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks in Senior Circuit Battle Royale 2011. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note

  • For the second day in a row, Texas managed to improve their odds despite not taking the field. The Yankees' departure added 3% to the Rangers' World Series victory probability.
  • Home field advantage, which the Rangers would not have enjoyed against the Yankees, explains some of that bump (~1-2%).
  • The Tigers are now, unsurprisingly, at the high water mark for their postseason. Despite the Texas-sized advantage we project in favor of the higher seed, Detroit is now a healthy 4:1 shot to win it all.
  • The Rangers clock in at 4:3.
  • The 15.4 WS% that the Yankees coughed up last night is the steepest decline of any team this October, so far.
  • The probability of both top seeds advancing to the NLDS is now 35.4%.
  • The probability of an underdog sweep in the remaining games is 16.4%.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/7/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TEX 2 0.640 100.0% 62.8% 40.9% -1.5%
DET 3 0.589 100.0% 37.2% 20.1% -0.9%
TBR WC 0.592 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PHI 1 0.605 61.5% 40.2% 19.1% 1.1%
MIL 2 0.554 57.5% 25.8% 9.4% 0.6%
ARI 3 0.519 42.5% 16.0% 4.7% 0.3%
STL WC 0.530 38.5% 18.0% 5.7% 0.4%
AL 61.0% -2.4%
NL 39.0% 2.4%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.