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Projections Update: Bid Farewell to Tampa Bay

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Considering the mismatches I first projected in the National League, I would not have expected Tampa Bay to be the first team eliminated in the 2011 postseason. Once a 15% shot to win it all, the Rays will have to wait for another year. In disposing of the Rays, the Texas Rangers rise to an even more dominant position with the victorious Phillies in tow. A.J. Burnett's competent performance put the Yankees back into the discussion as they head back to New York for Game 5, while the Cardinals and Diamondbacks still find themselves on the brink.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • Now one game from advancing, Philadelphia's win over St. Louis brought them nearly back to their high water mark—3:1 to win it all—for the postseason.
  • With both teams playing an elimination game in New York, either the Yanks or Tigers will set a new postseason high with a win.
  • As it stands right now, the Yanks are a 6:1 bet for the Commissioner's Trophy, the Tigers 11:1.
  • In terms of World Series victory probability, losing to the Yankees cost Detroit 7.1%.
  • The Brewers' loss to Arizona cost Milwaukee 3.6% and credits the Diamondbacks a paltry 0.8%.
  • On the brink of elimination, the Diamondbacks and Cardinals are now a distant 47:1 and 39:1, respectively, to win it all.

Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/5/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 56.7% 25.8% 14.7% -0.6%
TEX 2 0.640 100.0% 58.1% 36.5% -1.5%
DET 3 0.589 43.3% 16.1% 8.3% -0.3%
TBR WC 0.592 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PHI 1 0.605 82.1% 52.5% 24.5% 1.5%
MIL 2 0.554 78.5% 32.1% 11.4% 0.7%
ARI 3 0.519 21.5% 7.3% 2.1% 0.1%
STL WC 0.530 17.9% 8.1% 2.5% 0.1%
AL 59.5% -2.5%
NL 40.5% 2.5%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.