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Projections Update: Texas, Detroit Win Big


With wins over the Yankees and Rays, the Tigers and Rangers made significant gains on Monday night in their quest for the Commissioner's Trophy. With some help from Detroit, Texas increased their WS% by 10.3—the biggest gain so far of the postseason. Detroit boosted their chances by a respectable 4.3%. The Yankees and Rays, now on the brink of elimination, lost 7.7% and 6%, respectively.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note:

  • The once-mighty Yankees now rely on an A.J. Burnett victory in an elimination game to make good on their 12:1 shot to win the World Series.
  • Detroit's victory over New York pushed their World Series odds to 11:2, obviously their best since the playoffs began.
  • Also facing elimination, the Rays are on the outside looking it at 18:1 to win it all.
  • At 11:5, the Rangers now have a better chance to win the World Series than the Rays do the ALDS.
  • Same goes for the Yankees.
  • While the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals and Diamondbacks were all off last night, their WS odds moved a bit due to the effect of AL games on the probabilities of facing certain opponents in the World Series.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/4/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 27.6% 13.2% 7.8% -0.3%
TEX 2 0.640 79.9% 48.4% 31.3% -0.8%
DET 3 0.589 72.4% 28.9% 15.4% -0.6%
TBR WC 0.592 20.1% 9.6% 5.2% -0.2%
PHI 1 0.605 59.3% 37.5% 18.1% 1.0%
MIL 2 0.554 89.2% 40.3% 15.0% 0.9%
ARI 3 0.519 10.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.1%
STL WC 0.530 40.7% 18.0% 5.8% -0.1%
AL 59.7% -1.9%
NL 40.3% 1.9%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.