clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Projections Update: Rangers Reclaim Lead


The Rangers benefited from their day off as the Tigers and Cardinals upset the Yankees and Phillies, respectively. This leaves Texas in the top spot, trailed closely by Philadelphia. The Yanks and Brewers now find themselves in a dead heat as the Diamondbacks, now on the brink of elimination, have a big hill to climb.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note:

  • At 1:9 and sporting a 2-0 lead, the Brewers are easily the most favored to exit from the round of eight and reach their first ever NLCS (and their first LCS since 1982).
  • On the other end of the spectrum we see the Diamondbacks as a distant 75:1 shot to win it all.
  • The Diamondbacks are less likely to advance to the next round than six of the other seven teams are to win the World Series.
  • The Phillies and Yankees are at their low point of the postseason: along with the Diamondbacks, they're the three teams whose chances of winning it all are less than when they started.
  • On the flip side, the Rangers, Brewers and Cardinals have reached their high water marks.

Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/3/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 52.0% 26.2% 15.5% -0.6%
TEX 2 0.640 55.6% 32.5% 21.0% -0.6%
DET 3 0.589 48.0% 20.7% 11.1% -0.4%
TBR WC 0.592 44.4% 20.6% 11.2% -0.5%
PHI 1 0.605 59.3% 37.5% 18.5% 1.0%
MIL 2 0.554 89.2% 40.3% 15.4% 0.9%
ARI 3 0.519 10.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.1%
STL WC 0.530 40.7% 18.0% 6.0% 0.0%
AL 58.8% -2.0%
NL 41.2% 2.0%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.