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Projections Update: Rangers on History's Doorstep

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Thanks to Mike Napoli--again--timely defense and some interesting decisions by Tony La Russa, the Texas Rangers find themselves one game away from their first world championship. They'll have to beat the Cardinals in St. Louis, but our model indicates that they won't have that much trouble doing so.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. And that's pretty much all I have to say about that.

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Probability of World Series Victory
10/25/2011
Texas St. Louis
Overall 81.8% Overall 18.2%
in 6 57.3% in 7 18.2%
in 7 24.5%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.