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Projections Update: Rangers Regain Edge


Last night, Mike Napoli and Derek Holland helped the Rangers tie up the World Series and retake the lead in our projections. The Fall Classic will now run six games for only the second time in eight years, and the underdog Cardinals (2:1) will have a shot to win it all at home.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note:

  • The most likely outcome is, once again, a Texas victory in six games.
  • The Rangers are more likely to win it in six than St. Louis is to win it in six or seven games.
Probability of World Series Victory
Texas St. Louis
Overall 64.6% Overall 35.4%
in 6 37.2% in 6 15.0%
in 7 27.4% in 7 20.4%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.