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Projections Update: Cardinals Favored for First Time in 2011

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Thanks to an historic performance by Albert Pujols, an errant call at first base, and generally mediocre pitching, the St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win the World Series for the first time this postseason--barely. Our model has both teams in a dead heat at 1:1, with the Rangers trailing the Cardinals by a mere 1.2%.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note

  • By "stealing" one in Arlington, the Cardinals have eliminated the model's initial projection--Rangers in five--as a possibility.
  • Despite the model favoring the Cardinals, the most likely individual outcome is Rangers in seven.
  • While the Cardinals are at their high water mark, the Rangers are at their lowest point since before the ALCS.
  • The most likely winning outcome for the Cardinals is a Game 6 victory.
Probability of World Series Victory
10/23/2011
Texas St. Louis
Overall 49.4% Overall 50.6%
in 6 24.2% in 5 12.3%
in 7 25.3% in 6 19.4%
in 7 18.8%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.