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Projections Update: It's a Brand New Series

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The Rangers and Cardinals head to Arlington tied at one game apiece, and it's a brand new series in more ways than one. In terms of their title chances, both Texas (2:5) and St. Louis (5:2) are right back where they started.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • The most likely outcome is once again Texas in five games.
  • St. Louis' game one victory earned them a 15.6 point bump in WS%.
  • Texas' game two victory earned them a 14.7% bump.
  • So, in a way, St. Louis is still up on the whole deal.
  • It's nearly twice as likely that Texas will win out than St. Louis will win it in seven.
Probability of World Series Victory
10/21/2011
Texas St. Louis
Overall 71.5% Overall 28.5%
in 5 27.4% in 5 4.3%
in 6 25.4% in 6 10.2%
in 7 18.7% in 7 13.9%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.