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Projections Update: Favorites Pull Ahead


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Last night was a great night for chalk; the top seed was victorious in each match-up. In the case of the Rangers and Rays, this meant they ended up right back where they started (almost). In the case of everyone else, it meant significant gains or losses. As a result, the Phillies extended their lead and the Yankees kept up. The Rangers aren't riding high in the saddle like they were a few days ago, but they're hot on New York's tail.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note:

  • After yesterday's games, we're just short of 4:1 in seeing a rematch of the 2009 World Series.
  • Following their loss to the Brewers, the Diamondbacks are now a distant 35:1 bet to win it all.
  • In the same boat are the St. Louis Cardinals at 31:1.
  • With a 1.9% increase in WS% since the start of the LDS, the Brewers have benefited the least from their victory. Still, an 8:1 shot at winning it all is nothing to sneeze at.
  • Now with a 27.2% chance to win the ALDS, Jim Leyland & Co. appear to have lost the battle of the rain-out (not to mention last night's battle against the Yankees).

Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/2/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 72.8% 36.6% 21.1% -0.9%
TEX 2 0.640 55.6% 31.6% 19.9% -0.7%
DET 3 0.589 27.2% 11.8% 6.1% -0.2%
TBR WC 0.592 44.4% 20.1% 10.6% -0.5%
PHI 1 0.605 79.2% 50.9% 24.9% 1.4%
MIL 2 0.554 73.9% 30.6% 11.6% 0.7%
ARI 3 0.519 26.1% 9.0% 2.8% 0.2%
STL WC 0.530 20.8% 9.4% 3.1% 0.0%
AL 57.7% -2.3%
NL 42.3% 2.3%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.