Recently, I've published Win Probability Added (WPA) Leaderboards for the World Series and for the entire postseason. There's just one modification I wanted to make to the postseason leaderboard.
If there's one thing that sabermetrics has taught me, it's that weighting things is fun. This has been especially true while working on the Hall of wWAR. One of my main goals for the revision of the Hall of wWAR was to include postseason value. WPA essentially gives me this.
However, not all postseason series are created equally. So today, I give you wWPA (Weighted Postseason Win Probability Added).
The all time leaders:
Click to enlarge
Read on for the Top 111 (all players with 2.5 or more wWPA) and the methodology…
| Rk | Player | totWPA | LDSWPA | LCSWPA | WSWPA | wWPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | 11.62 | 4.24 | 5.02 | 2.36 | 21.36 |
| 2 | Babe Ruth | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| 3 | Art Nehf | 2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.51 | 7.53 |
| 4 | Christy Mathewson | 2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.41 | 7.23 |
| 5 | Lou Gehrig | 2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.33 | 6.99 |
| 6 | Rollie Fingers | 2.35 | -0.14 | 0.49 | 2.00 | 6.84 |
| 7 | Herb Pennock | 2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.12 | 6.36 |
| 8 | Allie Reynolds | 2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.05 | 6.15 |
| 9 | Curt Schilling | 3.57 | 1.97 | 0.69 | 0.91 | 6.08 |
| 10 | Pete Rose | 2.59 | 0.08 | 1.84 | 0.67 | 5.77 |
| 11 | Charlie Keller | 1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.88 | 5.64 |
| 12 | Mike Stanton | 2.30 | 0.57 | 0.14 | 1.59 | 5.62 |
| 13 | Home Run Baker | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 5.40 |
| 14 | Orel Hershiser | 2.81 | 0.43 | 2.23 | 0.15 | 5.34 |
| 15 | Andy Pettitte | 3.06 | 1.33 | 1.23 | 0.50 | 5.29 |
| 16 | Red Ruffing | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.76 | 5.28 |
| 17 | Roger Clemens | 2.18 | 0.15 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 5.27 |
| 18 | Bill Hallahan | 1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.55 | 4.65 |
| 19 | Mickey Mantle | 1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 | 4.56 |
| 20 | Chief Bender | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.47 | 4.41 |
| 21 | Dave Henderson | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.99 | 0.80 | 4.38 |
| 22 | Tom Glavine | 1.90 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 1.06 | 4.33 |
| 23 | Kirk Gibson | 1.56 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1.17 | 4.29 |
| 24 | Jim Palmer | 1.76 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 0.67 | 4.19 |
| 25 | Hideki Matsui | 1.41 | -0.18 | 0.41 | 1.18 | 4.18 |
| 26 | Alex Rodriguez | 2.30 | 0.80 | 1.15 | 0.35 | 4.15 |
| 27 | Orlando Hernandez | 2.41 | 1.08 | 0.97 | 0.36 | 4.10 |
| 28 | Albert Pujols | 2.28 | 0.69 | 1.43 | 0.16 | 4.03 |
| 29 | John Smoltz | 3.11 | 2.41 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 4.03 |
| 30 | Lenny Dykstra | 1.73 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 0.57 | 4.03 |
| 31 | Monte Pearson | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.34 | 4.02 |
| 32 | Carl Hubbell | 1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.32 | 3.96 |
| 33 | Willie Aikens | 1.48 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 1.18 | 3.94 |
| 34 | Dave Stewart | 1.42 | -0.70 | 2.48 | -0.36 | 3.90 |
| 35 | Dave McNally | 1.54 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.81 | 3.89 |
| 36 | Duffy Lewis | 1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 | 3.87 |
| 37 | Reggie Jackson | 1.19 | 0.09 | -0.22 | 1.32 | 3.83 |
| 38 | Bob Gibson | 1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 3.81 |
| 39 | Waite Hoyt | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 3.72 |
| 40 | Johnny Bench | 1.56 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 3.68 |
| 41 | Jonathan Papelbon | 1.65 | 0.19 | 0.90 | 0.56 | 3.67 |
| 42 | Jack Morris | 0.78 | 0.00 | -0.66 | 1.44 | 3.66 |
| 43 | Jimmie Foxx | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 3.66 |
| 44 | Tris Speaker | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| 45 | Tug McGraw | 1.44 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 3.58 |
| 46 | Josh Beckett | 1.42 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 1.01 | 3.57 |
| 47 | Paul Molitor | 1.49 | 0.15 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 3.55 |
| 48 | Sandy Koufax | 1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 | 3.54 |
| 49 | Cliff Lee | 2.24 | 1.26 | 0.68 | 0.30 | 3.52 |
| 50 | Johnny Evers | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 3.48 |
| 51 | Vic Raschi | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 3.48 |
| 52 | Thurman Munson | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.52 | 3.46 |
| 53 | Marius Russo | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 3.45 |
| 54 | David Ortiz | 1.93 | 0.74 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 3.42 |
| 55 | Johnny Podres | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.14 | 3.42 |
| 56 | Eddie Plank | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 3.39 |
| 57 | Carl Mays | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.12 | 3.36 |
| 58 | Will McEnaney | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.04 | 3.36 |
| 59 | Duke Snider | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 3.33 |
| 60 | Lefty Grove | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 3.33 |
| 61 | Bill Dinneen | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 | 3.30 |
| 62 | Harry Brecheen | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 | 3.30 |
| 63 | Tim McCarver | 0.94 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 1.18 | 3.30 |
| 64 | Sherry Smith | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 3.24 |
| 65 | Gil Hodges | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 3.21 |
| 66 | Harry Hooper | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 3.21 |
| 67 | Brad Lidge | 1.94 | 1.03 | 1.25 | -0.34 | 3.19 |
| 68 | Jack Coombs | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 3.18 |
| 69 | Randy Johnson | 0.92 | -0.69 | 0.96 | 0.65 | 3.18 |
| 70 | Fernando Valenzuela | 1.89 | 0.78 | 0.96 | 0.15 | 3.15 |
| 71 | Randy Myers | 1.72 | 0.36 | 1.32 | 0.04 | 3.12 |
| 72 | George Brett | 1.38 | -0.20 | 1.73 | -0.15 | 3.11 |
| 73 | Hugh Bedient | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 3.06 |
| 74 | Lance Berkman | 1.33 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.66 | 3.03 |
| 75 | Rube Foster | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 3.03 |
| 76 | Billy Hatcher | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 3.02 |
| 77 | Pepper Martin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| 78 | Hugh McQuillan | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 | 2.97 |
| 79 | Mickey Lolich | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.73 | 2.95 |
| 80 | Duane Ward | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 2.94 |
| 81 | Tommy Bridges | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 | 2.94 |
| 82 | John Wetteland | 1.42 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 0.62 | 2.92 |
| 83 | Buck Herzog | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 2.85 |
| 84 | Eddie Lopat | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 2.85 |
| 85 | Frank Schulte | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 2.82 |
| 86 | Orval Overall | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 2.82 |
| 87 | Bernie Williams | 0.87 | -0.19 | 1.91 | -0.85 | 2.78 |
| 88 | Burleigh Grimes | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 2.73 |
| 89 | Carl Willis | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 2.71 |
| 90 | Chuck Knoblauch | 0.86 | -0.20 | 0.27 | 0.79 | 2.71 |
| 91 | Hank Aaron | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 2.71 |
| 92 | Gene Bearden | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 2.70 |
| 93 | Jack Billingham | 0.76 | 0.00 | -0.21 | 0.97 | 2.70 |
| 94 | Ken Holtzman | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 2.67 |
| 95 | Manny Ramirez | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.58 | 0.17 | 2.67 |
| 96 | Sam Crawford | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 | 2.67 |
| 97 | Mike Mussina | 1.63 | 0.66 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 2.64 |
| 98 | Stan Coveleski | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 2.64 |
| 99 | Gary Carter | 1.52 | 0.52 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 2.62 |
| 100 | Kirby Puckett | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 2.61 |
| 101 | Steve Garvey | 1.04 | 0.22 | 1.57 | -0.75 | 2.61 |
| 102 | Hippo Vaughn | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 2.61 |
| 103 | Paul Dean | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 2.61 |
| 104 | Duster Mails | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 2.58 |
| 105 | George Earnshaw | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 2.58 |
| 106 | Amos Otis | 0.68 | -0.46 | 0.39 | 0.75 | 2.57 |
| 107 | Bruce Hurst | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 2.57 |
| 108 | Danny Murphy | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 2.55 |
| 109 | Spec Shea | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 2.55 |
| 110 | Yogi Berra | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 2.55 |
| 111 | Shoeless Joe Jackson | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 2.52 |
Because I was wondering who ranks as the worst, I'm sure you were too. Here are the bottom ten:
| Player | totWPA | LDSWPA | LCSWPA | WSWPA | wWPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Mueller | -1.74 | -1.28 | -0.56 | 0.10 | -1.54 |
| Ron Gant | -1.55 | 0.33 | -0.89 | -0.99 | -1.55 |
| Mitch Williams | -1.61 | 0.00 | -0.33 | -1.28 | -1.61 |
| Joe Girardi | -1.66 | -0.92 | -0.52 | -0.22 | -1.66 |
| Doyle Alexander | -1.72 | 0.00 | -1.55 | -0.17 | -1.72 |
| Ed Summers | -1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.75 | -1.75 |
| Graig Nettles | -1.75 | -0.41 | -0.56 | -0.78 | -1.75 |
| Jeff Blauser | -1.87 | -0.05 | -1.20 | -0.62 | -1.87 |
| Jorge Posada | -2.62 | -1.53 | -0.31 | -0.78 | -2.62 |
| Reggie Sanders | -2.74 | 0.16 | -2.39 | -0.51 | -2.74 |
Similar to how wWAR double- and triple-counts WAR above a certain threshold, wWPA double-counts LCS WPA and triple-counts World Series WPA. Also similar to wWAR, I don't apply these double- and triple-counts to negative values. So, technically the formula ends up being Total WPA + LCSWPA + (WSWPA*2), but I only add the LCS and WS WPA if it is greater than zero. This also explains why the negative values are much smaller than the positive values. The reasoning behind this (feel free to disagree) is that a positive postseason contribution can help a player's Hall of Fame case much more than a negative postseason contribution can hurt it.