Note: the original chart reversed the distribution of game outcomes for St. Louis. The error has been rectified. I thank our vigilant readers for catching this and apologize for any confusion.
Defying all odds, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in the World Series, ready to take on the heavy favorites: the Texas Rangers.
Point of fact: I did not expect the Cardinals to be here, not in August, not in September, not last week. My simulator didn't think any more highly of them. Yet, here we are. Our projections have the Rangers as 2:5 favorites, with the most likely outcome being a Texas win in five games.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- As of right now, all four St. Louis winning outcomes are less likely than all four Texas winning outcomes.
- That means we expect a Texas sweep before we expect a Cardinals win in seven games.
- The Cardinals' victory over the Brewers boosted Texas' chances by 1.5%.
- For the first time since 2005, both World Series representatives hail from the Central Time Zone.
| Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 10/17/11 | ||||||
| Inputs |
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Outputs | |||||
| Team | Seed | Talent |
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LCS% | WS% |
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WS HFA |
| TEX | 2 | 0.640 | 100.0% | 72.2% | -2.0% | ||
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| STL | WC | 0.530 | 100.0% | 27.8% | 2.0% | ||
| AL | 72.2% | -2.0% | |||||
| NL | 27.8% | 2.0% | |||||
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.