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Projections Update: Texas Dominant After Second AL Triumph

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The Rangers punched their ticket to the 2011 Fall Classic last night with a 15-5 win, dominating the Tigers in much the same way they've dominated our postseason projections. They're now 70.7% favorites to win the World Series. Meanwhile the favored Cardinals attempt to fend off the hometown Brewers tonight for the National League crown.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • Having vanquished Detroit, Texas is a 2:5 favorite to win the World Series.
  • Yes, that number's rather high, and Vegas probably disagrees, but so far the Rangers have confirmed their playoff hegemony.
  • Texas' victory cost St. Louis 1.2 WS% points.
  • It cost the Brewers 0.6 WS% points.
  • Chances that the Cardinals win the NLCS in six games: 43.6%
  • Chances that the Cardinals win the NLCS in seven games: 24.6%
  • Chances that the Brewers win the NLCS in seven games: 31.8%
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/16/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 100.0% 70.7% -2.1%
DET 3 0.589 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MIL 2 0.554 31.8% 10.3% 0.7%
STL WC 0.530 68.2% 19.0% 1.4%
AL 70.7% -2.1%
NL 29.3% 2.1%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.