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Projections Update: Cardinals One Game Away

Progressive1015_medium


The St. Louis Cardinals, laughably out of contention in August, are on the verge of being the sole National League representatives in October. With one win against the Brewers in Milwaukee--a 68.2% possibility--the Cardinals will return to the World Series for the third time in eight seasons.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • The Cardinals are the NL favorites for the second time this postseason. At 4:1 to win the World Series, their chances are the most favorable yet.
  • The Brewers, on the other hand, must win two at home to advance, a feat to which we ascribe slim 2:1 odds.
  • The Brew Crew are only 9:1 to win it all.
  • NLCS elimination scenarios: Cardinals in 6 (43.6 %); Brewers in 7 (31.8%); Cardinals in 7 (24.6%)
  • ALCS elimination scenarios: Rangers in 6 (59.3%); Rangers in 7 (24.1%); Tigers in 7 (16.6%)
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/15/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 83.4% 59.0% -1.8%
DET 3 0.589 16.6% 9.9% -0.4%
MIL 2 0.554 31.8% 10.9% 0.7%
STL WC 0.530 68.2% 20.2% 1.4%
AL 69.0% -2.1%
NL 31.0% 2.1%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.