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Projections Update: Brewers, Tigers Stay In Race

Progressive1014_medium

The Tigers and Brewers needed wins last night to force a sixth game. They got them. For the Brewers, this means they have a 55.6% chance to win it in front of the hometown crowd. The Tigers, on the other hand, need to win two games in hostile territory, a 16.6% feat according to our system.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

Projection1014_medium

Figures of Note:

  • Despite the loss, the Rangers are still 1:5 to win the AL and 5:7 to win it all.
  • The Cardinals aren't in such good shape, now at 5:4 to win the NL and 15:2 to win the World Series.
  • The odds of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 46.4%
  • The odds of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 37%
  • The odds of a Detroit-Milwaukee World Series: 9.2%
  • The odds of a Detroit-St. Louis World Series: 7.4%
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/14/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 83.4% 58.1% -1.8%
DET 3 0.589 16.6% 9.7% -0.4%
MIL 2 0.554 55.6% 19.0% 1.3%
STL WC 0.530 44.4% 13.1% 0.9%
AL 67.9% -2.2%
NL 32.1% 2.2%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.