The Tigers and Brewers needed wins last night to force a sixth game. They got them. For the Brewers, this means they have a 55.6% chance to win it in front of the hometown crowd. The Tigers, on the other hand, need to win two games in hostile territory, a 16.6% feat according to our system.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- Despite the loss, the Rangers are still 1:5 to win the AL and 5:7 to win it all.
- The Cardinals aren't in such good shape, now at 5:4 to win the NL and 15:2 to win the World Series.
- The odds of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 46.4%
- The odds of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 37%
- The odds of a Detroit-Milwaukee World Series: 9.2%
- The odds of a Detroit-St. Louis World Series: 7.4%
Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 10/14/11 | ||||||
Inputs | Outputs | ||||||
Team | Seed | Talent | LCS% | WS% | WS HFA | ||
TEX | 2 | 0.640 | 83.4% | 58.1% | -1.8% | ||
DET | 3 | 0.589 | 16.6% | 9.7% | -0.4% | ||
MIL | 2 | 0.554 | 55.6% | 19.0% | 1.3% | ||
STL | WC | 0.530 | 44.4% | 13.1% | 0.9% | ||
AL | 67.9% | -2.2% | |||||
NL | 32.1% | 2.2% |
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.