The Tigers won their first game in the 2011 American League Championship series and, in so doing, dealt the Rangers their first loss in a week and a half. With this win, Detroit improves their World Series chances to 6:1.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note
- Detroit is now 3:1 to win the pennant.
- Texas is still sitting as pretty as a yellow rose, at 1:3 to win the ALCS and 7:8 to win it all.
- Both the Brewers' and Cardinals' chances improved by 0.5% with Texas' loss.
- Chance of a 2006 World Series rematch: 11.1%.
- Chance of a Great Lakes Series: 12.5%.
- Chance of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 40.5%.
- Chance of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 35.9%.
- The American League is better than 1:2 to defeat the National League in the World Series.
|Probability of Postseason Series Victory||10/12/11|
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.