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Projections Update: Tigers Halt Rangers' March


The Tigers won their first game in the 2011 American League Championship series and, in so doing, dealt the Rangers their first loss in a week and a half. With this win, Detroit improves their World Series chances to 6:1.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note

  • Detroit is now 3:1 to win the pennant.
  • Texas is still sitting as pretty as a yellow rose, at 1:3 to win the ALCS and 7:8 to win it all.
  • Both the Brewers' and Cardinals' chances improved by 0.5% with Texas' loss.
  • Chance of a 2006 World Series rematch: 11.1%.
  • Chance of a Great Lakes Series: 12.5%.
  • Chance of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 40.5%.
  • Chance of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 35.9%.
  • The American League is better than 1:2 to defeat the National League in the World Series.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/12/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 76.4% 53.3% -1.6%
DET 3 0.589 23.6% 13.9% -0.6%
MIL 2 0.554 53.0% 18.5% 1.2%
STL WC 0.530 47.0% 14.2% 1.0%
AL 67.2% -2.2%
NL 32.8% 2.2%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.