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Projections Update: Can Anyone Stop the Rangers?

Progressive1011_medium


Sure, the slate is clean once the World Series begins, but by the looks of things one may wonder if anyone's in a position to compete with the 2011 Texas Rangers. Texas hasn't lost since Game 1 of the ALDS, and they've lost ground in WS% only once more: when the Brewers won during the Rangers' ALCS rain-out.

Texas is now 1:6 to win their second consecutive pennant and 2:3 to win their first World Series. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • By neutralizing Milwaukee last night, the Cardinals pulled near-even to win the NLCS and elevated their chances to win it all to 6:1.
  • The Brewers are now looking at 4:1 to win it all.
  • At 23:2 to win the World Series, the Tigers are in the worst position since their Game 1 loss in the ALDS.
  • There is a 45.8% chance of a Rangers-Brewers World Series.
  • There is a 40.7% chance of a Rangers-Cardinals World Series.
  • There is a 7.2% chance of a Great Lakes Series between the Tigers and Brewers.
  • There is a 6.3% chance of a rematch of the 2006 World Series between the Tigers and Cardinals.
  • There is an 86.5% chance that both World Series teams will represent the Central Time Zone for the first time since 2005.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/11/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 86.5% 60.4% -1.8%
DET 3 0.589 13.5% 7.9% -0.3%
MIL 2 0.554 53.0% 18.0% 1.2%
STL WC 0.530 47.0% 13.7% 1.0%
AL 68.3% -2.2%
NL 31.7% 2.2%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.