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Projections Update: Phillies Regain Edge


Due to an unfortunate rain-out last night in the Bronx, there was very little change in most teams' playoff chances. Matt Moore's spectacular performance against the Rangers, on the other hand, put the Rays in charge of the ALDS and the Phillies back on top of the whole shebang. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.

Raw data available after the jump.

Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/1/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 56.5% 29.5% 17.5% -0.7%
TEX 2 0.640 39.1% 22.7% 14.7% -0.4%
DET 3 0.589 43.5% 19.7% 10.5% -0.3%
TBR WC 0.592 60.9% 28.1% 15.3% -0.6%
PHI 1 0.605 65.4% 43.4% 21.8% 1.1%
MIL 2 0.554 58.0% 24.9% 9.7% 0.6%
ARI 3 0.519 42.0% 14.6% 4.7% 0.3%
STL WC 0.530 34.6% 17.0% 5.8% 0.1%
AL 58.0% -2.1%
NL 42.0% 2.1%

Figures of Note:

  • Even though the Rays are now the favorites to take the LDS, the simulation indicates that a 3-1 Rays victory is only slightly more likely than a 3-2 Rangers victory (~24% each).

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.