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BtB Power Rankings: Week 20

By JinAZ

Toprank-082010_medium

 

Allrank-082010_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Standings

American League: E=Rays, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Phillies*


This Week's Feature: The Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have surged of late, getting back into the playoff picture in the East and, this week, pulling ahead of the Rockies into the lead for the NL wild card.  

When you think of a Phillies team over the past several years, most of us tend to think offense.  This year's squad is certainly a good offensive team, but they rank "just" 6th in the league in park-adjusted wOBA (0.326), with comparable OBP and SLG ranks, and average baserunning.  Of course, they might rank better, were it not for a number of key injuries: each of their star infielders have been on the DL at some point this season.

Fielding-wise, we rate the Phillies as above-average.  There is disagreement among the metrics on this.  UZR has them at -9 runs this season, whereas DRS has them at +6 runs and our in-house team stat based on FIP and base runs has them as outstanding at +28 runs.  Combining these statistics, along with the excellent catching of Carlos Ruiz (who is having a fabulous season, both at bat and behind the dish) and company gives us an estimate of 12 runs above average: 6th in the league.  This seems in keeping with their reputation, so I'm confident that this number is reasonably close.

Their pitching received a significant boost this season with the addition of the perennially-superb Roy Halladay.  The result of his efforts, as well as quietly very good performance by Cole Hamels and the supporting cast of Joe Blanton and the recently-arrived Roy Oswalt, is the 3rd-best team xFIP in the National League.  It's worth noting that their team FIP (4.11), while close to their xFIP (3.99), ranks them substantially lower (12th) despite a correction for the permissiveness of Citizen Bank Park to home runs in the FIP calculation.  As we use both FIP and xFIP to estimate pitcher performance, the Phillies don't look as good in our rankings as they might have earlier this season when we only used xFIP.

Overall, this looks like a team that is pretty good at everything--they hit well, they field well, and they pitch well.  They may not be the best at anything, but this is a well-rounded team that can beat you in multiple ways.  And remember, they've had significant injuries for almost the entire year: ignoring catchers, they've had their starting position players all in the lineup at the same time just four times since April 14th.  With Utley back, and Howard due back soon, this could be the team to beat for the NL wild card--and they might well challenge the Braves for the East.

Under the Hood

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% SoS cW%s xtW LgQ TPI
ARI 122 523 520 636 590 0.385 0.408 0.439 0.520 0.459 65 0.482 0.442
ATL 121 560 559 453 462 0.587 0.596 0.586 0.502 0.588 95 0.482 0.571
BAL 122 452 490 634 633 0.352 0.347 0.382 0.514 0.396 59 0.518 0.413
BOS 122 607 623 538 552 0.566 0.557 0.557 0.504 0.561 91 0.518 0.579
CHW 121 550 533 489 513 0.545 0.554 0.518 0.483 0.501 87 0.518 0.519
CHC 122 496 509 579 553 0.410 0.429 0.461 0.486 0.447 68 0.482 0.430
CIN 121 579 578 486 518 0.579 0.581 0.551 0.476 0.526 92 0.482 0.508
CLE 121 504 510 598 581 0.413 0.420 0.439 0.505 0.444 68 0.518 0.462
COL 120 519 524 488 487 0.517 0.529 0.534 0.503 0.537 84 0.482 0.519
DET 121 518 540 572 563 0.479 0.453 0.480 0.496 0.477 78 0.518 0.495
FLA 120 536 532 525 517 0.500 0.510 0.513 0.514 0.528 82 0.482 0.510
HOU 120 468 455 573 532 0.442 0.407 0.428 0.502 0.429 71 0.482 0.412
KCR 121 482 489 609 628 0.421 0.392 0.385 0.505 0.389 67 0.518 0.406
LAD 122 545 534 540 522 0.508 0.504 0.511 0.507 0.518 83 0.482 0.500
LAA 122 549 512 568 580 0.500 0.485 0.442 0.497 0.439 79 0.518 0.457
MIL 121 576 603 649 602 0.471 0.442 0.500 0.489 0.489 77 0.482 0.471
MIN 121 595 599 496 494 0.579 0.585 0.589 0.490 0.579 94 0.518 0.596
NYY 121 651 626 495 529 0.620 0.627 0.580 0.494 0.574 99 0.518 0.592
NYM 121 498 507 485 531 0.496 0.512 0.479 0.519 0.497 80 0.482 0.479
OAK 120 493 492 473 484 0.500 0.518 0.507 0.488 0.495 81 0.518 0.513
PHI 120 554 537 485 501 0.567 0.561 0.532 0.513 0.545 91 0.482 0.527
PIT 121 416 439 653 624 0.331 0.301 0.341 0.506 0.346 54 0.482 0.330
SDP 120 580 546 444 448 0.608 0.621 0.590 0.496 0.586 98 0.482 0.569
SEA 121 405 417 530 529 0.397 0.382 0.394 0.498 0.392 64 0.518 0.410
SFG 122 528 526 459 502 0.557 0.563 0.522 0.506 0.527 89 0.482 0.509
STL 118 557 552 463 486 0.551 0.585 0.559 0.490 0.549 89 0.482 0.531
TBR 121 614 584 469 486 0.612 0.624 0.585 0.505 0.590 98 0.518 0.608
TEX 120 579 572 496 529 0.558 0.572 0.536 0.481 0.518 89 0.518 0.536
TOR 120 557 569 521 493 0.525 0.531 0.567 0.505 0.571 87 0.518 0.589
WSN 121 482 491 555 539 0.430 0.435 0.457 0.507 0.464 71 0.482 0.446

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustments or strength of schedule adjustments, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
SoS = Strength of Schedule.  This is an iterative weighted average of the component-based winning percentages of a team's opponents.  Described in this post.
cW%s = Schedule-adjusted Component Winning Percentage.  Calculated by applying SoS to cW% with the log5 method, as described in this post.
xTW = Extrapolated wins.  Based on current real wins to date, and extrapolated wins over the rest of the season.  Extrapolations are based on an average of cW% and cW%s, as justified in this post.
LgQ = League Quality.  The AL has superior talent to the NL (justification here and here, and modified most recently here).  The number shown is an estimated true talent level (in winning percentage) of the two leagues were they to be able to play one other for a large number of games.  It's based on the last two years of interleague, with a small adjustment toward 0.500 to account for the fact that the leagues do play one another and thus have already had a small effect on one another's performance.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on cW%s, after adjustment for league quality. Think of this as the W% we'd expect teams to have if they were all in one big league and were allowed to play 10,000 games vs. every team.

 

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG HitRns EqBRR RA eRA ERA FIP* xFIP PitRns Field BABIP
ARI 523 520 0.321 0.329 0.421 528 -8 636 590 5.15 4.77 4.55 573 4 0.312
ATL 560 559 0.331 0.340 0.400 558 0 453 462 3.42 3.65 3.91 486 21 0.290
BAL 452 490 0.314 0.317 0.390 497 -6 634 633 4.91 4.49 4.76 598 -44 0.313
BOS 607 623 0.346 0.343 0.461 626 -3 538 552 4.17 4.24 4.36 556 6 0.297
CHW 550 533 0.325 0.330 0.428 534 -1 489 513 3.97 3.65 4.13 515 -17 0.307
CHC 496 509 0.318 0.322 0.408 513 -4 579 553 4.43 4.08 4.27 535 -19 0.319
CIN 579 578 0.336 0.338 0.436 577 1 486 518 3.96 4.15 4.46 563 35 0.290
CLE 504 510 0.319 0.324 0.383 509 1 598 581 4.46 4.69 4.70 581 6 0.302
COL 519 524 0.322 0.335 0.421 519 6 488 487 4.10 3.65 4.03 498 -1 0.305
DET 518 540 0.326 0.336 0.411 540 0 572 563 4.54 4.28 4.61 573 -2 0.306
FLA 536 532 0.324 0.321 0.399 522 9 525 517 4.00 3.74 4.11 507 -21 0.311
HOU 468 455 0.304 0.303 0.363 450 4 573 532 4.30 3.77 4.13 509 -34 0.321
KCR 482 489 0.314 0.330 0.394 497 -8 609 628 4.96 4.95 4.63 575 -26 0.312
LAD 545 534 0.325 0.328 0.384 530 4 540 522 4.00 3.73 4.08 514 -19 0.301
LAA 549 512 0.319 0.318 0.402 525 -13 568 580 4.34 4.30 4.44 555 -25 0.307
MIL 576 603 0.341 0.336 0.431 602 1 649 602 4.89 4.23 4.33 539 -60 0.328
MIN 595 599 0.341 0.350 0.438 601 -2 496 494 3.95 3.90 4.11 514 18 0.306
NYY 651 626 0.347 0.349 0.439 626 0 495 529 3.84 4.05 4.26 530 -1 0.285
NYM 498 507 0.318 0.311 0.379 493 14 485 531 3.69 3.96 4.28 541 0 0.306
OAK 493 492 0.314 0.322 0.374 486 6 473 484 3.56 4.17 4.20 517 41 0.280
PHI 554 537 0.326 0.329 0.414 536 1 485 501 3.92 4.11 3.99 495 12 0.298
PIT 416 439 0.300 0.302 0.363 443 -4 653 624 5.05 4.73 4.59 563 -45 0.315
SDP 580 546 0.328 0.324 0.378 544 2 444 448 3.20 3.89 3.76 471 43 0.285
SEA 405 417 0.295 0.302 0.342 422 -5 530 529 3.92 4.13 4.39 549 13 0.293
SFG 528 526 0.323 0.325 0.405 529 -3 459 502 3.53 3.86 4.25 543 27 0.297
STL 557 552 0.329 0.335 0.413 555 -3 463 486 3.42 4.07 4.02 495 22 0.294
TBR 614 584 0.337 0.338 0.404 573 12 469 486 3.62 3.97 4.13 520 34 0.281
TEX 579 572 0.334 0.340 0.422 563 9 496 529 3.92 4.25 4.38 549 21 0.292
TOR 557 569 0.334 0.313 0.454 572 -3 521 493 4.12 3.91 4.16 513 15 0.297
WSN 482 491 0.314 0.320 0.399 499 -8 555 539 4.16 4.09 4.37 540 -6 0.311

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: HitRns + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both HitRns and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
HitRns = Base Runs-estimated runs scored, ignoring all base running, using the equation in this post.
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: PitRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP* = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.  HR/FB rates are park adjusted using these park factors.
xFIP = Expected Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
PitRns = Pitching Runs Allowed, the expected runs allowed based on the average of FIP and xFIP.  Described in this post.
Field = Described in this post.  It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld.  BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding.  The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The catching methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy.  If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.

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