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BtB Power Rankings: Week 19

By JinAZ

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"On Paper" Playoff Rankings

American League: E=Rays, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Rockies

Under the Hood

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% SoS cW%s xtW LgQ TPI
ARI 115 492 492 593 559 0.400 0.412 0.440 0.524 0.463 67 0.482 0.446
ATL 114 525 531 436 445 0.579 0.585 0.581 0.503 0.584 94 0.482 0.566
BAL 114 427 468 606 594 0.351 0.341 0.390 0.513 0.403 59 0.518 0.420
BOS 115 573 586 503 520 0.574 0.561 0.556 0.503 0.559 92 0.518 0.577
CHW 114 509 493 450 476 0.561 0.556 0.517 0.477 0.494 88 0.518 0.512
CHC 114 466 481 538 506 0.421 0.434 0.476 0.484 0.461 70 0.482 0.443
CIN 115 540 542 466 499 0.557 0.568 0.538 0.484 0.523 89 0.482 0.505
CLE 114 470 476 569 553 0.412 0.411 0.430 0.514 0.444 68 0.518 0.461
COL 113 503 509 462 462 0.522 0.539 0.544 0.504 0.548 86 0.482 0.530
DET 114 483 500 528 527 0.482 0.459 0.476 0.491 0.467 78 0.518 0.485
FLA 112 511 501 500 488 0.500 0.510 0.512 0.521 0.533 82 0.482 0.515
HOU 113 442 430 557 510 0.425 0.394 0.420 0.507 0.427 69 0.482 0.409
KCR 114 457 461 580 585 0.412 0.390 0.390 0.500 0.390 66 0.518 0.407
LAD 114 520 512 507 495 0.518 0.511 0.516 0.504 0.520 84 0.482 0.502
LAA 116 529 490 543 552 0.509 0.488 0.444 0.490 0.435 79 0.518 0.452
MIL 115 547 576 626 579 0.461 0.435 0.497 0.488 0.485 76 0.482 0.467
MIN 114 565 563 467 464 0.561 0.589 0.590 0.486 0.577 92 0.518 0.594
NYY 113 608 584 469 491 0.619 0.622 0.581 0.496 0.577 98 0.518 0.595
NYM 113 481 485 467 507 0.496 0.513 0.480 0.523 0.503 80 0.482 0.485
OAK 113 471 471 451 465 0.504 0.520 0.506 0.481 0.487 81 0.518 0.505
PHI 113 519 512 465 476 0.558 0.551 0.533 0.514 0.547 89 0.482 0.529
PIT 113 400 419 620 593 0.345 0.305 0.343 0.506 0.348 56 0.482 0.332
SDP 112 541 508 426 424 0.589 0.608 0.583 0.501 0.584 95 0.482 0.566
SEA 115 378 388 505 507 0.383 0.372 0.382 0.500 0.382 62 0.518 0.400
SFG 115 503 503 420 476 0.565 0.581 0.525 0.504 0.529 90 0.482 0.511
STL 113 537 530 441 470 0.566 0.590 0.556 0.491 0.547 91 0.482 0.529
TBR 114 577 548 443 462 0.605 0.621 0.579 0.506 0.585 97 0.518 0.602
TEX 113 551 541 454 496 0.575 0.590 0.541 0.474 0.515 91 0.518 0.533
TOR 113 533 545 496 469 0.522 0.534 0.570 0.504 0.575 87 0.518 0.592
WSN 114 461 471 522 510 0.430 0.443 0.464 0.507 0.470 71 0.482 0.452

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustments or strength of schedule adjustments, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.

SoS = Strength of Schedule. This is an iterative weighted average of the component-based winning percentages of a team's opponents. Described in this post.
cW%s = Schedule-adjusted Component Winning Percentage. Calculated by applying SoS to cW% with the log5 method, as described in this post.
xTW = Extrapolated wins. Based on current real wins to date, and extrapolated wins over the rest of the season. Extrapolations are based on an average of cW% and cW%s, as justified in this post.

LgQ = League Quality. The AL has superior talent to the NL (justification here and here, and modified most recently here). The number shown is an estimated true talent level (in winning percentage) of the two leagues were they to be able to play one other for a large number of games. It's based on the last two years of interleague, with a small adjustment toward 0.500 to account for the fact that the leagues do play one another and thus have already had a small effect on one another's performance.

TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on cW%s, after adjustment for league quality. Think of this as the W% we'd expect teams to have if they were all in one big league and were allowed to play 10,000 games vs. every team.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG HitRns EqBRR RA eRA ERA FIP* xFIP PitRns Field BABIP
ARI 492 492 0.322 0.330 0.420 500 -8 593 559 5.12 4.78 4.56 542 4 0.310
ATL 525 531 0.332 0.340 0.401 530 1 436 445 3.50 3.75 3.98 466 19 0.290
BAL 427 468 0.315 0.318 0.393 471 -3 606 594 5.03 4.52 4.78 560 -41 0.314
BOS 573 586 0.346 0.344 0.459 589 -3 503 520 4.11 4.24 4.42 531 9 0.294
CHW 509 493 0.322 0.327 0.421 492 1 450 476 3.87 3.60 4.15 487 -9 0.305
CHC 466 481 0.319 0.323 0.410 485 -4 538 506 4.40 4.06 4.23 495 -11 0.319
CIN 540 542 0.335 0.336 0.433 542 0 466 499 4.04 4.16 4.51 541 30 0.290
CLE 470 476 0.317 0.323 0.380 475 0 569 553 4.52 4.71 4.71 548 2 0.303
COL 503 509 0.326 0.340 0.428 505 4 462 462 4.14 3.72 4.07 474 3 0.303
DET 483 500 0.324 0.336 0.404 501 -1 528 527 4.43 4.20 4.59 538 -2 0.306
FLA 511 501 0.324 0.321 0.400 492 9 500 488 4.05 3.78 4.17 482 -19 0.312
HOU 442 430 0.304 0.304 0.361 424 6 557 510 4.45 3.84 4.17 481 -38 0.325
KCR 457 461 0.313 0.329 0.392 469 -8 580 585 5.01 4.99 4.66 545 -15 0.311
LAD 520 512 0.327 0.329 0.389 508 4 507 495 4.00 3.80 4.09 482 -20 0.301
LAA 529 490 0.321 0.318 0.402 503 -13 543 552 4.35 4.25 4.38 520 -30 0.310
MIL 547 576 0.343 0.335 0.432 575 0 626 579 4.99 4.25 4.34 513 -62 0.332
MIN 565 563 0.340 0.350 0.437 567 -4 467 464 3.95 3.90 4.11 484 18 0.305
NYY 608 584 0.346 0.349 0.437 583 1 469 491 3.87 4.04 4.28 498 2 0.285
NYM 481 485 0.320 0.314 0.384 473 12 467 507 3.84 4.05 4.36 514 -2 0.310
OAK 471 471 0.316 0.323 0.378 466 6 451 465 3.63 4.20 4.22 490 34 0.281
PHI 519 512 0.327 0.330 0.418 510 1 465 476 3.99 4.18 4.05 473 14 0.299
PIT 400 419 0.301 0.305 0.367 424 -5 620 593 5.12 4.81 4.63 531 -45 0.317
SDP 541 508 0.326 0.322 0.379 506 2 426 424 3.29 3.98 3.78 441 40 0.286
SEA 378 388 0.293 0.301 0.337 391 -3 505 507 3.99 4.17 4.43 525 12 0.294
SFG 503 503 0.325 0.328 0.406 505 -2 420 476 3.45 3.91 4.26 512 26 0.293
STL 537 530 0.332 0.336 0.416 537 -6 441 470 3.41 4.08 4.07 479 20 0.296
TBR 577 548 0.336 0.337 0.400 535 14 443 462 3.62 3.99 4.14 491 30 0.282
TEX 551 541 0.334 0.340 0.420 532 9 454 496 3.80 4.26 4.40 520 25 0.287
TOR 533 545 0.336 0.313 0.460 548 -3 496 469 4.16 3.88 4.15 482 8 0.299
WSN 461 471 0.316 0.322 0.401 479 -8 522 510 4.15 4.12 4.43 516 -3 0.309

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: HitRns + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both HitRns and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
HitRns = Base Runs-estimated runs scored, ignoring all base running, using the equation in this post.
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: PitRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP* = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates. HR/FB rates are park adjusted using these park factors.
xFIP = Expected Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
PitRns = Pitching Runs Allowed, the expected runs allowed based on the average of FIP and xFIP. Described in this post.
Field = Described in this post. It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld. BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding. The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The catching methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy. If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.

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