"On Paper" Playoff Rankings
American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Rockies*
* New this week
This Weeks' Breakdown
First, a quick methods update: I opted to change the new fielding term that debuted last week so that it uses FIP instead of xFIP. This way, I'm not crediting/penalizing fielders for differences in typical HR/FB rate. I am park-adjusting the HR term in FIP used in this calculation. For the most part, it doesn't make a huge difference.
The Rockies are the latest team to enter the power rankings. They are always a tough team to evaluate because of the strong influence of their home park, but last year we had them ranked higher than most other power rankings for most of the year...and they did ultimately make the playoffs. This week, they have finally risen into the wild card slot.
Last year's team won with their pitching, which many didn't recognize for being as good as it was because of the park factors. This year's team is more balanced in its attack: the offense is average (8th in NL in park adjusted wOBA, .324), the fielding is a bit above average (+8 in fielding by our metric), and their pitching is a bit above average as well (6th in xFIP at 4.15, 6th in FIP at 3.89). They're an interesting team moving forward. The injury to Helton could let them move Hawpe's horrid fielding to 1B, and might get Seth Smith--who has fabulous projections and has been above-average in the field--get more PT. Add to that a return by Tulowitzki late in the season, and this team could make a big push...even despite the inevitable(?) regression from Jimenez.
Under the Hood
(for the curious amongst you)
Converting Wins to Runs
| Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | xtW | LgAdj | TPI |
| ARI | 85 | 365 | 366 | 463 | 407 | 0.376 | 0.388 | 0.449 | 67 | -7 | 0.431 |
| ATL | 85 | 402 | 400 | 335 | 336 | 0.588 | 0.583 | 0.581 | 95 | -7 | 0.563 |
| BAL | 84 | 301 | 330 | 454 | 444 | 0.298 | 0.316 | 0.365 | 53 | 7 | 0.382 |
| BOS | 85 | 446 | 462 | 383 | 393 | 0.576 | 0.573 | 0.577 | 93 | 7 | 0.593 |
| CHW | 83 | 353 | 346 | 345 | 355 | 0.542 | 0.512 | 0.488 | 84 | 7 | 0.507 |
| CHC | 85 | 330 | 342 | 367 | 352 | 0.447 | 0.451 | 0.488 | 76 | -7 | 0.469 |
| CIN | 86 | 411 | 425 | 363 | 396 | 0.570 | 0.558 | 0.533 | 90 | -7 | 0.516 |
| CLE | 84 | 351 | 352 | 431 | 414 | 0.393 | 0.404 | 0.425 | 66 | 7 | 0.442 |
| COL | 84 | 375 | 385 | 337 | 354 | 0.548 | 0.549 | 0.539 | 88 | -7 | 0.521 |
| DET | 83 | 380 | 406 | 373 | 378 | 0.554 | 0.509 | 0.534 | 88 | 7 | 0.551 |
| FLA | 84 | 395 | 387 | 371 | 373 | 0.476 | 0.530 | 0.517 | 80 | -7 | 0.499 |
| HOU | 85 | 302 | 273 | 421 | 400 | 0.400 | 0.351 | 0.330 | 59 | -7 | 0.312 |
| KCR | 85 | 366 | 379 | 397 | 410 | 0.459 | 0.462 | 0.463 | 75 | 7 | 0.480 |
| LAD | 84 | 413 | 407 | 389 | 380 | 0.548 | 0.529 | 0.533 | 88 | -7 | 0.516 |
| LAA | 87 | 407 | 372 | 414 | 425 | 0.529 | 0.492 | 0.438 | 79 | 7 | 0.455 |
| MIL | 85 | 404 | 427 | 456 | 431 | 0.435 | 0.442 | 0.496 | 75 | -7 | 0.479 |
| MIN | 84 | 394 | 412 | 347 | 347 | 0.536 | 0.559 | 0.580 | 90 | 7 | 0.597 |
| NYY | 84 | 456 | 450 | 347 | 357 | 0.631 | 0.627 | 0.609 | 101 | 7 | 0.625 |
| NYM | 85 | 399 | 382 | 346 | 384 | 0.553 | 0.566 | 0.498 | 85 | -7 | 0.480 |
| OAK | 86 | 351 | 358 | 363 | 362 | 0.477 | 0.484 | 0.495 | 79 | 7 | 0.513 |
| PHI | 83 | 383 | 358 | 342 | 349 | 0.518 | 0.553 | 0.513 | 83 | -7 | 0.494 |
| PIT | 84 | 275 | 283 | 466 | 430 | 0.357 | 0.272 | 0.313 | 54 | -7 | 0.296 |
| SDP | 84 | 385 | 356 | 310 | 307 | 0.583 | 0.598 | 0.567 | 93 | -7 | 0.548 |
| SEA | 84 | 296 | 297 | 366 | 371 | 0.405 | 0.405 | 0.401 | 65 | 7 | 0.420 |
| SFG | 84 | 365 | 362 | 312 | 363 | 0.524 | 0.571 | 0.499 | 83 | -7 | 0.481 |
| STL | 84 | 388 | 397 | 332 | 336 | 0.536 | 0.571 | 0.578 | 90 | -7 | 0.560 |
| TBR | 84 | 430 | 416 | 326 | 332 | 0.607 | 0.627 | 0.605 | 98 | 7 | 0.623 |
| TEX | 84 | 432 | 425 | 349 | 377 | 0.595 | 0.600 | 0.556 | 93 | 7 | 0.573 |
| TOR | 85 | 382 | 368 | 384 | 362 | 0.494 | 0.498 | 0.508 | 81 | 7 | 0.527 |
| WSN | 85 | 347 | 360 | 390 | 392 | 0.447 | 0.445 | 0.460 | 73 | -7 | 0.442 |
G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here, and modified most recently here). The number shown is the number of runs credited to both the offense and defense of AL teams, as well as the number penalized to both the offenses and defenses of NL teams. By season's end, each team's run differential will be altered by 28 runs.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses and Defenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | xFIPrns | Field | BABIP |
| ARI | 365 | 366 | 0.323 | 0.328 | 0.421 | 374 | -7 | -16 | 463 | 407 | 5.39 | 4.93 | 4.60 | 400 | -7 | 0.320 |
| ATL | 402 | 400 | 0.330 | 0.342 | 0.394 | 396 | 5 | 9 | 335 | 336 | 3.66 | 3.85 | 4.03 | 349 | 13 | 0.292 |
| BAL | 301 | 330 | 0.312 | 0.318 | 0.380 | 331 | -1 | -12 | 454 | 444 | 5.14 | 4.80 | 4.83 | 412 | -32 | 0.318 |
| BOS | 446 | 462 | 0.351 | 0.350 | 0.466 | 464 | -2 | -8 | 383 | 393 | 4.33 | 4.14 | 4.51 | 400 | 7 | 0.298 |
| CHW | 353 | 346 | 0.320 | 0.324 | 0.406 | 346 | 0 | 1 | 345 | 355 | 4.10 | 3.82 | 4.12 | 351 | -4 | 0.306 |
| CHC | 330 | 342 | 0.314 | 0.322 | 0.399 | 347 | -5 | -39 | 367 | 352 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 356 | 4 | 0.305 |
| CIN | 411 | 425 | 0.338 | 0.340 | 0.448 | 424 | 1 | -6 | 363 | 396 | 4.25 | 4.34 | 4.54 | 406 | 10 | 0.303 |
| CLE | 351 | 352 | 0.319 | 0.323 | 0.381 | 353 | -1 | -14 | 431 | 414 | 4.65 | 4.52 | 4.72 | 403 | -10 | 0.308 |
| COL | 375 | 385 | 0.324 | 0.340 | 0.426 | 380 | 5 | -21 | 337 | 354 | 4.04 | 3.89 | 4.15 | 362 | 8 | 0.299 |
| DET | 380 | 406 | 0.338 | 0.344 | 0.422 | 407 | -1 | 25 | 373 | 378 | 4.29 | 4.13 | 4.58 | 388 | 10 | 0.303 |
| FLA | 395 | 387 | 0.327 | 0.328 | 0.403 | 382 | 5 | -21 | 371 | 373 | 4.04 | 3.81 | 4.22 | 363 | -10 | 0.308 |
| HOU | 302 | 273 | 0.291 | 0.295 | 0.347 | 270 | 3 | 39 | 421 | 400 | 4.48 | 3.94 | 4.27 | 368 | -32 | 0.330 |
| KCR | 366 | 379 | 0.324 | 0.338 | 0.406 | 379 | 0 | -9 | 397 | 410 | 4.59 | 4.50 | 4.61 | 402 | -7 | 0.301 |
| LAD | 413 | 407 | 0.332 | 0.337 | 0.407 | 400 | 7 | -10 | 389 | 380 | 4.10 | 3.86 | 4.07 | 353 | -27 | 0.308 |
| LAA | 407 | 372 | 0.323 | 0.323 | 0.402 | 374 | -2 | 12 | 414 | 425 | 4.39 | 4.28 | 4.46 | 398 | -27 | 0.311 |
| MIL | 404 | 427 | 0.339 | 0.333 | 0.429 | 427 | 0 | -25 | 456 | 431 | 4.87 | 4.35 | 4.42 | 387 | -44 | 0.329 |
| MIN | 394 | 412 | 0.338 | 0.344 | 0.423 | 413 | -1 | -15 | 347 | 347 | 3.96 | 3.91 | 4.14 | 359 | 12 | 0.306 |
| NYY | 456 | 450 | 0.350 | 0.354 | 0.434 | 456 | -5 | 21 | 347 | 357 | 3.90 | 4.18 | 4.26 | 367 | 10 | 0.281 |
| NYM | 399 | 382 | 0.326 | 0.324 | 0.402 | 378 | 5 | -6 | 346 | 384 | 3.83 | 4.12 | 4.41 | 389 | 5 | 0.308 |
| OAK | 351 | 358 | 0.318 | 0.323 | 0.376 | 359 | -1 | -1 | 363 | 362 | 3.89 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 378 | 16 | 0.288 |
| PHI | 383 | 358 | 0.323 | 0.325 | 0.416 | 365 | -7 | 14 | 342 | 349 | 4.03 | 4.26 | 4.17 | 354 | 5 | 0.293 |
| PIT | 275 | 283 | 0.299 | 0.303 | 0.355 | 288 | -5 | 16 | 466 | 430 | 5.13 | 4.77 | 4.72 | 401 | -30 | 0.316 |
| SDP | 385 | 356 | 0.319 | 0.318 | 0.366 | 354 | 2 | 3 | 310 | 307 | 3.16 | 3.72 | 3.83 | 337 | 30 | 0.283 |
| SEA | 296 | 297 | 0.302 | 0.309 | 0.348 | 300 | -3 | 7 | 366 | 371 | 3.93 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 388 | 17 | 0.292 |
| SFG | 365 | 362 | 0.321 | 0.324 | 0.403 | 361 | 1 | -11 | 312 | 363 | 3.46 | 3.89 | 4.38 | 384 | 22 | 0.290 |
| STL | 388 | 397 | 0.334 | 0.334 | 0.414 | 399 | -2 | -17 | 332 | 336 | 3.42 | 3.94 | 4.03 | 350 | 15 | 0.298 |
| TBR | 430 | 416 | 0.335 | 0.339 | 0.403 | 410 | 6 | -16 | 326 | 332 | 3.58 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 361 | 29 | 0.285 |
| TEX | 432 | 425 | 0.338 | 0.345 | 0.430 | 416 | 9 | 9 | 349 | 377 | 3.90 | 4.32 | 4.51 | 394 | 16 | 0.288 |
| TOR | 382 | 368 | 0.326 | 0.305 | 0.438 | 371 | -3 | 10 | 384 | 362 | 4.30 | 4.03 | 4.17 | 364 | 2 | 0.301 |
| WSN | 347 | 360 | 0.322 | 0.328 | 0.402 | 364 | -4 | -15 | 390 | 392 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 4.50 | 391 | -2 | 0.313 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: xFIPRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = Described in this post. It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld. BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding. The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.