The power rankings were on vacation last week, and have been trying to get caught up this week. But at long last, they are ready to show their face once again!
On Paper Playoff Rankings
American League: E=Rays*, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Rockies
This Week: The Rays overtake the Yankees
While they still trail by three games in reality, the Rays have overtaken the Yankees in the power rankings for the first time since very early in the season. So how do they get to their lofty perch? The 2010 Rays are an incredibly balanced team--essentially, they're good or great at everything.
Offensively, their park-adjusted wOBA of .339 ranks fourth overall in baseball. While they're well behind the Yankees (.352) and Red Sox (.347), they're still a powerful offensive club. Their power isn't spectacular (.409 slugging ranks middle of the pack), but they get on base (.343 OBP) and they run the bases well (+9 EqBRR). We estimate that they've scored 7 more runs than expected based on their component statistics, but this is still a good offensive team. They could be better, of course, and if they acquire Jayson Werth without giving up any 25-man players, this could be a deadly team down the stretch (not that they aren't already).
What really sets them apart, however, is their pitching and fielding. Their 4.17 xFIP ranks 3rd in the AL, and our composite fielding statistic rates them as the best fielding team in baseball (+31 runs; +23 UZR, +1 catching, +40 DRS, +27 BsRFIP fielding). These things combine to give them the lowest expected runs allowed--and lowest park-adjusted runs allowed--in the American League. Based on wins to date, and our component statistics-based winning percentage, we project them to win 99 games...which, ridiculously, would be just good enough to win the wild card.
Under the Hood
Converting Runs to Wins
| Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | xtW | LgAdj | TPI |
| ARI | 96 | 409 | 409 | 509 | 451 | 0.385 | 0.397 | 0.453 | 67 | -8 | 0.435 |
| ATL | 95 | 445 | 451 | 370 | 378 | 0.589 | 0.586 | 0.581 | 95 | -8 | 0.563 |
| BAL | 95 | 345 | 376 | 511 | 503 | 0.316 | 0.323 | 0.367 | 55 | 8 | 0.383 |
| BOS | 96 | 495 | 511 | 434 | 446 | 0.563 | 0.563 | 0.564 | 91 | 8 | 0.581 |
| CHW | 94 | 412 | 403 | 379 | 401 | 0.553 | 0.538 | 0.502 | 86 | 8 | 0.520 |
| CHC | 96 | 393 | 401 | 428 | 405 | 0.448 | 0.461 | 0.496 | 76 | -8 | 0.477 |
| CIN | 97 | 451 | 464 | 404 | 442 | 0.546 | 0.551 | 0.523 | 87 | -8 | 0.506 |
| CLE | 95 | 403 | 408 | 470 | 467 | 0.421 | 0.427 | 0.437 | 69 | 8 | 0.454 |
| COL | 95 | 422 | 428 | 382 | 394 | 0.537 | 0.546 | 0.537 | 87 | -8 | 0.519 |
| DET | 94 | 420 | 449 | 426 | 436 | 0.532 | 0.493 | 0.514 | 85 | 8 | 0.531 |
| FLA | 95 | 428 | 411 | 414 | 417 | 0.495 | 0.516 | 0.492 | 80 | -8 | 0.474 |
| HOU | 95 | 343 | 312 | 480 | 447 | 0.411 | 0.349 | 0.339 | 62 | -8 | 0.320 |
| KCR | 95 | 400 | 417 | 472 | 465 | 0.432 | 0.423 | 0.448 | 71 | 8 | 0.466 |
| LAD | 96 | 457 | 451 | 440 | 430 | 0.531 | 0.517 | 0.523 | 86 | -8 | 0.505 |
| LAA | 98 | 454 | 414 | 469 | 469 | 0.520 | 0.484 | 0.441 | 79 | 8 | 0.459 |
| MIL | 97 | 463 | 496 | 525 | 489 | 0.454 | 0.439 | 0.507 | 77 | -8 | 0.491 |
| MIN | 96 | 450 | 469 | 406 | 395 | 0.531 | 0.548 | 0.579 | 89 | 8 | 0.597 |
| NYY | 94 | 515 | 512 | 395 | 406 | 0.638 | 0.625 | 0.609 | 101 | 8 | 0.625 |
| NYM | 96 | 419 | 407 | 391 | 438 | 0.510 | 0.532 | 0.466 | 80 | -8 | 0.448 |
| OAK | 95 | 409 | 409 | 395 | 398 | 0.505 | 0.516 | 0.512 | 82 | 8 | 0.531 |
| PHI | 95 | 424 | 403 | 398 | 396 | 0.516 | 0.530 | 0.507 | 83 | -8 | 0.488 |
| PIT | 95 | 339 | 340 | 512 | 473 | 0.358 | 0.316 | 0.349 | 57 | -8 | 0.332 |
| SDP | 94 | 449 | 422 | 363 | 349 | 0.585 | 0.598 | 0.587 | 95 | -8 | 0.568 |
| SEA | 96 | 327 | 317 | 423 | 428 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.369 | 61 | 8 | 0.388 |
| SFG | 96 | 420 | 411 | 347 | 414 | 0.552 | 0.586 | 0.497 | 86 | -8 | 0.479 |
| STL | 96 | 446 | 452 | 360 | 386 | 0.563 | 0.598 | 0.572 | 92 | -8 | 0.554 |
| TBR | 94 | 491 | 484 | 378 | 379 | 0.606 | 0.621 | 0.614 | 99 | 8 | 0.631 |
| TEX | 96 | 484 | 482 | 394 | 432 | 0.583 | 0.596 | 0.552 | 92 | 8 | 0.569 |
| TOR | 96 | 442 | 434 | 428 | 411 | 0.500 | 0.515 | 0.525 | 83 | 8 | 0.544 |
| WSN | 96 | 390 | 405 | 438 | 436 | 0.438 | 0.447 | 0.465 | 73 | -8 | 0.447 |
G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here, and modified most recently here). The number shown is the number of runs credited to both the offense and defense of AL teams, as well as the number penalized to both the offenses and defenses of NL teams. By season's end, each team's run differential will be altered by 28 runs.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses and Defenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | xFIPrns | Field | BABIP |
| ARI | 409 | 409 | 0.321 | 0.328 | 0.419 | 418 | -9 | -29 | 509 | 451 | 5.25 | 4.86 | 4.51 | 446 | -5 | 0.316 |
| ATL | 445 | 451 | 0.332 | 0.343 | 0.398 | 447 | 3 | -1 | 370 | 378 | 3.61 | 3.88 | 4.04 | 394 | 16 | 0.292 |
| BAL | 345 | 376 | 0.313 | 0.317 | 0.385 | 379 | -3 | -6 | 511 | 503 | 5.07 | 4.77 | 4.81 | 469 | -34 | 0.316 |
| BOS | 495 | 511 | 0.347 | 0.346 | 0.461 | 514 | -3 | -11 | 434 | 446 | 4.27 | 4.19 | 4.54 | 458 | 11 | 0.294 |
| CHW | 412 | 403 | 0.323 | 0.327 | 0.416 | 402 | 1 | -10 | 379 | 401 | 3.94 | 3.71 | 4.10 | 396 | -5 | 0.308 |
| CHC | 393 | 401 | 0.319 | 0.325 | 0.410 | 407 | -6 | -50 | 428 | 405 | 4.13 | 4.06 | 4.13 | 407 | 2 | 0.306 |
| CIN | 451 | 464 | 0.334 | 0.336 | 0.438 | 463 | 1 | -22 | 404 | 442 | 4.18 | 4.35 | 4.54 | 460 | 18 | 0.294 |
| CLE | 403 | 408 | 0.321 | 0.325 | 0.384 | 407 | 1 | -15 | 470 | 467 | 4.48 | 4.47 | 4.72 | 458 | -9 | 0.307 |
| COL | 422 | 428 | 0.323 | 0.338 | 0.423 | 421 | 6 | -11 | 382 | 394 | 4.03 | 3.85 | 4.10 | 403 | 9 | 0.299 |
| DET | 420 | 449 | 0.334 | 0.341 | 0.418 | 450 | -1 | 14 | 426 | 436 | 4.33 | 4.12 | 4.56 | 441 | 5 | 0.304 |
| FLA | 428 | 411 | 0.321 | 0.322 | 0.394 | 407 | 4 | -3 | 414 | 417 | 3.98 | 3.73 | 4.16 | 406 | -12 | 0.310 |
| HOU | 343 | 312 | 0.294 | 0.296 | 0.350 | 308 | 4 | 41 | 480 | 447 | 4.53 | 3.93 | 4.23 | 410 | -37 | 0.330 |
| KCR | 400 | 417 | 0.322 | 0.336 | 0.403 | 416 | 1 | -8 | 472 | 465 | 4.88 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 452 | -13 | 0.306 |
| LAD | 457 | 451 | 0.329 | 0.335 | 0.402 | 443 | 8 | -8 | 440 | 430 | 4.09 | 3.83 | 4.10 | 407 | -23 | 0.307 |
| LAA | 454 | 414 | 0.322 | 0.321 | 0.405 | 418 | -4 | 7 | 469 | 469 | 4.46 | 4.26 | 4.41 | 443 | -26 | 0.310 |
| MIL | 463 | 496 | 0.341 | 0.336 | 0.436 | 497 | -1 | -27 | 525 | 489 | 4.92 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 439 | -49 | 0.329 |
| MIN | 450 | 469 | 0.338 | 0.346 | 0.420 | 469 | 0 | -6 | 406 | 395 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 4.11 | 407 | 11 | 0.310 |
| NYY | 515 | 512 | 0.352 | 0.355 | 0.441 | 516 | -4 | 17 | 395 | 406 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.24 | 410 | 4 | 0.288 |
| NYM | 419 | 407 | 0.319 | 0.317 | 0.392 | 402 | 5 | -22 | 391 | 438 | 3.84 | 4.12 | 4.40 | 439 | 1 | 0.311 |
| OAK | 409 | 409 | 0.322 | 0.325 | 0.386 | 409 | 0 | 0 | 395 | 398 | 3.78 | 4.22 | 4.28 | 419 | 21 | 0.286 |
| PHI | 424 | 403 | 0.320 | 0.322 | 0.411 | 408 | -5 | 16 | 398 | 396 | 4.07 | 4.29 | 4.15 | 406 | 9 | 0.293 |
| PIT | 339 | 340 | 0.305 | 0.307 | 0.368 | 344 | -5 | 8 | 512 | 473 | 5.02 | 4.77 | 4.63 | 446 | -28 | 0.311 |
| SDP | 449 | 422 | 0.325 | 0.323 | 0.378 | 420 | 2 | -4 | 363 | 349 | 3.33 | 3.72 | 3.80 | 374 | 26 | 0.289 |
| SEA | 327 | 317 | 0.297 | 0.304 | 0.341 | 324 | -7 | 15 | 423 | 428 | 3.94 | 4.08 | 4.43 | 441 | 13 | 0.295 |
| SFG | 420 | 411 | 0.321 | 0.326 | 0.404 | 413 | -2 | -1 | 347 | 414 | 3.38 | 3.85 | 4.33 | 434 | 20 | 0.292 |
| STL | 446 | 452 | 0.332 | 0.333 | 0.415 | 449 | 3 | -16 | 360 | 386 | 3.26 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 405 | 19 | 0.296 |
| TBR | 491 | 484 | 0.339 | 0.343 | 0.409 | 476 | 9 | -15 | 378 | 379 | 3.72 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 409 | 31 | 0.284 |
| TEX | 484 | 482 | 0.336 | 0.343 | 0.427 | 472 | 10 | 3 | 394 | 432 | 3.85 | 4.36 | 4.50 | 454 | 22 | 0.283 |
| TOR | 442 | 434 | 0.331 | 0.309 | 0.450 | 437 | -3 | 10 | 428 | 411 | 4.20 | 3.98 | 4.19 | 414 | 3 | 0.303 |
| WSN | 390 | 405 | 0.322 | 0.328 | 0.400 | 411 | -6 | -25 | 438 | 436 | 4.20 | 4.14 | 4.46 | 437 | 1 | 0.309 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: xFIPRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = Described in this post. It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld. BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding. The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The catching methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy. If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.