FanPost

Prospect Surplus Value

[Sky's note: Colin followed up on his prospect value question, creating these sweet tables. That's more than front page-worthy. I respect following-up a lot.]

After taking into account Matt's research (scroll down) to the best of my ability (sorta), I wanted to post a new table for prospect surplus value. Everything should be more or less self explanatory. $MM/yr is the dollar value of that prospect for a given year. Tot$MMsurplus is the total value for all 6 cost controlled seasons minus expected arbitration dollars paid. Hitters:

WAB fWAR rWAR WARP $MM/yr tot$MMsurplus
H1-10 1.40 1.75 1.51 2.19 10.94 47.44
H11-25 1.00 1.25 1.08 1.56 7.81 34.31
H26-50 0.80 1.00 0.86 1.25 6.25 27.75
H51-75 0.60 0.75 0.65 0.94 4.69 21.19
H76-100 0.50 0.63 0.54 0.78 3.91 17.91

And pitchers:

WAB fWAR rWAR WARP $MM/yr tot$MMsurplus
P1-10 0.60 0.75 0.65 0.94 4.69 21.19
P11-25 0.55 0.69 0.59 0.86 4.30 19.55
P26-50 0.50 0.63 0.54 0.78 3.91 17.91
P51-75 0.45 0.56 0.48 0.70 3.52 16.27
P76-100 0.40 0.50 0.43 0.63 3.13 14.63

When you use different replacement levels in a wins over replacement framework, you create a certain number of wins that can be bought in a given year. The higher the replacement level, the fewer the wins above replacement available. So whichever you're using (Wins Above Bench, fangraphs WAR, rally WAR and WARP) needs to be consistent or at least translated properly. The total wins for each look like:

WARP: 1250

fWAR: 1000

rWAR: 865

WAB: 810

After myriad adjustments, Matt found that WARP went at about $5MM per over the last few seasons ('08 to present). This figure will change over time, thanks to inflation, demand and/or CBA changes. Since the total sum paid for wins is constant, but the number of wins are different across systems, the dollars per win figure varies. The more wins, the fewer the dollars per. Here's dollars per win for each system, using $5MM per WARP as a baseline:

WARP: $5MM

fWAR: $6.25MM

rWAR: $7.23MM

WAB: $7.72MM