"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (based on rankings above)
American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Reds
This Week's Feature: The Oakland Athletics
The A's surged a bit in the rankings this week, up five places and 26 points. They posted an 0.836 team OPS over the past week to go with a 4.02 ERA and a 0.711 OPS allowed, much of which seems to have manifested in the 10-1 drubbing they put on the Angels last night. The AL West has seemed surprisingly weak this year thanks to the struggles of the Angels and the Mariners, and as I write this the A's are a game back in the west and only 14 points behind the Rangers in these power rankings.
Offensively, the A's haven't been very good, ranking ahead of only four teams in the American League according to our park-adusted wOBA. They don't get on base particularly often (0.324 OBP), don't hit for a ton of power (0.387 SLG), and don't even run the bases particularly well (-3 EqBRR). Fielding-wise, they rate right about average: +3 runs. The replacement of Eric Chavez with Jack Cust, and the return of Coco Crisp and Mark Ellis should help the position player value a bit.
If the A's have a strength, however, it's their pitching: they rank 6th in the AL in xFIP. The losses of Brett Anderson and Justin Duchscherer have hurt badly, but they still have a serviceable staff including Dallas Braden (4.08 xFIP), Gio Gonzalez (4.25 xFIP), and Trevor Cahill (4.49 xFIP). And while Henry Rodriguez has been unquestionably awful, Vin Mazzaro has decent rest-of-season projections and could be a solid #4 until Anderson returns.
Overall, the A's aren't a very inspiring team. But it might not take an inspiring team to win this division, especially if they luck into a few extra wins here and there. I certainly still favor the Rangers or Angels to take the NL West, but the A's could make those other two teams sweat a bit this season.
Converting Runs to Wins
| Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | xtW | LgAdj | TPI |
| ARI | 59 | 266 | 255 | 326 | 258 | 0.390 | 0.402 | 0.493 | 74 | -7 | 0.465 |
| ATL | 59 | 292 | 290 | 237 | 247 | 0.576 | 0.596 | 0.574 | 93 | -7 | 0.549 |
| BAL | 58 | 193 | 204 | 305 | 300 | 0.276 | 0.300 | 0.329 | 50 | 7 | 0.354 |
| BOS | 60 | 312 | 323 | 269 | 280 | 0.583 | 0.570 | 0.568 | 93 | 7 | 0.591 |
| CHW | 57 | 230 | 224 | 278 | 256 | 0.421 | 0.413 | 0.438 | 70 | 7 | 0.466 |
| CHC | 58 | 233 | 242 | 245 | 227 | 0.448 | 0.476 | 0.529 | 81 | -7 | 0.501 |
| CIN | 59 | 284 | 301 | 263 | 269 | 0.559 | 0.537 | 0.554 | 90 | -7 | 0.529 |
| CLE | 57 | 230 | 227 | 298 | 296 | 0.368 | 0.379 | 0.377 | 61 | 7 | 0.402 |
| COL | 58 | 249 | 252 | 210 | 254 | 0.517 | 0.576 | 0.495 | 82 | -7 | 0.469 |
| DET | 57 | 251 | 274 | 245 | 258 | 0.526 | 0.513 | 0.529 | 86 | 7 | 0.553 |
| FLA | 59 | 272 | 268 | 259 | 263 | 0.475 | 0.523 | 0.508 | 80 | -7 | 0.482 |
| HOU | 59 | 195 | 172 | 291 | 264 | 0.390 | 0.325 | 0.314 | 55 | -7 | 0.287 |
| KCR | 59 | 249 | 257 | 285 | 305 | 0.407 | 0.435 | 0.420 | 67 | 7 | 0.445 |
| LAD | 59 | 289 | 282 | 275 | 284 | 0.593 | 0.523 | 0.496 | 86 | -7 | 0.471 |
| LAA | 61 | 288 | 260 | 301 | 296 | 0.525 | 0.479 | 0.437 | 76 | 8 | 0.463 |
| MIL | 58 | 284 | 301 | 329 | 305 | 0.414 | 0.427 | 0.493 | 75 | -7 | 0.470 |
| MIN | 58 | 274 | 286 | 223 | 233 | 0.586 | 0.594 | 0.593 | 96 | 7 | 0.618 |
| NYY | 58 | 329 | 338 | 237 | 236 | 0.621 | 0.652 | 0.666 | 105 | 7 | 0.688 |
| NYM | 58 | 264 | 263 | 242 | 265 | 0.534 | 0.541 | 0.498 | 83 | -7 | 0.472 |
| OAK | 60 | 251 | 253 | 258 | 260 | 0.517 | 0.487 | 0.489 | 81 | 7 | 0.516 |
| PHI | 57 | 255 | 248 | 219 | 233 | 0.544 | 0.569 | 0.528 | 86 | -7 | 0.501 |
| PIT | 58 | 191 | 199 | 328 | 297 | 0.397 | 0.266 | 0.321 | 56 | -7 | 0.296 |
| SDP | 58 | 267 | 256 | 209 | 200 | 0.586 | 0.611 | 0.609 | 97 | -7 | 0.581 |
| SEA | 58 | 212 | 209 | 255 | 256 | 0.397 | 0.417 | 0.408 | 65 | 7 | 0.436 |
| SFG | 57 | 239 | 248 | 198 | 230 | 0.561 | 0.584 | 0.534 | 88 | -7 | 0.507 |
| STL | 59 | 273 | 282 | 220 | 228 | 0.559 | 0.599 | 0.597 | 94 | -7 | 0.571 |
| TBR | 58 | 308 | 289 | 209 | 226 | 0.655 | 0.674 | 0.613 | 102 | 7 | 0.638 |
| TEX | 58 | 278 | 270 | 261 | 267 | 0.534 | 0.531 | 0.505 | 83 | 7 | 0.530 |
| TOR | 59 | 295 | 276 | 255 | 259 | 0.559 | 0.569 | 0.530 | 88 | 7 | 0.556 |
| WSN | 59 | 253 | 256 | 270 | 273 | 0.475 | 0.470 | 0.469 | 76 | -7 | 0.443 |
G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses and Defenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | xFIPrns | Field | Catch | BABIP |
| ARI | 266 | 255 | 0.324 | 0.326 | 0.424 | 258 | -4 | -2 | 326 | 258 | 5.50 | 5.06 | 4.45 | 269 | 12 | -4 | 0.321 |
| ATL | 292 | 290 | 0.336 | 0.352 | 0.394 | 287 | 3 | -4 | 237 | 247 | 3.81 | 3.91 | 4.10 | 245 | 6 | 1 | 0.293 |
| BAL | 193 | 204 | 0.303 | 0.309 | 0.364 | 206 | -2 | -7 | 305 | 300 | 4.90 | 4.91 | 4.80 | 282 | -24 | 0 | 0.314 |
| BOS | 312 | 323 | 0.351 | 0.350 | 0.461 | 327 | -4 | -5 | 269 | 280 | 4.25 | 4.37 | 4.59 | 290 | 3 | 0 | 0.287 |
| CHW | 230 | 224 | 0.316 | 0.319 | 0.397 | 227 | -3 | 1 | 278 | 256 | 4.85 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 245 | -9 | -2 | 0.322 |
| CHC | 233 | 242 | 0.320 | 0.328 | 0.404 | 246 | -4 | -32 | 245 | 227 | 4.05 | 3.91 | 4.00 | 234 | -4 | 3 | 0.301 |
| CIN | 284 | 301 | 0.343 | 0.345 | 0.453 | 296 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 269 | 4.46 | 4.19 | 4.37 | 266 | -5 | -2 | 0.316 |
| CLE | 230 | 227 | 0.313 | 0.321 | 0.364 | 227 | 0 | -1 | 298 | 296 | 4.72 | 4.76 | 4.90 | 285 | -1 | -1 | 0.310 |
| COL | 249 | 252 | 0.319 | 0.335 | 0.414 | 247 | 4 | -27 | 210 | 254 | 3.63 | 3.66 | 4.12 | 246 | 3 | -1 | 0.298 |
| DET | 251 | 274 | 0.337 | 0.342 | 0.421 | 275 | -1 | 12 | 245 | 258 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.55 | 264 | 5 | -2 | 0.299 |
| FLA | 272 | 268 | 0.326 | 0.327 | 0.402 | 262 | 6 | -16 | 259 | 263 | 4.07 | 3.85 | 4.34 | 261 | -6 | 1 | 0.306 |
| HOU | 195 | 172 | 0.287 | 0.291 | 0.340 | 173 | -1 | 25 | 291 | 264 | 4.48 | 3.93 | 4.17 | 250 | -13 | 1 | 0.330 |
| KCR | 249 | 257 | 0.325 | 0.335 | 0.408 | 257 | 0 | -7 | 285 | 305 | 4.76 | 4.53 | 4.67 | 283 | -36 | 0 | 0.309 |
| LAD | 289 | 282 | 0.332 | 0.335 | 0.408 | 275 | 6 | 13 | 275 | 284 | 3.96 | 3.86 | 4.21 | 259 | -23 | 0 | 0.300 |
| LAA | 288 | 260 | 0.324 | 0.319 | 0.409 | 262 | -2 | 8 | 301 | 296 | 4.53 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 277 | -15 | -2 | 0.316 |
| MIL | 284 | 301 | 0.343 | 0.337 | 0.433 | 301 | 0 | -19 | 329 | 305 | 5.25 | 4.41 | 4.52 | 270 | -42 | -1 | 0.344 |
| MIN | 274 | 286 | 0.339 | 0.347 | 0.414 | 287 | -1 | -14 | 223 | 233 | 3.73 | 3.66 | 4.11 | 246 | 4 | 3 | 0.308 |
| NYY | 329 | 338 | 0.361 | 0.365 | 0.448 | 336 | 2 | -4 | 237 | 236 | 3.86 | 4.23 | 4.20 | 247 | 16 | 1 | 0.282 |
| NYM | 264 | 263 | 0.326 | 0.327 | 0.396 | 258 | 5 | -14 | 242 | 265 | 3.87 | 4.19 | 4.47 | 270 | -3 | 1 | 0.309 |
| OAK | 251 | 253 | 0.323 | 0.324 | 0.387 | 256 | -3 | 6 | 258 | 260 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.30 | 265 | 3 | 1 | 0.287 |
| PHI | 255 | 248 | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.414 | 254 | -6 | 3 | 219 | 233 | 3.72 | 4.13 | 4.21 | 245 | 14 | 3 | 0.289 |
| PIT | 191 | 199 | 0.303 | 0.305 | 0.363 | 204 | -5 | 15 | 328 | 297 | 5.26 | 4.76 | 4.68 | 276 | -22 | -1 | 0.320 |
| SDP | 267 | 256 | 0.323 | 0.322 | 0.366 | 255 | 1 | -19 | 209 | 200 | 3.03 | 3.56 | 3.74 | 229 | 25 | 3 | 0.280 |
| SEA | 212 | 209 | 0.305 | 0.314 | 0.347 | 210 | -1 | 10 | 255 | 256 | 3.95 | 4.09 | 4.49 | 268 | 19 | -1 | 0.291 |
| SFG | 239 | 248 | 0.322 | 0.328 | 0.399 | 245 | 3 | 3 | 198 | 230 | 3.25 | 3.78 | 4.34 | 259 | 31 | -1 | 0.270 |
| STL | 273 | 282 | 0.335 | 0.340 | 0.411 | 285 | -2 | -17 | 220 | 228 | 3.10 | 3.62 | 3.91 | 241 | 15 | 3 | 0.289 |
| TBR | 308 | 289 | 0.336 | 0.337 | 0.411 | 284 | 5 | 4 | 209 | 226 | 3.26 | 4.06 | 4.15 | 251 | 32 | 0 | 0.276 |
| TEX | 278 | 270 | 0.328 | 0.336 | 0.414 | 263 | 7 | 9 | 261 | 267 | 4.20 | 4.53 | 4.57 | 276 | 6 | 0 | 0.292 |
| TOR | 295 | 276 | 0.336 | 0.309 | 0.465 | 278 | -2 | 19 | 255 | 259 | 4.17 | 3.70 | 4.06 | 248 | -1 | -3 | 0.302 |
| WSN | 253 | 256 | 0.327 | 0.334 | 0.408 | 262 | -6 | -2 | 270 | 273 | 4.13 | 4.49 | 4.63 | 280 | 0 | 2 | 0.297 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.