Week 5 on Cinco de Mayo. Here we go!
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"On Paper" Playoff Leaders
American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins, W=Athletics, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals*, W=Padres, WC=Cubs*
This Week's Breakdown: The San Diego Padres
Converting Runs to Wins
Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | LgAdj | TPI |
ARI | 27 | 145 | 141 | 147 | 120 | 0.481 | 0.494 | 0.577 | -3 | 0.552 |
ATL | 26 | 106 | 104 | 112 | 114 | 0.423 | 0.474 | 0.458 | -3 | 0.431 |
BAL | 27 | 92 | 100 | 137 | 139 | 0.259 | 0.324 | 0.353 | 3 | 0.378 |
BOS | 27 | 132 | 143 | 139 | 134 | 0.481 | 0.476 | 0.529 | 3 | 0.553 |
CHW | 27 | 106 | 104 | 133 | 127 | 0.407 | 0.395 | 0.408 | 3 | 0.435 |
CHC | 27 | 126 | 137 | 115 | 104 | 0.481 | 0.541 | 0.625 | -3 | 0.600 |
CIN | 27 | 112 | 105 | 139 | 121 | 0.481 | 0.396 | 0.436 | -3 | 0.408 |
CLE | 26 | 93 | 100 | 132 | 130 | 0.385 | 0.343 | 0.377 | 3 | 0.402 |
COL | 27 | 123 | 121 | 99 | 121 | 0.481 | 0.598 | 0.502 | -3 | 0.477 |
DET | 28 | 134 | 149 | 129 | 123 | 0.571 | 0.518 | 0.591 | 3 | 0.614 |
FLA | 26 | 130 | 124 | 124 | 121 | 0.500 | 0.523 | 0.515 | -3 | 0.489 |
HOU | 26 | 74 | 67 | 127 | 116 | 0.308 | 0.273 | 0.272 | -3 | 0.246 |
KCR | 27 | 108 | 118 | 135 | 156 | 0.407 | 0.396 | 0.372 | 3 | 0.394 |
LAD | 26 | 141 | 139 | 148 | 146 | 0.423 | 0.475 | 0.474 | -3 | 0.452 |
LAA | 28 | 112 | 110 | 154 | 142 | 0.429 | 0.354 | 0.382 | 3 | 0.408 |
MIL | 26 | 140 | 153 | 145 | 130 | 0.423 | 0.482 | 0.580 | -3 | 0.557 |
MIN | 27 | 144 | 153 | 102 | 108 | 0.667 | 0.657 | 0.659 | 3 | 0.682 |
NYY | 26 | 145 | 151 | 92 | 116 | 0.692 | 0.704 | 0.622 | 3 | 0.644 |
NYM | 27 | 119 | 114 | 103 | 129 | 0.556 | 0.567 | 0.444 | -3 | 0.419 |
OAK | 28 | 124 | 113 | 123 | 120 | 0.500 | 0.504 | 0.475 | 3 | 0.503 |
PHI | 26 | 137 | 126 | 108 | 104 | 0.577 | 0.612 | 0.590 | -3 | 0.564 |
PIT | 26 | 90 | 99 | 179 | 142 | 0.423 | 0.207 | 0.328 | -3 | 0.304 |
SDP | 27 | 132 | 128 | 95 | 92 | 0.630 | 0.649 | 0.644 | -3 | 0.617 |
SEA | 26 | 90 | 83 | 97 | 110 | 0.423 | 0.466 | 0.376 | 3 | 0.405 |
SFG | 25 | 117 | 122 | 76 | 94 | 0.600 | 0.685 | 0.618 | -3 | 0.593 |
STL | 27 | 128 | 134 | 84 | 100 | 0.667 | 0.683 | 0.629 | -3 | 0.604 |
TBR | 26 | 154 | 129 | 83 | 103 | 0.731 | 0.762 | 0.607 | 3 | 0.633 |
TEX | 27 | 119 | 106 | 110 | 126 | 0.519 | 0.536 | 0.422 | 3 | 0.448 |
TOR | 28 | 135 | 130 | 121 | 110 | 0.536 | 0.551 | 0.578 | 3 | 0.604 |
WSN | 26 | 109 | 112 | 126 | 131 | 0.538 | 0.433 | 0.426 | -3 | 0.401 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses & Defenses
Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | xFIPrns | Field | Catch | BABIP |
ARI | 145 | 141 | 0.348 | 0.348 | 0.469 | 142 | -2 | 9 | 147 | 120 | 5.50 | 5.01 | 4.49 | 126 | 7 | -3 | 0.319 |
ATL | 106 | 104 | 0.315 | 0.336 | 0.353 | 104 | 0 | -13 | 112 | 114 | 4.07 | 4.00 | 4.23 | 112 | 1 | 1 | 0.285 |
BAL | 92 | 100 | 0.306 | 0.307 | 0.385 | 100 | 0 | -7 | 137 | 139 | 4.58 | 4.57 | 4.68 | 130 | -14 | 3 | 0.313 |
BOS | 132 | 143 | 0.348 | 0.345 | 0.461 | 144 | -1 | -9 | 139 | 134 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.53 | 132 | -4 | -2 | 0.307 |
CHW | 106 | 104 | 0.313 | 0.311 | 0.396 | 104 | 0 | -2 | 133 | 127 | 4.84 | 4.08 | 4.33 | 122 | -3 | 1 | 0.305 |
CHC | 126 | 137 | 0.345 | 0.350 | 0.445 | 138 | -1 | -27 | 115 | 104 | 3.95 | 3.75 | 3.84 | 107 | -6 | 2 | 0.311 |
CIN | 112 | 105 | 0.307 | 0.314 | 0.384 | 102 | 3 | 21 | 139 | 121 | 5.24 | 4.36 | 4.23 | 120 | 3 | 0 | 0.325 |
CLE | 93 | 100 | 0.310 | 0.326 | 0.353 | 100 | 0 | 3 | 132 | 130 | 4.38 | 4.99 | 4.93 | 134 | 10 | -2 | 0.290 |
COL | 123 | 121 | 0.324 | 0.337 | 0.422 | 119 | 3 | -13 | 99 | 121 | 3.75 | 3.96 | 4.37 | 124 | 6 | 1 | 0.293 |
DET | 134 | 149 | 0.349 | 0.359 | 0.432 | 150 | -1 | 21 | 129 | 123 | 4.29 | 3.94 | 4.27 | 123 | -7 | -1 | 0.312 |
FLA | 130 | 124 | 0.328 | 0.333 | 0.405 | 119 | 5 | 5 | 124 | 121 | 4.33 | 3.83 | 4.12 | 114 | -12 | 1 | 0.306 |
HOU | 74 | 67 | 0.276 | 0.283 | 0.322 | 66 | 1 | 3 | 127 | 116 | 4.28 | 3.83 | 4.17 | 112 | -3 | 2 | 0.321 |
KCR | 108 | 118 | 0.328 | 0.331 | 0.417 | 122 | -4 | -4 | 135 | 156 | 4.81 | 4.63 | 4.91 | 141 | -23 | -1 | 0.311 |
LAD | 141 | 139 | 0.346 | 0.345 | 0.440 | 139 | 0 | -1 | 148 | 146 | 4.86 | 4.38 | 4.57 | 125 | -20 | -4 | 0.314 |
LAA | 112 | 110 | 0.321 | 0.321 | 0.398 | 114 | -4 | -4 | 154 | 142 | 5.25 | 4.85 | 4.46 | 129 | -12 | -3 | 0.322 |
MIL | 140 | 153 | 0.359 | 0.356 | 0.449 | 155 | -1 | -13 | 145 | 130 | 5.12 | 4.65 | 4.15 | 113 | -18 | -2 | 0.332 |
MIN | 144 | 153 | 0.356 | 0.364 | 0.440 | 154 | -1 | -7 | 102 | 108 | 3.64 | 3.60 | 4.03 | 116 | 2 | 4 | 0.312 |
NYY | 145 | 151 | 0.364 | 0.362 | 0.455 | 151 | 1 | 4 | 92 | 116 | 3.38 | 4.02 | 4.30 | 114 | 2 | -2 | 0.264 |
NYM | 119 | 114 | 0.315 | 0.315 | 0.376 | 109 | 5 | -4 | 103 | 129 | 3.49 | 4.09 | 4.46 | 130 | -3 | 1 | 0.299 |
OAK | 124 | 113 | 0.316 | 0.320 | 0.371 | 112 | 1 | 3 | 123 | 120 | 4.11 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 0.291 |
PHI | 137 | 126 | 0.336 | 0.339 | 0.438 | 127 | -2 | 16 | 108 | 104 | 4.11 | 4.31 | 3.98 | 108 | 4 | 1 | 0.306 |
PIT | 90 | 99 | 0.309 | 0.310 | 0.367 | 100 | -1 | 16 | 179 | 142 | 6.60 | 5.33 | 4.75 | 128 | -10 | -2 | 0.331 |
SDP | 132 | 128 | 0.336 | 0.331 | 0.385 | 127 | 0 | 3 | 95 | 92 | 2.89 | 3.68 | 3.82 | 109 | 12 | 4 | 0.280 |
SEA | 90 | 83 | 0.295 | 0.309 | 0.327 | 85 | -2 | 10 | 97 | 110 | 3.28 | 4.07 | 4.47 | 123 | 23 | -4 | 0.278 |
SFG | 117 | 122 | 0.338 | 0.344 | 0.428 | 122 | 0 | -2 | 76 | 94 | 2.82 | 3.33 | 3.82 | 103 | 9 | -2 | 0.268 |
STL | 128 | 134 | 0.337 | 0.340 | 0.430 | 134 | 0 | 3 | 84 | 100 | 2.56 | 3.35 | 3.94 | 115 | 12 | 3 | 0.268 |
TBR | 154 | 129 | 0.340 | 0.341 | 0.426 | 129 | 0 | 7 | 83 | 103 | 2.97 | 4.03 | 4.14 | 116 | 14 | 0 | 0.263 |
TEX | 119 | 106 | 0.307 | 0.317 | 0.369 | 101 | 5 | 17 | 110 | 126 | 3.57 | 4.47 | 4.66 | 134 | 6 | 0 | 0.282 |
TOR | 135 | 130 | 0.335 | 0.310 | 0.458 | 131 | -1 | 2 | 121 | 110 | 4.17 | 3.67 | 3.87 | 114 | 10 | 0 | 0.298 |
WSN | 109 | 112 | 0.327 | 0.331 | 0.410 | 115 | -3 | 5 | 126 | 131 | 4.71 | 4.89 | 4.93 | 136 | 2 | 1 | 0.296 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.