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GotD: Does Run Environment Affect the Number of One-Run Games?


This arose from a discussion at Red Reporter.  The Reds are experiencing a lot of wear on the elite guys in their bullpen, and part of the reason is they've had a lot of close games.  I wanted to see whether teams that are pitching and fielding focused--don't score much, but don't allow many runs either--tended to experience more 1-run games than teams that are more offense-focused (score a lot, but also allow a lot of runs).

It does look like there's a relationship here.  It's not a particularly strong effect, but it's significant: generally, if you have lower run environments, you'll likely have more 1-run games.  This shouldn't be surprising--more runs means greater chance to a large spread of score--but it was nice to see the data.

...And, on an tangential note, how about the 2008 Texas Rangers, eh?  They experienced 11.6 runs per game!  I know there's a decent park factor there, but holy cow!