"On Paper" playoff leaders
American League: E=Yankees C=Twins W=Rangers* WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies C=Cardinals W=Padres WC=Giants
This Week's Feature: Extrapolated Wins (xtW)
Rather than feature a team this week, I'm featuring a new feature. Above you can see a new column in the power rankings called "xtW." This stands for extrapolated wins, which are essentially what Dan published last year in his poor man's season projections.
They are calculated by taking a team's current wins and adding to it the expected wins if a team adheres to its component winning percentage (cW%) the rest of the season. They do NOT involve league adjustments like the TPI number does.
As a nice example, look at the Rays and the Red Sox above. They have similar cW%'s (and TPI's), and as a result would be expected (under this simple model) to win similar numbers of games from this point forward, with a slight bias in the Rays favor. Nevertheless, because the Red Sox have such a large shortfall in wins to date this season compared to the Rays, they are projected to win only 88 games compared to the Rays' 99 wins.
I think this is a fun little feature, but please take it for what it is. It assumes that, over the rest of the season, teams will perform just as well as they have to date based on their component stats. That's not likely to happen, and most teams will regress significantly toward the mean. This is why the extrapolated wins currently have eight teams winning over 90 games, and six teams winning less than 70. Some of those teams probably will stay about where they are, but odds are many of them will end up with weaker (or better) performances than they've received to date, and thus will end up with win totals in the typical 70-90 range.
Nevertheless, if you are interested in a team that has apparently played better than their record indicates thus far, this may give you an indication of how much ground they can reasonably expect to make up over the rest of the season.
Hope you enjoy the new feature.
Converting Runs to Wins
| Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | LgAdj | TPI |
| ARI | 40 | 188 | 182 | 230 | 173 | 0.400 | 0.401 | 0.523 | -5 | 0.496 |
| ATL | 39 | 176 | 173 | 164 | 173 | 0.487 | 0.533 | 0.502 | -5 | 0.476 |
| BAL | 40 | 137 | 151 | 192 | 200 | 0.325 | 0.350 | 0.375 | 5 | 0.400 |
| BOS | 40 | 204 | 214 | 212 | 189 | 0.500 | 0.482 | 0.559 | 5 | 0.583 |
| CHW | 38 | 153 | 146 | 177 | 175 | 0.421 | 0.435 | 0.417 | 5 | 0.444 |
| CHC | 40 | 177 | 188 | 185 | 167 | 0.450 | 0.480 | 0.557 | -5 | 0.531 |
| CIN | 39 | 181 | 178 | 178 | 169 | 0.590 | 0.508 | 0.527 | -5 | 0.501 |
| CLE | 37 | 144 | 155 | 177 | 184 | 0.405 | 0.406 | 0.420 | 5 | 0.445 |
| COL | 39 | 169 | 175 | 150 | 179 | 0.487 | 0.555 | 0.492 | -5 | 0.467 |
| DET | 39 | 176 | 193 | 176 | 180 | 0.564 | 0.500 | 0.532 | 5 | 0.556 |
| FLA | 40 | 191 | 182 | 173 | 167 | 0.525 | 0.547 | 0.541 | -5 | 0.514 |
| HOU | 39 | 116 | 98 | 185 | 169 | 0.333 | 0.303 | 0.273 | -5 | 0.245 |
| KCR | 40 | 157 | 170 | 200 | 221 | 0.375 | 0.389 | 0.378 | 5 | 0.401 |
| LAD | 39 | 209 | 202 | 195 | 195 | 0.564 | 0.535 | 0.516 | -5 | 0.492 |
| LAA | 41 | 173 | 160 | 209 | 205 | 0.439 | 0.410 | 0.383 | 5 | 0.408 |
| MIL | 39 | 208 | 222 | 224 | 202 | 0.385 | 0.463 | 0.547 | -5 | 0.525 |
| MIN | 39 | 190 | 205 | 155 | 158 | 0.615 | 0.594 | 0.618 | 5 | 0.642 |
| NYY | 39 | 227 | 233 | 153 | 159 | 0.641 | 0.683 | 0.674 | 5 | 0.696 |
| NYM | 40 | 176 | 173 | 169 | 188 | 0.475 | 0.516 | 0.462 | -5 | 0.436 |
| OAK | 40 | 164 | 161 | 179 | 178 | 0.500 | 0.461 | 0.454 | 5 | 0.481 |
| PHI | 38 | 207 | 198 | 142 | 158 | 0.632 | 0.671 | 0.605 | -5 | 0.581 |
| PIT | 39 | 136 | 135 | 239 | 207 | 0.436 | 0.254 | 0.307 | -5 | 0.283 |
| SDP | 39 | 175 | 165 | 130 | 133 | 0.590 | 0.631 | 0.594 | -5 | 0.565 |
| SEA | 39 | 133 | 130 | 161 | 166 | 0.359 | 0.414 | 0.393 | 5 | 0.421 |
| SFG | 38 | 166 | 175 | 121 | 151 | 0.579 | 0.638 | 0.566 | -5 | 0.540 |
| STL | 40 | 174 | 180 | 142 | 150 | 0.575 | 0.591 | 0.580 | -5 | 0.553 |
| TBR | 39 | 209 | 182 | 117 | 154 | 0.718 | 0.744 | 0.576 | 5 | 0.602 |
| TEX | 40 | 186 | 181 | 177 | 183 | 0.550 | 0.523 | 0.495 | 5 | 0.521 |
| TOR | 41 | 212 | 199 | 180 | 177 | 0.585 | 0.578 | 0.555 | 5 | 0.581 |
| WSN | 40 | 166 | 173 | 185 | 187 | 0.500 | 0.450 | 0.465 | -5 | 0.439 |
G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses and Defenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | xFIPrns | Field | Catch | BABIP |
| ARI | 188 | 182 | 0.330 | 0.333 | 0.431 | 185 | -3 | 1 | 230 | 173 | 5.75 | 5.07 | 4.49 | 185 | 10 | -1 | 0.324 |
| ATL | 176 | 173 | 0.326 | 0.342 | 0.379 | 174 | 0 | -10 | 164 | 173 | 3.99 | 3.98 | 4.12 | 164 | -6 | 0 | 0.287 |
| BAL | 137 | 151 | 0.310 | 0.309 | 0.387 | 152 | -1 | -4 | 192 | 200 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 4.66 | 191 | -10 | 1 | 0.308 |
| BOS | 204 | 214 | 0.349 | 0.350 | 0.454 | 216 | -2 | -4 | 212 | 189 | 4.94 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 0.302 |
| CHW | 153 | 146 | 0.311 | 0.313 | 0.385 | 147 | 0 | 2 | 177 | 175 | 4.57 | 4.03 | 4.26 | 169 | -4 | 0 | 0.306 |
| CHC | 177 | 188 | 0.334 | 0.341 | 0.422 | 190 | -2 | -27 | 185 | 167 | 4.35 | 3.82 | 3.93 | 161 | -16 | 1 | 0.315 |
| CIN | 181 | 178 | 0.328 | 0.332 | 0.427 | 176 | 3 | 23 | 178 | 169 | 4.64 | 4.25 | 4.17 | 171 | 8 | -1 | 0.308 |
| CLE | 144 | 155 | 0.318 | 0.333 | 0.363 | 155 | 0 | 3 | 177 | 184 | 4.17 | 4.63 | 4.76 | 183 | 4 | 0 | 0.301 |
| COL | 169 | 175 | 0.322 | 0.339 | 0.415 | 171 | 4 | -14 | 150 | 179 | 3.92 | 3.81 | 4.22 | 173 | 0 | -1 | 0.299 |
| DET | 176 | 193 | 0.339 | 0.349 | 0.415 | 194 | -1 | 25 | 176 | 180 | 4.22 | 4.02 | 4.49 | 182 | -5 | -1 | 0.303 |
| FLA | 191 | 182 | 0.325 | 0.328 | 0.398 | 177 | 5 | 2 | 173 | 167 | 3.90 | 3.67 | 4.08 | 170 | 4 | 1 | 0.300 |
| HOU | 116 | 98 | 0.273 | 0.273 | 0.321 | 95 | 3 | 11 | 185 | 169 | 4.20 | 3.68 | 4.03 | 161 | -3 | 1 | 0.321 |
| KCR | 157 | 170 | 0.322 | 0.327 | 0.401 | 172 | -2 | -2 | 200 | 221 | 4.89 | 4.71 | 4.93 | 205 | -22 | 0 | 0.308 |
| LAD | 209 | 202 | 0.342 | 0.345 | 0.425 | 200 | 2 | 16 | 195 | 195 | 4.31 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 171 | -21 | -1 | 0.307 |
| LAA | 173 | 160 | 0.317 | 0.311 | 0.396 | 164 | -4 | -8 | 209 | 205 | 4.72 | 4.67 | 4.45 | 187 | -10 | -3 | 0.318 |
| MIL | 208 | 222 | 0.355 | 0.350 | 0.451 | 224 | -2 | -31 | 224 | 202 | 5.28 | 4.74 | 4.42 | 179 | -26 | -2 | 0.336 |
| MIN | 190 | 205 | 0.348 | 0.356 | 0.426 | 207 | -2 | -5 | 155 | 158 | 3.91 | 3.75 | 4.05 | 165 | 1 | 2 | 0.314 |
| NYY | 227 | 233 | 0.364 | 0.365 | 0.453 | 230 | 2 | 4 | 153 | 159 | 3.69 | 4.27 | 4.24 | 168 | 9 | 0 | 0.275 |
| NYM | 176 | 173 | 0.319 | 0.319 | 0.381 | 168 | 5 | -6 | 169 | 188 | 3.86 | 4.35 | 4.45 | 188 | -7 | 0 | 0.307 |
| OAK | 164 | 161 | 0.315 | 0.319 | 0.371 | 161 | 0 | 10 | 179 | 178 | 4.14 | 4.25 | 4.28 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 0.285 |
| PHI | 207 | 198 | 0.347 | 0.347 | 0.459 | 201 | -3 | 13 | 142 | 158 | 3.65 | 4.22 | 4.08 | 162 | 4 | 2 | 0.293 |
| PIT | 136 | 135 | 0.301 | 0.304 | 0.354 | 137 | -2 | 18 | 239 | 207 | 5.68 | 4.74 | 4.63 | 186 | -24 | -1 | 0.326 |
| SDP | 175 | 165 | 0.319 | 0.321 | 0.352 | 164 | 1 | -2 | 130 | 133 | 2.74 | 3.53 | 3.80 | 158 | 26 | 2 | 0.268 |
| SEA | 133 | 130 | 0.300 | 0.309 | 0.339 | 135 | -5 | 2 | 161 | 166 | 3.76 | 4.03 | 4.37 | 177 | 18 | -1 | 0.291 |
| SFG | 166 | 175 | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.402 | 171 | 4 | -2 | 121 | 151 | 3.01 | 3.57 | 4.16 | 170 | 18 | -1 | 0.272 |
| STL | 174 | 180 | 0.328 | 0.334 | 0.404 | 182 | -3 | 2 | 142 | 150 | 2.81 | 3.50 | 3.89 | 164 | 14 | 2 | 0.286 |
| TBR | 209 | 182 | 0.328 | 0.329 | 0.399 | 178 | 5 | 10 | 117 | 154 | 2.69 | 3.73 | 4.06 | 169 | 18 | 0 | 0.268 |
| TEX | 186 | 181 | 0.322 | 0.333 | 0.396 | 174 | 8 | 13 | 177 | 183 | 4.08 | 4.61 | 4.55 | 194 | 9 | 1 | 0.282 |
| TOR | 212 | 199 | 0.340 | 0.314 | 0.466 | 201 | -2 | 18 | 180 | 177 | 4.22 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 174 | 2 | -3 | 0.297 |
| WSN | 166 | 173 | 0.328 | 0.331 | 0.417 | 178 | -5 | -3 | 185 | 187 | 4.51 | 4.69 | 4.78 | 198 | 12 | 2 | 0.294 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.