"On Paper" Playoff Leaders
American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins*, W=Angels*, WC=Blue Jays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Padres*, WC=Giants*
This Week's Breakdown
First, a technical note: the reason that so many of the Team Performance Indices (TPI's) are pointing down is that I made several tweaks and adjustments (and one bug fix) that forced TPI to be very close to 0.500, as it should be.
In any case, let's turn our attention this week to the newest top-ranked team on the list, the Minnesota Twins. The Twins already ranked fourth last week, and their continued excellence this past week pushed them to the top of the list--and by a significant margin (73 points!). There's no reality vs. statistics disparity here, either: our component winning percentage (cW%) estimate of their performance thus far is almost exactly the same as their true winning percentage (W%): 0.708 cW% vs. 0.714 W%.
The Twins so far have been all about offense and fielding, with solid pitching thrown in for good measure. They rank second in the AL in park-adjusted wOBA (0.350; MLB average OBP is just 0.327). Naturally, leading the way are Joe Mauer (0.407 wOBA) and Justin Morneau (0.447 wOBA), with strong complementary performances from Michael Cuddyer (0.362), Orlando Hudson (0.357), and Denard Span (0.340). These players have also combined to give the Twins the best-rated fielding in baseball so far at +17 runs.
Pitching-wise, their staff ranks as 6th in xFIP (4.03) and 5th in FIP (3.84). Carl Pavano (3.33 xFIP, despite the ERA) and Kevin Slowey (3.70 xFIP) are off to nice starts, and Francisco Liriano (4.09 xFIP) has been encouraging. More impressive, however, have been the performances of the bullpen. Seemingly spurred by the loss of Joe Nathan, four of their relievers have yet to allow a run, while new closer Jon Rauch sports a sparkly 1.50 ERA and 2.18 FIP (...and 4.46 xFIP).
The Twins seemed to be the consensus favorite to win the AL Central, and they're off to a fine start. We'll track their progress as the season continues on--but for now, the Twins reign as the best-performing team in baseball.
Runs to Wins
| Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | LgAdj | TPI |
| ARI | 14 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 62 | 0.429 | 0.519 | 0.561 | -2 | 0.535 |
| ATL | 13 | 65 | 58 | 58 | 59 | 0.615 | 0.555 | 0.489 | -2 | 0.463 |
| BAL | 15 | 45 | 48 | 77 | 70 | 0.133 | 0.273 | 0.332 | 2 | 0.358 |
| BOS | 14 | 55 | 64 | 73 | 82 | 0.357 | 0.373 | 0.387 | 2 | 0.409 |
| CHW | 14 | 55 | 53 | 54 | 62 | 0.357 | 0.508 | 0.436 | 2 | 0.464 |
| CHC | 14 | 51 | 56 | 65 | 56 | 0.357 | 0.388 | 0.498 | -2 | 0.470 |
| CIN | 14 | 62 | 51 | 75 | 68 | 0.429 | 0.406 | 0.364 | -2 | 0.338 |
| CLE | 13 | 47 | 43 | 56 | 60 | 0.462 | 0.420 | 0.350 | 2 | 0.377 |
| COL | 14 | 65 | 64 | 53 | 65 | 0.500 | 0.593 | 0.494 | -2 | 0.470 |
| DET | 14 | 62 | 74 | 68 | 74 | 0.500 | 0.457 | 0.501 | 2 | 0.523 |
| FLA | 14 | 74 | 70 | 70 | 74 | 0.571 | 0.527 | 0.469 | -2 | 0.446 |
| HOU | 13 | 35 | 22 | 63 | 59 | 0.308 | 0.265 | 0.149 | -2 | 0.128 |
| KCR | 14 | 65 | 74 | 81 | 79 | 0.357 | 0.397 | 0.467 | 2 | 0.490 |
| LAD | 13 | 81 | 86 | 84 | 72 | 0.462 | 0.487 | 0.589 | -2 | 0.568 |
| LAA | 15 | 61 | 64 | 75 | 62 | 0.533 | 0.403 | 0.509 | 2 | 0.537 |
| MIL | 13 | 70 | 70 | 77 | 62 | 0.462 | 0.452 | 0.562 | -2 | 0.538 |
| MIN | 14 | 74 | 77 | 48 | 48 | 0.714 | 0.691 | 0.708 | 2 | 0.731 |
| NYY | 13 | 77 | 84 | 47 | 62 | 0.769 | 0.715 | 0.637 | 2 | 0.657 |
| NYM | 14 | 59 | 58 | 51 | 72 | 0.429 | 0.567 | 0.404 | -2 | 0.381 |
| OAK | 15 | 66 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 0.600 | 0.584 | 0.503 | 2 | 0.531 |
| PHI | 13 | 79 | 78 | 51 | 53 | 0.615 | 0.695 | 0.680 | -2 | 0.658 |
| PIT | 13 | 55 | 56 | 84 | 64 | 0.538 | 0.300 | 0.430 | -2 | 0.404 |
| SDP | 14 | 65 | 66 | 56 | 47 | 0.571 | 0.567 | 0.648 | -2 | 0.621 |
| SEA | 15 | 57 | 56 | 54 | 67 | 0.533 | 0.524 | 0.422 | 2 | 0.449 |
| SFG | 14 | 71 | 71 | 45 | 57 | 0.571 | 0.698 | 0.602 | -2 | 0.577 |
| STL | 14 | 68 | 69 | 51 | 56 | 0.643 | 0.634 | 0.598 | -2 | 0.572 |
| TBR | 14 | 72 | 62 | 53 | 60 | 0.714 | 0.642 | 0.516 | 2 | 0.543 |
| TEX | 13 | 51 | 49 | 52 | 64 | 0.385 | 0.491 | 0.379 | 2 | 0.404 |
| TOR | 15 | 69 | 69 | 62 | 58 | 0.600 | 0.550 | 0.579 | 2 | 0.605 |
| WSN | 14 | 68 | 74 | 88 | 75 | 0.500 | 0.375 | 0.497 | -2 | 0.473 |
G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses and Defenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | xFIPrns | Fld | Catch | BABIP |
| ARI | 73 | 70 | 0.338 | 0.346 | 0.442 | 70 | 0 | 5 | 70 | 62 | 5.04 | 4.97 | 4.32 | 64 | 2 | -2 | 0.313 |
| ATL | 65 | 58 | 0.320 | 0.338 | 0.369 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 58 | 59 | 3.84 | 3.91 | 4.04 | 57 | -4 | 2 | 0.273 |
| BAL | 45 | 48 | 0.290 | 0.286 | 0.365 | 48 | 0 | -7 | 77 | 70 | 4.51 | 3.79 | 4.26 | 65 | -7 | 2 | 0.341 |
| BOS | 55 | 64 | 0.327 | 0.323 | 0.438 | 64 | 0 | -7 | 73 | 82 | 4.68 | 4.90 | 5.02 | 76 | -8 | -5 | 0.285 |
| CHW | 55 | 53 | 0.308 | 0.308 | 0.389 | 53 | 0 | -7 | 54 | 62 | 3.69 | 3.44 | 3.98 | 60 | 2 | 1 | 0.292 |
| CHC | 51 | 56 | 0.315 | 0.317 | 0.397 | 56 | 0 | -6 | 65 | 56 | 4.39 | 3.67 | 3.88 | 55 | -1 | 2 | 0.317 |
| CIN | 62 | 51 | 0.302 | 0.300 | 0.397 | 51 | 0 | 11 | 75 | 68 | 5.53 | 4.62 | 4.52 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 0.315 |
| CLE | 47 | 43 | 0.294 | 0.303 | 0.338 | 43 | 0 | 10 | 56 | 60 | 3.58 | 4.52 | 4.80 | 66 | 10 | -1 | 0.261 |
| COL | 65 | 64 | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.451 | 64 | 0 | -14 | 53 | 65 | 3.81 | 3.91 | 4.27 | 64 | -2 | 0 | 0.302 |
| DET | 62 | 74 | 0.342 | 0.368 | 0.405 | 74 | 0 | 8 | 68 | 74 | 4.39 | 4.25 | 4.66 | 68 | -11 | -2 | 0.312 |
| FLA | 74 | 70 | 0.335 | 0.333 | 0.419 | 70 | 0 | 6 | 70 | 74 | 4.39 | 4.16 | 4.53 | 68 | -8 | 0 | 0.288 |
| HOU | 35 | 22 | 0.248 | 0.249 | 0.299 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 63 | 59 | 4.62 | 3.69 | 4.03 | 55 | -3 | 1 | 0.330 |
| KCR | 65 | 74 | 0.348 | 0.348 | 0.442 | 74 | 0 | 2 | 81 | 79 | 5.63 | 5.18 | 5.15 | 75 | -7 | 0 | 0.320 |
| LAD | 81 | 86 | 0.372 | 0.377 | 0.473 | 86 | 0 | 2 | 84 | 72 | 5.48 | 4.68 | 4.60 | 64 | -4 | -2 | 0.318 |
| LAA | 61 | 64 | 0.322 | 0.321 | 0.404 | 64 | 0 | -5 | 75 | 62 | 4.53 | 4.66 | 3.99 | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0.288 |
| MIL | 70 | 70 | 0.349 | 0.347 | 0.431 | 70 | 0 | 5 | 77 | 62 | 5.65 | 4.80 | 4.09 | 55 | -7 | -1 | 0.329 |
| MIN | 74 | 77 | 0.350 | 0.365 | 0.428 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 48 | 3.43 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 0.287 |
| NYY | 77 | 84 | 0.380 | 0.384 | 0.469 | 84 | 0 | 4 | 47 | 62 | 3.58 | 3.69 | 4.02 | 54 | -8 | -2 | 0.286 |
| NYM | 59 | 58 | 0.308 | 0.324 | 0.348 | 58 | 0 | -10 | 51 | 72 | 3.27 | 3.98 | 4.55 | 73 | -3 | 2 | 0.287 |
| OAK | 66 | 60 | 0.316 | 0.323 | 0.369 | 60 | 0 | 6 | 55 | 60 | 3.17 | 3.55 | 3.93 | 62 | 5 | 1 | 0.283 |
| PHI | 79 | 78 | 0.360 | 0.370 | 0.474 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 51 | 53 | 3.88 | 3.96 | 3.78 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0.297 |
| PIT | 55 | 56 | 0.319 | 0.326 | 0.369 | 56 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 64 | 6.39 | 5.01 | 4.72 | 64 | 0 | -1 | 0.306 |
| SDP | 65 | 66 | 0.331 | 0.325 | 0.382 | 66 | 0 | 5 | 56 | 47 | 3.02 | 3.79 | 3.66 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 0.272 |
| SEA | 57 | 56 | 0.309 | 0.327 | 0.350 | 56 | 0 | 5 | 54 | 67 | 3.41 | 4.00 | 4.69 | 73 | 12 | -2 | 0.280 |
| SFG | 71 | 71 | 0.340 | 0.346 | 0.433 | 71 | 0 | -9 | 45 | 57 | 2.98 | 3.44 | 3.93 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 0.268 |
| STL | 68 | 69 | 0.330 | 0.327 | 0.420 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 56 | 2.87 | 3.49 | 3.95 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 0.273 |
| TBR | 72 | 62 | 0.324 | 0.311 | 0.417 | 62 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 60 | 3.56 | 4.72 | 4.59 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 0.258 |
| TEX | 51 | 49 | 0.308 | 0.311 | 0.369 | 49 | 0 | 6 | 52 | 64 | 3.71 | 4.80 | 4.83 | 64 | -1 | -1 | 0.294 |
| TOR | 69 | 69 | 0.331 | 0.308 | 0.452 | 69 | 0 | 4 | 62 | 58 | 3.83 | 3.97 | 3.93 | 63 | 11 | -1 | 0.268 |
| WSN | 68 | 74 | 0.349 | 0.361 | 0.431 | 74 | 0 | 13 | 88 | 75 | 6.29 | 5.38 | 5.16 | 75 | -3 | 0 | 0.307 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, and E's. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.