Wins Above MVP Level

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn't just a raw counting stat. The whole "replacement level" part of it also ensures that any junk numbers recorded that were below replacement level are ignored. Sean Smith recently introduced Wins Above Excellence—a way to add an additional baseline to WAR that removes any seasons with less than 3.0 WAR. The goal is to quantify only those seasons that separated a player from the pack.

I wonder if 3.0 is too low of a baseline, though. I mean, 2.0 WAR is generally considered league average. Shouldn't "excellence" start somewhere around 4.0 wins? I've used both (calling them WAE3 and WAE4) in a series of blog posts. I've also added WAE6 as a way to see how often that player achieved a truly special season. My reasoning was that around 6.0 WAR you're generally starting to talk about MVP-level performances. So, in essence, this was Wins Above MVP Level.

WAMVP? Sure, that rolls off the tongue.

Then I started wondering if 6.0 was the right baseline for WAMVP. Wouldn't the best approach be to gather the WAR for all MVP winners and find the average? So that's what I did. (Data, of course, from Rally's WAR database.)

* denotes the player is a pitcher

So, let's take a look at some averages:

Wow, so the average WAR for all MVP winners thoughout the history of the National League is 7.62. The average for all MVP winners in American League history also happens to be 7.62. My quick math tells me the average of the two of those is 7.62.

A few notes of interest from this table:

• The NL was way ahead of the AL this decade. Two main reasons: Albert Pujols (3 MVPs at 8.2, 9.6, and 9.2) and Barry Bonds (4 MVPs at—get this—12.5, 12.2, 10.3, and 12.4). The AL had some low-WAR selections this decade in Justin Morneau (3.8 in 2006), Miguel Tejada (5.2 in 2002) and Dustin Pedroia (5.2 in 2008).
• The NL has been ahead of the AL in each decade from the 1960s to date. The AL in the 1950s had strong seasons from Mickey Mantle (12.9 and 12.5 in 1956 and 1957) to help push them over the top.
• The AL was ahead of the NL in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s.
• The 1910s and 1920s (and even 1930s) are incomplete because the award wasn't consistently given until 1931.
• In the 1910s, the AL only named four MVPs, but each one cleared 11 WAR (Ty Cobb with 11.4, Tris Speaker with 11.0, Walter Johnson with 12.4, and Eddie Collins with 11.3). The top NL MVP by WAR in that decade was Frank Schulte at 5.6.

What MVPs had the highest single season WAR?

1. Babe Ruth (14.7, 1923)
2. Mickey Mantle (12.9, 1956)
3. Barry Bonds (12.5, 2001)
4. Mickey Mantle (12.5, 1957)
5. Barry Bonds (12.4, 2004)
6. Walter Johnson (12.4, 1913)
7. Barry Bonds (12.2, 2002)
8. Carl Yastrzemski (12.2, 1967)
9. Joe Morgan (12.0, 1975)
10. Lou Gehrig (12.0, 1927)

Note: These are not the ten best seasons in history by WAR. These are just the ten best seasons for players who won the MVP award.

And, of course, the ten (actually eleven, since there's a tie) lowest WAR totals:

1. Willie Stargell (2.3, 1979)
2. Roger Peckinpaugh (2.4, 1925)
3. Andre Dawson (2.7, 1987)
4. Juan Gonzalez (2.8, 1996)
5. Dennis Eckersley (3.0, 1992)
6. Jake Daubert (3.3, 1913)
7. Bob O'Farrell (3.4, 1926)
8. Jeff Burroughs (3.6, 1974)
9. Mickey Cochrane (3.7, 1928)
10. Justin Morneau (3.8, 2006)
11. Yogi Berra (3.8, 1955)

As that list shows, there are plenty of MVP winners that don't reach 7.62 WAR. Still, the fact that Willie Stargell won and MVP award with a 2.3 WAR season doesn't mean I should use that as my baseline either. So what baseline should I use for finding MVP-type seasons? I hesitate to use the average because, by definition, that means 50% of the players who did win the MVP award didn't even reach that level.

So, let's go back to my original baseline of 6.0 WAR. Of the 181 players who have won MVP awards in MLB history, 133 of them achieved a WAR of 6.0 or above. That's 73%. That, to me, sounds like a pretty good baseline.

Tell me, what do you think is a good baseline for measuring Wins Above MVP Level?