Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn't just a raw counting stat. The whole "replacement level" part of it also ensures that any junk numbers recorded that were below replacement level are ignored. Sean Smith recently introduced Wins Above Excellence—a way to add an additional baseline to WAR that removes any seasons with less than 3.0 WAR. The goal is to quantify only those seasons that separated a player from the pack.
I wonder if 3.0 is too low of a baseline, though. I mean, 2.0 WAR is generally considered league average. Shouldn't "excellence" start somewhere around 4.0 wins? I've used both (calling them WAE3 and WAE4) in a series of blog posts. I've also added WAE6 as a way to see how often that player achieved a truly special season. My reasoning was that around 6.0 WAR you're generally starting to talk about MVP-level performances. So, in essence, this was Wins Above MVP Level.
WAMVP? Sure, that rolls off the tongue.
Then I started wondering if 6.0 was the right baseline for WAMVP. Wouldn't the best approach be to gather the WAR for all MVP winners and find the average? So that's what I did. (Data, of course, from Rally's WAR database.)
Year | NL MVP | WAR | AL MVP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | Albert Pujols | 9.2 | Joe Mauer | 7.9 |
2008 | Albert Pujols |
9.6 | Dustin Pedroia | 5.2 |
2007 | Jimmy Rollins | 6.1 | Alex Rodriguez | 9.9 |
2006 | Ryan Howard | 5.8 | Justin Morneau | 3.8 |
2005 | Albert Pujols | 8.2 | Alex Rodriguez | 8.4 |
2004 | Barry Bonds | 12.4 | Vladimir Guerrero | 7.4 |
2003 | Barry Bonds | 10.3 | Alex Rodriguez | 7.7 |
2002 | Barry Bonds |
12.2 | Miguel Tejada | 5.2 |
2001 | Barry Bonds | 12.5 | Ichiro Suzuki | 7.6 |
2000 | Jeff Kent | 7.9 | Jason Giambi | 8.7 |
1999 | Chipper Jones | 7.0 | Ivan Rodriguez | 6.0 |
1998 | Sammy Sosa | 6.5 | Juan Gonzalez | 5.1 |
1997 | Larry Walker | 9.0 | Ken Griffey |
9.4 |
1996 | Ken Caminiti | 7.9 | Juan Gonzalez | 2.8 |
1995 | Barry Larkin |
5.9 | Mo Vaughn | 4.2 |
1994 | Jeff Bagwell | 8.9 | Frank Thomas | 6.3 |
1993 | Barry Bonds | 10.6 | Frank Thomas | 6.7 |
1992 | Barry Bonds | 10.0 | Dennis Eckersley * | 3.0 |
1991 | Terry Pendleton | 6.1 | Cal Ripken | 11.0 |
1990 | Barry Bonds | 9.7 | Rickey Henderson | 10.0 |
1989 | Kevin Mitchell | 7.7 | Robin Yount | 5.7 |
1988 | Kirk Gibson | 7.3 | Jose Canseco | 7.6 |
1987 | Andre Dawson | 2.7 | George Bell | 5.0 |
1986 | Mike Schmidt | 6.6 | Roger Clemens * | 7.9 |
1985 | Willie McGee | 8.5 | Don Mattingly | 6.4 |
1984 | Ryne Sandberg | 8.5 | Guillermo Hernandez * | 4.8 |
1983 | Dale Murphy | 7.2 | Cal Ripken | 8.3 |
1982 | Dale Murphy | 6.3 | Robin Yount | 11.5 |
1981 | Mike Schmidt | 7.6 | Rollie Fingers * | 4.1 |
1980 | Mike Schmidt | 9.1 | George Brett | 9.6 |
1979 | Keith Hernandez | 4.4 | Don Baylor | 4.4 |
Willie Stargell | 2.3 | |||
1978 | Dave Parker | 7.1 | Jim Rice | 7.0 |
1977 | George Foster | 8.2 | Rod Carew | 10.9 |
1976 | Joe Morgan | 10.0 | Thurman Munson | 5.1 |
1975 | Joe Morgan | 12.0 | Fred Lynn | 7.1 |
1974 | Steve Garvey | 5.1 | Jeff Burroughs | 3.6 |
1973 | Pete Rose | 8.5 | Reggie Jackson | 8.1 |
1972 | Johnny Bench | 9.1 | Dick Allen | 9.3 |
1971 | Joe Torre | 6.8 | Vida Blue * | 8.8 |
1970 | Johnny Bench | 6.5 | Boog Powell | 5.4 |
1969 | Willie McCovey | 8.9 | Harmon Killebrew | 6.1 |
1968 | Bob Gibson * | 11.9 | Denny McLain * | 5.9 |
1967 | Orlando Cepeda | 7.1 | Carl Yastrzemski | 12.2 |
1966 | Roberto Clemente | 7.3 | Frank Robinson | 8.3 |
1965 | Willie Mays | 11.0 | Zoilo Versalles | 7.6 |
1964 | Ken Boyer | 5.6 | Brooks Robinson | 8.1 |
1963 | Sandy Koufax * | 10.8 | Elston Howard | 5.4 |
1962 | Maury Wills | 6.1 | Mickey Mantle | 7.1 |
1961 | Frank Robinson | 7.6 | Roger Maris | 7.2 |
1960 | Dick Groat | 5.7 | Roger Maris | 7.5 |
1959 | Ernie Banks | 10.0 | Nellie Fox | 6.2 |
1958 | Ernie Banks | 9.7 | Jackie Jensen | 4.6 |
1957 | Hank Aaron | 7.5 | Mickey Mantle | 12.5 |
1956 | Don Newcombe * | 4.1 | Mickey Mantle | 12.9 |
1955 | Roy Campanella | 5.5 | Yogi Berra | 3.8 |
1954 | Willie Mays | 10.2 | Yogi Berra | 6.2 |
1953 | Roy Campanella | 7.2 | Al Rosen | 9.7 |
1952 | Hank Sauer | 5.3 | Bobby Shantz * | 8.2 |
1951 | Roy Campanella | 7.0 | Yogi Berra | 5.1 |
1950 | Jim Konstanty * | 4.0 | Phil Rizzuto | 7.1 |
1949 | Jackie Robinson | 10.3 | Ted Williams | 9.5 |
1948 | Stan Musial | 11.5 | Lou Boudreau | 10.5 |
1947 | Bob Elliott | 6.2 | Joe DiMaggio |
5.6 |
1946 | Stan Musial | 9.8 | Ted Williams | 11.8 |
1945 | Phil Cavarretta | 6.6 | Hal Newhouser * | 8.9 |
1944 | Marty Marion | 4.0 | Hal Newhouser * | 7.1 |
1943 | Stan Musial | 8.9 | Spud Chandler * | 6.0 |
1942 | Mort Cooper * | 6.8 | Joe Gordon | 8.4 |
1941 | Dolph Camilli | 6.8 | Joe DiMaggio | 9.4 |
1940 | Frank McCormick | 6.0 | Hank Greenberg | 6.4 |
1939 | Bucky Walters * | 7.7 | Joe DiMaggio | 8.9 |
1938 | Ernie Lombardi | 5.3 | immie Foxx | 7.5 |
1937 | Joe Medwick | 8.9 | Charlie Gehringer | 7.6 |
1936 | Carl Hubbell * | 9.0 | Lou Gehrig | 9.8 |
1935 | Gabby Hartnett | 5.2 | Hank Greenberg | 8.3 |
1934 | Dizzy Dean * | 8.1 | Mickey Cochrane | 4.3 |
1933 | Carl Hubbell * | 8.2 | Jimmie Foxx | 9.0 |
1932 | Chuck Klein | 6.6 | Jimmie Foxx | 10.7 |
1931 | Frankie Frisch | 4.4 | Lefty Grove * |
9.4 |
1929 | Rogers Hornsby | 11.5 | ||
1928 | Jim Bottomley | 5.5 | Mickey Cochrane | 3.7 |
1927 | Paul Waner | 7.1 | Lou Gehrig | 12.0 |
1926 | Bob O'Farrell | 3.4 | George Burns | 4.5 |
1925 | Rogers Hornsby |
10.0 | Roger Peckinpaugh | 2.4 |
1924 | Dazzy Vance * | 9.1 | Walter Johnson * | 6.2 |
1923 | Babe Ruth | 14.7 | ||
1922 | George Sisler | 8.8 | ||
1914 | Johnny Evers | 5.1 | Eddie Collins | 11.3 |
1913 | Jake Daubert |
3.3 | Walter Johnson * | 12.4 |
1912 | Larry Doyle | 5.5 | Tris Speaker | 11.0 |
1911 | Frank Schulte |
5.6 | Ty Cobb | 11.4 |
* denotes the player is a pitcher
So, let's take a look at some averages:
Years | NL AVG WAR | AL AVG WAR |
---|---|---|
All Years | 7.62 | 7.62 |
2000–2009 | 9.42 | 7.18 |
1990–1999 | 8.16 | 6.45 |
1980–1989 | 7.15 | 7.09 |
1970–1979 | 7.27 | 6.97 |
1960–1969 | 8.20 | 7.54 |
1950–1959 | 7.05 | 7.63 |
1940–1949 | 7.69 | 8.36 |
1930–1939 | 7.04 | 8.39 |
1920–1929 | 7.77 | 7.47 |
1910–1919 | 4.88 | 11.53 |
Wow, so the average WAR for all MVP winners thoughout the history of the National League is 7.62. The average for all MVP winners in American League history also happens to be 7.62. My quick math tells me the average of the two of those is 7.62.
A few notes of interest from this table:
- The NL was way ahead of the AL this decade. Two main reasons: Albert Pujols (3 MVPs at 8.2, 9.6, and 9.2) and Barry Bonds (4 MVPs at—get this—12.5, 12.2, 10.3, and 12.4). The AL had some low-WAR selections this decade in Justin Morneau (3.8 in 2006), Miguel Tejada (5.2 in 2002) and Dustin Pedroia (5.2 in 2008).
- The NL has been ahead of the AL in each decade from the 1960s to date. The AL in the 1950s had strong seasons from Mickey Mantle (12.9 and 12.5 in 1956 and 1957) to help push them over the top.
- The AL was ahead of the NL in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s.
- The 1910s and 1920s (and even 1930s) are incomplete because the award wasn't consistently given until 1931.
- In the 1910s, the AL only named four MVPs, but each one cleared 11 WAR (Ty Cobb with 11.4, Tris Speaker with 11.0, Walter Johnson with 12.4, and Eddie Collins with 11.3). The top NL MVP by WAR in that decade was Frank Schulte at 5.6.
What MVPs had the highest single season WAR?
- Babe Ruth (14.7, 1923)
- Mickey Mantle (12.9, 1956)
- Barry Bonds (12.5, 2001)
- Mickey Mantle (12.5, 1957)
- Barry Bonds (12.4, 2004)
- Walter Johnson (12.4, 1913)
- Barry Bonds (12.2, 2002)
- Carl Yastrzemski (12.2, 1967)
- Joe Morgan (12.0, 1975)
- Lou Gehrig (12.0, 1927)
Note: These are not the ten best seasons in history by WAR. These are just the ten best seasons for players who won the MVP award.
And, of course, the ten (actually eleven, since there's a tie) lowest WAR totals:
- Willie Stargell (2.3, 1979)
- Roger Peckinpaugh (2.4, 1925)
- Andre Dawson (2.7, 1987)
- Juan Gonzalez (2.8, 1996)
- Dennis Eckersley (3.0, 1992)
- Jake Daubert (3.3, 1913)
- Bob O'Farrell (3.4, 1926)
- Jeff Burroughs (3.6, 1974)
- Mickey Cochrane (3.7, 1928)
- Justin Morneau (3.8, 2006)
- Yogi Berra (3.8, 1955)
As that list shows, there are plenty of MVP winners that don't reach 7.62 WAR. Still, the fact that Willie Stargell won and MVP award with a 2.3 WAR season doesn't mean I should use that as my baseline either. So what baseline should I use for finding MVP-type seasons? I hesitate to use the average because, by definition, that means 50% of the players who did win the MVP award didn't even reach that level.
So, let's go back to my original baseline of 6.0 WAR. Of the 181 players who have won MVP awards in MLB history, 133 of them achieved a WAR of 6.0 or above. That's 73%. That, to me, sounds like a pretty good baseline.
Tell me, what do you think is a good baseline for measuring Wins Above MVP Level?