Pitchf/x Thoughts: Switching Roles Part 2 - Phil Hughes

So Last week I took a look at Joba Chamberlain to see if there was a difference in his pitches as a reliever compared to as a starter, and if that resulted in different results.  The answer was: yeah the pitches seemed maybe to be faster, but it's hard to tie that directly to the improvement of his statistics in 2010.

Phil Hughes did the Reverse of Joba:  Whereas Joba used 09 to convert from reliever to starter and then converted back in 2010, Hughes went from starter to reliever in 2009 before converting back to a starter this past year.  How did his pitches change?  Did he drop/add a pitch in either role?  And can we trace the changes in results (Hughes was moderately, but not greatly, worse as a starter) to the shift in roles or is it something else? 

Results after the Jump.

Hughes Pitches and their Movement:

Phil Hughes has at least 4 pitches:  A (four-seam) fastball, a change-up, a curveball, and a cutter.  He may have a two-seam fastball as well as a four-seamer as it seemed like there might have been 2 fastballs at times in 2009 (and even less often in 2010) as a starter, but it's really l hard to tell, so I'll be discussing all of Hughes' fastballs together. 

The following table (Table 1) shows the movement and velocity of Hughes' pitches each of the last 3 years in each relevant role:

Year	Pitch Type	Starter or Relief	# Thrown	Average Velocity	Average Horiz. Spin Deflection	Average Vert. Spin Deflection
2008	Change	Starter	34	80.000	-9.435	5.988
2009	Change	Reliever	1*	84.700	-12.400	6.760
2009	Change	Starter	8	83.263	-8.497	6.709
2010	Change	Reliever**	1**	86.200	-11.990	3.150
2010	Change	Starter	101	84.636	-9.108	6.509
2008	Curve	Starter	141	71.906	6.509	-9.542
2009	Curve	Reliever	165	77.505	7.265	-7.844
2009	Curve	Starter	133	76.444	7.728	-7.449
2010	Curve	Reliever**	2**	75.050	6.890	-9.875
2010	Curve	Starter	495	75.769	5.956	-8.736
2008	Cutter	Starter	57	83.572	4.354	4.234
2009	Cutter	Reliever	104	89.200	1.196	5.259
2009	Cutter	Starter	128	87.663	0.343	6.153
2010	Cutter	Reliever**	1**	88.600	5.450	7.290
2010	Cutter	Starter	502	88.635	-0.442	6.722
2008	Fastball	Starter	385	91.082	-5.354	10.769
2009	Fastball	Reliever	552	94.632	-5.021	10.285
2009	Fastball	Starter	354	92.252	-6.173	9.914
2010	Fastball	Reliever**	21**	93.167	-4.023	9.327
2010	Fastball	Starter	1874	92.517	-5.834	9.991

Table 1:  The Movement and Velocity of the pitches of Phil Hughes over the last three years as a reliever and as a starter.  Results as a reliever are highlighted in light blue. 
To Read:
Horizontal Spin Deflection:  The amount in inches that the pitch breaks horizontally due to the spin of the ball.  A Positive Horizontal Spin Deflection means that the pitch goes in on Left-Handed Batters (LHBs) while a Negative Horizontal Spin Deflection means that the pitch goes in on Right-Handed Batters.
Vertical Spin Deflection:  The amount of inches the ball drops/"rises" as compared to how we would expect gravity to make a pitch drop.  So a Fastball with 10 inches of Vertical Spin Deflection "RISES" 10 inches more than it should if gravity was the only force acting on it and a curveball with -10 inches of Vertical Spin Deflection drops 10 inches more than a pitch thrown that is just acted on by gravity.
*  Table Cells marked with asterisks (*s) shouldn't be taken too seriously due to small sample size.
** Hughes made one appearance as a reliever in 2010 at the end of the season.  I've included the results for the sake of completeness.
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So, what do we see here?  Well, in 2009, when Hughes split time as a reliever and as a starter, he certainly seemed to have more gas on his pitches as a reliever.  Still, this effect (a difference of over 2MPH on his fastballs), should not be overstated....Hughes was a reliever starting in June, and pitchers tend to increase their velocity in the summer months.  So some of this difference could just be caused by weather changes (an increase in temperature).  Still, it seems like there was clearly some velocity increase from the switch to being a reliever.  The movement of his pitches seems to have remained the same despite the role switch.

Meanwhile, like Joba, Hughes completely abandoned his change-up as a reliever.  I wonder if dropping the change-up is a normal thing for starters converting to relief around the majors, or if it's just a Yankees thing (for pitchers who don't have clearly great change-ups). 

Now that we've found this velocity increase as a reliever, lets look at Hughes' results:

Hughes' Pitch Results:

NOTE:  For all the Tables below, I use the same statistics.  They are explained in the following legend:
TABLES LEGEND:
Whiff rate = Swinging strikes/swings
Swing rate = Swings/total pitches
Swinging strike rate = Swinging strikes/total pitches
In Wide Zone percentage = Percentage of pitches located within a wide (two foot) strike zone
RV100 = Run value per 100 pitches (A measure of pitch effectiveness).  Negative Values are GOOD for pitchers, while positive values are BAD. 
RVe100 = Expected run value per 100 pitches (A measure of pitch effectiveness, controlling for luck on certain batted ball types.)

 

Pitch Type	Year	Batter Handedness	Starter or Relief	# Thrown	Whiff Rate	Swing Rate	Sw Strike Rate	In-Wide-Zone %	GB %	RV100	RVe100
Change	2008	L	Starter	33	30.00%	30.30%	9.09%	24.24%	50.00%	3.6867	3.4219
Change	2010	L	Starter	99	27.59%	29.29%	8.08%	35.35%	53.85%	-0.5092	0.5774

Table 2:  The Results of Hughes' Change-Ups.

Hughes only throws the change-up as a starter, but it's not a particularly good pitch in any event.  Hughes uses the pitch against opposite-handed batters, like many pitchers, and doesn't get particularly many swinging strikes with the pitch.  His ground ball rate is decent, however.  Still, when Hughes is a reliever, it wouldn't seem like much of a sacrifice to lose this pitch. 

 

Pitch Type	Year	Batter Handedness	Starter or Relief	# Thrown	Whiff Rate	Swing Rate	Sw Strike Rate	In-Wide-Zone %	GB %	RV100	RVe100
Curve	2008	L	Starter	68	20.00%	29.41%	5.88%	61.76%	75.00%	-1.7146	-1.6186
Curve	2008	R	Starter	73	9.38%	43.84%	4.11%	73.97%	37.50%	0.1958	0.463
Curve	2009	L	Reliever	96	17.24%	30.21%	5.21%	48.96%	69.23%	-0.7642	0.8403
Curve	2009	L	Starter	65	22.73%	33.85%	7.69%	43.08%	66.67%	3.3935	0.4834
Curve	2009	R	Reliever	69	20.69%	42.03%	8.70%	56.52%	57.14%	-2.0603	0.2726
Curve	2009	R	Starter	68	27.27%	48.53%	13.24%	57.35%	73.33%	-0.3481	-1.6295
Curve	2010	L	Starter	299	25.26%	31.77%	8.03%	48.49%	54.29%	-0.9009	-0.7668
Curve	2010	R	Starter	196	9.09%	28.06%	2.55%	56.63%	53.66%	3.6669	1.519

Table 3:  The Results of Hughes' Curveballs as a starter and as reliever, over the last three years:

Hughes' Curveball has not been particularly great throughout his career, with it only once (as a starter in 2009 against Right-Handed Batters) resulting in a good swinging strike rate for a curveball.  In 2010, as a starter of course, the pitch has just been absolutely horrid against Right-Handed Batters, with an amazingly low whiff rate of just 9%.  There isn't any real reason for this I can find, as the aim of the pitch has remained constant throughout the last there years (he changes his aim based upon batter handedness so that the pitch is low and away to both left and right-handed hitters).  And the change is so dramatic that it could just be a random flukish outlier, but it should be watched in the year to come.

Oh and looking at this and his aim, we don't seem to see much of a difference (aside from the aforementioned fluke) for Hughes as a starter vs Hughes as a reliever, although admittedly, Hughes didn't use the curveball too often as a reliever.

Pitch Type	Year	Batter Handedness	Starter or Relief	# Thrown	Whiff Rate	Swing Rate	Sw Strike Rate	In-Wide-Zone %	GB %	RV100	RVe100
Cutter	2008	L	Starter	18	0.00%	61.11%	0.00%	66.67%	20.00%	-4.0822	-0.1842
Cutter	2008	R	Starter	39	20.83%	61.54%	12.82%	76.92%	0.00%	0.3338	0.8351
Cutter	2009	L	Reliever	26	23.53%	65.38%	15.38%	88.46%	33.33%	-4.5935	-3.6926
Cutter	2009	L	Starter	38	15.00%	52.63%	7.89%	68.42%	28.57%	3.9184	-0.6009
Cutter	2009	R	Reliever	78	36.59%	52.56%	19.23%	67.95%	23.08%	-4.769	-2.8628
Cutter	2009	R	Starter	90	9.76%	45.56%	4.44%	67.78%	12.50%	-1.3381	-0.7519
Cutter	2010	L	Starter	170	20.75%	62.35%	12.94%	68.24%	36.59%	-0.0225	0.305
Cutter	2010	R	Starter	332	17.84%	64.16%	11.45%	76.81%	38.27%	-2.0968	-1.0526

Table 4:  The Results of Hughes' Cutters as a starter and as reliever, over the last three years

Hughes' Cutter is thrown far more against right-handed batters (like a slider) than against left-handed batters.  The end result is that are statistics as a reliever against left-handed batters is subject to really small sample sizes and so I don't take it too seriously. 

In the small sample we do have of how his Cutter was effective as a reliever, it was far superior to that as a starter, due to a ridiculously high 37% whiff rate.  As a starter, especially this year, the Cutter has still been very effective (and in fact it's been extremely accurate, with a good fastball-like 77% zone % against right-handed batters).  Still, despite the small sample size issues, it seems like this pitch was superior in results as a reliever.  That said, the pitch was still fairly good for him as a starter.

Pitch Type	Year	Batter Handedness	Starter or Relief	# Thrown	Whiff Rate	Swing Rate	Sw Strike Rate	In-Wide-Zone %	GB %	RV100	RVe100
Fastball	2008	L	Starter	177	8.70%	38.98%	3.39%	64.41%	32.26%	2.4399	0.7835
Fastball	2008	R	Starter	208	8.16%	47.12%	3.85%	62.50%	34.15%	-0.0014	0.6549
Fastball	2009	L	Reliever	299	20.29%	46.15%	9.36%	64.55%	48.48%	-1.9658	-1.8743
Fastball	2009	L	Starter	169	15.38%	46.15%	7.10%	62.72%	34.48%	1.1828	0.6631
Fastball	2009	R	Reliever	253	27.81%	59.68%	16.60%	77.47%	8.57%	-3.4913	-1.995
Fastball	2009	R	Starter	185	14.61%	48.11%	7.03%	64.86%	23.08%	0.3856	-0.6605
Fastball	2010	L	Starter	1030	13.65%	49.81%	6.80%	65.83%	34.09%	-0.3924	-1.1118
Fastball	2010	R	Starter	844	20.68%	55.57%	11.49%	74.53%	25.40%	-1.7204	-0.8482

Table 5:  The Results of Hughes' Fastballs as a starter and as reliever, over the last three years

Of course, this pitch is the big one: the fastball.  Hughes' fastball is his bread and butter, and it's extremely effective, as seen this year.  Against Left-handed batters this year, the pitch has been reasonably effective: It's swinging strike rate is slightly above average (6%) and it's GB% is poor, but not horrible.  Against right-handed batters, the pitch is an EXTREME fly ball pitch...but that doesn't matter, the pitch is still extremely effective!  This because the pitch gets a greatly above-average swinging strike rate - like that of a change-up rather than a fastball. 

But while the pitch is effective when Hughes is a starter, how effective is it when he's reliever?  The answer: It's even more effective, getting swinging strikes an amazing amount of the time.  The Pitch's aim seems roughly the same regardless of what Hughes' role is, so I'd guess this increase in whiffs is due to the pitch having increased velocity as a reliever. 

(Note: If you're wondering why the pitch seemed so ineffective in 2008, it's because the pitch was aimed lower.  Fastballs get swinging strikes when aimed high, and for some reason, he didn't locate high in 2008.) 

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Conclusion: 

Last week, I came to the conclusion that while Joba had improved in the last year as a reliever, it didn't seem likely to have been caused by his change in role, and was more of a coincidence. 

But with Hughes, his better performance as a reliever would seem likely to be caused by his increased velocity.  After all, that's the only thing that seemed to change on his pitches, and both his fastball and his cutter, his two most frequently used pitches (well the curve's close in use to the cutter) were better for Hughes as a reliever.  So yeah, the role change does make a difference.

That said, I wouldn't necessarily conclude that Hughes ought to therefore be a reliever.  Both the fastball and the cutter were still pretty good for him as a starter.  And I can't imagine that terrible curveball whiff rate will continue...it's too low to be anything but a fluke.  The Curveball isn't a great pitch in general, but it should therefore improve regardless of his role next year.  Thus he should be probably a better starter next year if he stays in this role.  And well, starters are simply more valuable than relievers.  So I'd say he should stay where he is.  But of course, it depends on what the Yankees have. 

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Administrative Note:  These first two articles in this column are what I'd love to do every week, but well, I suspect I won't have time.  So the weekly column will more frequently be shorter pieces about interesting odds and ends I find while doing Pitchf/x work, and I hope you'll all find them as interesting as I did when I found them.