2010 Beyond the Box Score Catcher Defense Rankings

Remember me? No? Yeah... about that... I did mean to post every month during the season... but I was busy, baby, you know I love you, right? Look, here's the full, year-end rankings, just for you and me. Forgive me now?

I won't go over the methodology stuff that you can find in earlier posts (so before complaining about it, check those out), there's a short bit at the end of the post after the full rankings. Quickly qualifications: I don't make any great claim to originality (these are my modified version of what own our JinAZ and and Sean "CHONE" Smith do) or perfection here. I started doing this because it was something I could do in Excel fairly quickly during the season from easily available stats. While these might be somewhat helpful in estimating "true talent" (i.e., making projections), these are the observed estimated value of observed 2010 performances of catchers (in runs above/below average) that are not prorated for playing time, so there is a difference there.

That said, a comparison with the 2010 Fans Scouting Report for catchers shows a decent amount of correlation at a glance, so I do think these are getting at something real, despite previously-discussed limitations. The full rankings and more commentary are after the jump, let's see which catchers in baseball are ranked as providing the most (and least) overall value to their team (I didn't combine multi-team performances) in 2010 in runs above/below average in combined fielding errors (FE), throwing errors (TE), passed balls and wild pitches allowed (PBWP), and caught stealing (CS).

Before that, though, here are a few "honorable mentions" in overall defensive value, presented without comment: Joe Mauer (#11, +4.9 runs), Buster Posey (#12, +4.5), Brian McCann (#15, +3.1), John Buck (#22, +1.5), Brayan Pena (#46, +0.4), Carlos Santana (#65, 0.0), Jason Kendall (#78, -0.8).

Best Overall: In agreement with the Fans Scouting Report, the 2010 BtB catcher defense rankings see the Cardinals' Yadier Molina as the defensively most valuable catcher in baseball at 14.6 runs above average. Even with a .299 wOBA, that makes him a very valuable player. The second-best was a surprise to me: Ivan Rodriguez at +9.6 runs. I'm still not sure that signing really made sense for the Nationals given his age, but he can still bring it behind the plate (if not beside it). Carlos Ruiz was #3 overall at +9.2 runs, and given his good bat (+15 runs according to FanGraphs), this was a monster season for a guy who doesn't get that much national attention. 

Worst Overall: Out of the 120 catchers listed here, Mike Napoli was pretty bad at number 113 overall and 5.5 runbelow average, so that might make some sense out of the Angels disillusionment with him, except that in relatively equal playing time, his replacement, alleged defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis, in in a three-way tie for baseball's worst with Ryan Doumit (of course) and Francisco Cervelli at -9.4 runs each. The Yankees had a real defensive machine behind the plate in 2010, with Jorge Posada clocking in at -8.6 runs.

Caught Stealing, the Best: Yadier Molina is (unsurprisingly) the best here at +8.6 runs, I don't know why teams run on him. The Rockies' (now the Jays until [hopefully for them] he turns down arbitration) Miguel Olivo gunned down plenty of runners, too, at +7.1 runs. It will be interesting to see who signs him, given his regression at the plate after a hot start and continued issues with blocking pitches. Cleveland's Lou Marson was a disaster at the plate this season, but he probably isn't really as bad as he looked, and if he really is this good defensively (+5.3 runs in throwing out basestealers, +7.3 overall) he will be a good backup for Carlos Santana, at least.

Caught Stealing, the Worst: No big shocker here, with Ryan Doumit at -8.5 runs. It wouldn't surprise me if he never saw extended time behind the plate again. Second-worst is Victor Martinez at -6 runs; as many have noted, teams looking at him in free agency really do need to consider just how much longer he'll be viable as a catcher when estimating his value. Jorge Posada is not surprise at -5.5 runs, but Kurt Suzuki is at -4.7.

Passed Balls & Wild Pitches, the Best: This is where Carlos Ruiz made his bones in these rankings, at +7.2 runs. Rod Barajas gets lumped in with the Bengie Molina crowd a fair bit, and while that is understandable on one level, a .310 wOBA isn't bad for a catcher, and he is good defensively, at +6.7 runs in blocking pitches. Pudge Rodriguez is usually noted for his throwing arm, but was more impressive at blocking pitches according to these rankings at +5.4 runs.

Passed Balls & Wild Pitches, the Worst: Jeff Mathis, defensive wunderkind, fills out the bottom of the rankings at -5.6 runs. He must call a heck of a game. Passed Ball Legend Miguel Olivo gives most of his value in the running game back in this part of his game at -4.9 runs. Adam Moore had a typical 2010 Mariners performance here at -4.5 runs.

Here are short explanations of the formulas used. 

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: A)  figure out the league rate for caught stealing; B) separate the catcher caught stealings from pitcher pickoffs; C) total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate; D) use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). Formula for runs above/below average: (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate = (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: There are two types of errors, throwing errors and fielding errors .There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). Throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.