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An Update on the Race for Bryce Harper

Our standings as of now:

Team Wins GR Losses
WAS 46 28 88
KC 51 29 82
PIT 53 30 79
BAL 54 28 80


Washington with a commanding five game lead. With a little under 30 games for most of contenders, how bad would they have to be to guarantee the pick? Assuming the Nationals have played to their true talent level thus far this season, we would expect them to win 10 of their remaining games. Anything can happen in a stretch of 28 games, so maybe the Nationals get hot ... or colder ... but for our purposes we're simply looking at 10 wins, 18 losses the rest of the way.

Team exW exL
WAS 10 18
KC 11 18
PIT 12 18
BAL 11 17


I would break out the binomial distribution charts and all that jazz, but in order for Kansas City to top the Nationals playing .343 ball the rest of the way, they'd have to win four games. The chances of that happening are less than 0.5%.

Congratulations Washington, you've done it once again.