See the rest of the rankings below the jump!
"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):
American League: E=Yankees, C=White Sox, W=Angels*, WC=Rays*
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies
This Weeks' Movers
"Moving" this week are the power rankings, which have gotten a bit of a facelift this week based on input from Justin Bopp and Sky Kalkman!
There has been no change to the underlying methodology, which was originally present in the first post in this series. The biggest change, aside from the pretty graphics, is that I've renamed eW% to TQI (Team Quality Index), which is the term I'll use for it moving forward. In a sense, I think eW% has always been confusing. While the number is calculated as a "winning percentage," it has never been a number that should be compared to a team's actual winning percentage. Instead, it's a number that represents an estimated winning percentage in a hypothetical league containing all MLB teams--AL and NL alike. AL teams will have a higher TQI than NL teams, on average, because AL teams currently play in a league with a superior level of competition, and therefore we give their component statistics a boost to reflect this difference in league quality. In other words, if we let AL teams play NL teams all season long, they'd end up with higher winning percentages because they'd get to play the inferior NL teams more often).
Below this commentary, you will see tables that break down where the TQI number comes from. First is a table showing expected vs. actual run scored and allowed totals, and how those winning percentages are broken down into estimated winning percentages. If you're interested in seeing why your particular team is ranked differently than you'd expect, this is the place to start. Is it just that the team is deviating from Pythagoras? Or is it that our estimated runs scored or runs allowed numbers are substantially different from what has really happened?
Next are tables breaking down the specific components that feed into our expected run scored and runs allowed numbers. Here you'll find various measures of offense, including measures of clutchiness on offense and differences between ERA and FIP or tRA for pitchers. Feel free to make suggestions of other stats you'd like to see here.
I hope you like the new rankings. Please do let me know what you think.
(next week, this space will include discussion of teams once again--but let me just note that the team surging the most in the rankings right now is my Cincinnati Reds, up two slots and 14-points in TQI!).
Converting Runs to Wins
| Team | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | LgAdj | TQI |
| ARI | 648 | 658 | 705 | 639 | 0.431 | 0.461 | 0.514 | -19 | 0.487 |
| ATL | 693 | 694 | 606 | 642 | 0.539 | 0.562 | 0.536 | -19 | 0.510 |
| BAL | 687 | 670 | 815 | 804 | 0.395 | 0.418 | 0.413 | 19 | 0.438 |
| BOS | 780 | 786 | 645 | 666 | 0.596 | 0.589 | 0.579 | 19 | 0.603 |
| CHA | 659 | 654 | 677 | 655 | 0.477 | 0.487 | 0.499 | 19 | 0.526 |
| CHN | 650 | 654 | 610 | 627 | 0.517 | 0.529 | 0.520 | -19 | 0.493 |
| CIN | 607 | 585 | 675 | 689 | 0.467 | 0.451 | 0.425 | -19 | 0.398 |
| CLE | 725 | 737 | 809 | 796 | 0.404 | 0.447 | 0.463 | 19 | 0.487 |
| COL | 695 | 708 | 618 | 569 | 0.566 | 0.554 | 0.599 | -19 | 0.572 |
| DET | 692 | 687 | 685 | 698 | 0.536 | 0.505 | 0.492 | 19 | 0.518 |
| FLA | 746 | 749 | 741 | 743 | 0.536 | 0.503 | 0.504 | -19 | 0.480 |
| HOU | 616 | 625 | 717 | 722 | 0.467 | 0.430 | 0.433 | -19 | 0.407 |
| KC | 645 | 621 | 768 | 723 | 0.414 | 0.418 | 0.430 | 19 | 0.456 |
| LAA | 836 | 810 | 726 | 773 | 0.592 | 0.568 | 0.523 | 19 | 0.546 |
| LAN | 759 | 763 | 578 | 607 | 0.599 | 0.625 | 0.607 | -19 | 0.581 |
| MIL | 722 | 719 | 751 | 759 | 0.493 | 0.481 | 0.474 | -19 | 0.450 |
| MIN | 744 | 747 | 713 | 755 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.495 | 19 | 0.519 |
| NYA | 867 | 909 | 717 | 713 | 0.634 | 0.592 | 0.618 | 19 | 0.640 |
| NYN | 631 | 657 | 728 | 742 | 0.425 | 0.433 | 0.442 | -19 | 0.417 |
| OAK | 727 | 686 | 724 | 670 | 0.474 | 0.501 | 0.511 | 19 | 0.537 |
| PHI | 747 | 748 | 635 | 666 | 0.583 | 0.576 | 0.555 | -19 | 0.530 |
| PIT | 604 | 591 | 741 | 728 | 0.373 | 0.405 | 0.404 | -19 | 0.379 |
| SD | 658 | 657 | 802 | 774 | 0.458 | 0.406 | 0.422 | -19 | 0.397 |
| SEA | 619 | 622 | 676 | 697 | 0.520 | 0.459 | 0.447 | 19 | 0.473 |
| SF | 612 | 572 | 577 | 621 | 0.539 | 0.526 | 0.463 | -19 | 0.434 |
| STL | 701 | 705 | 604 | 634 | 0.582 | 0.568 | 0.550 | -19 | 0.523 |
| TB | 761 | 788 | 702 | 663 | 0.513 | 0.538 | 0.582 | 19 | 0.606 |
| TEX | 707 | 684 | 661 | 656 | 0.550 | 0.531 | 0.519 | 19 | 0.545 |
| TOR | 720 | 734 | 708 | 703 | 0.454 | 0.508 | 0.521 | 19 | 0.546 |
| WAS | 659 | 687 | 821 | 820 | 0.344 | 0.396 | 0.416 | -19 | 0.392 |
Table Legend
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage (previously eW%lg), using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TQI = Team Quality Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.
Team Offenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | wRC | EqBRR | Clutch |
| NYA | 867 | 909 | 0.364 | 915 | -6 | -0.78 |
| LAA | 836 | 810 | 0.349 | 811 | -1 | 1.99 |
| TB | 761 | 788 | 0.347 | 785 | 3 | -3.2 |
| BOS | 780 | 786 | 0.345 | 787 | 0 | -2.52 |
| MIN | 744 | 747 | 0.338 | 742 | 5 | -2.29 |
| PHI | 747 | 748 | 0.338 | 750 | -2 | 3.19 |
| LAN | 759 | 763 | 0.338 | 767 | -4 | -3.62 |
| FLA | 746 | 749 | 0.337 | 749 | 0 | 1.04 |
| CLE | 725 | 737 | 0.336 | 740 | -3 | -5.21 |
| TOR | 720 | 734 | 0.334 | 725 | 9 | -7.66 |
| MIL | 722 | 719 | 0.333 | 728 | -10 | 1.53 |
| STL | 701 | 705 | 0.332 | 702 | 3 | 1.27 |
| COL | 695 | 708 | 0.331 | 701 | 6 | -3.96 |
| TEX | 707 | 684 | 0.330 | 686 | -2 | -1.86 |
| DET | 692 | 687 | 0.330 | 689 | -2 | 1.83 |
| WAS | 659 | 687 | 0.328 | 696 | -9 | -4.49 |
| ATL | 693 | 694 | 0.327 | 708 | -14 | -1.68 |
| OAK | 727 | 686 | 0.327 | 674 | 12 | -3.34 |
| BAL | 687 | 670 | 0.324 | 691 | -21 | -2.61 |
| SD | 658 | 657 | 0.322 | 665 | -8 | 2.71 |
| NYN | 631 | 657 | 0.322 | 653 | 3 | -1.1 |
| CHA | 659 | 654 | 0.322 | 663 | -8 | -2.48 |
| CHN | 650 | 654 | 0.320 | 667 | -13 | -5.25 |
| ARI | 648 | 658 | 0.319 | 664 | -6 | -3.99 |
| HOU | 616 | 625 | 0.319 | 624 | 1 | 3.44 |
| SEA | 619 | 622 | 0.317 | 623 | -2 | 2.32 |
| KC | 645 | 621 | 0.317 | 632 | -11 | -1.65 |
| PIT | 604 | 591 | 0.313 | 600 | -9 | -2.79 |
| CIN | 607 | 585 | 0.308 | 593 | -8 | -2.11 |
| SF | 612 | 572 | 0.308 | 561 | 11 | 3.48 |
Table Legend
RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's fielding composite fielding statistics from Baseball Prospectus
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.
Team Defenses
| Team | RA | eRA | ERA | tERA | tRuns | BABIP | Field | Catch |
| COL | 618 | 569 | 4.25 | 3.56 | 574 | 0.307 | 7 | -2 |
| LAN | 578 | 607 | 3.40 | 3.78 | 629 | 0.280 | 25 | -3 |
| CHA | 677 | 655 | 4.21 | 3.82 | 623 | 0.303 | -27 | -6 |
| ATL | 606 | 642 | 3.62 | 3.85 | 629 | 0.308 | -17 | 3 |
| CHN | 610 | 627 | 3.85 | 3.88 | 629 | 0.293 | -4 | 7 |
| ARI | 705 | 639 | 4.41 | 3.95 | 648 | 0.308 | 20 | -11 |
| BOS | 645 | 666 | 4.24 | 3.96 | 636 | 0.319 | -22 | -8 |
| STL | 604 | 634 | 3.62 | 3.97 | 646 | 0.297 | 4 | 9 |
| SF | 577 | 621 | 3.62 | 4.03 | 654 | 0.291 | 39 | -6 |
| KC | 768 | 723 | 4.72 | 4.10 | 658 | 0.314 | -50 | -16 |
| OAK | 724 | 670 | 4.28 | 4.12 | 671 | 0.308 | -5 | 6 |
| TOR | 708 | 703 | 4.43 | 4.24 | 692 | 0.313 | -18 | 7 |
| PHI | 635 | 666 | 4.09 | 4.30 | 698 | 0.300 | 27 | 5 |
| FLA | 741 | 743 | 4.36 | 4.36 | 712 | 0.311 | -27 | -4 |
| NYA | 717 | 713 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 715 | 0.299 | 4 | -2 |
| HOU | 717 | 722 | 4.46 | 4.36 | 703 | 0.315 | -22 | 2 |
| TEX | 661 | 656 | 4.33 | 4.37 | 701 | 0.291 | 40 | 4 |
| TB | 702 | 663 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 705 | 0.297 | 40 | 2 |
| NYN | 728 | 742 | 4.53 | 4.42 | 712 | 0.305 | -37 | 7 |
| MIN | 713 | 755 | 4.52 | 4.47 | 724 | 0.308 | -31 | -1 |
| CIN | 675 | 689 | 4.22 | 4.54 | 744 | 0.289 | 43 | 11 |
| DET | 685 | 698 | 4.33 | 4.62 | 739 | 0.298 | 27 | 14 |
| PIT | 741 | 728 | 4.67 | 4.63 | 733 | 0.305 | 11 | -7 |
| SD | 802 | 774 | 4.46 | 4.67 | 766 | 0.303 | -10 | 2 |
| LAA | 726 | 773 | 4.50 | 4.72 | 765 | 0.306 | -1 | -7 |
| SEA | 676 | 697 | 3.91 | 4.72 | 771 | 0.279 | 67 | 7 |
| CLE | 809 | 796 | 5.08 | 4.75 | 761 | 0.313 | -33 | -2 |
| MIL | 751 | 759 | 4.76 | 4.77 | 768 | 0.301 | 12 | -3 |
| BAL | 815 | 804 | 5.15 | 4.77 | 767 | 0.316 | -40 | 3 |
| WAS | 821 | 820 | 5.17 | 5.00 | 788 | 0.306 | -23 | -9 |
Table Legend
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
tERA = Estimated Earned Run Average, a home brew version of Graham McAree's statistic)
tRuns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on tERA
BABIP = Straight-up Batting Average on Balls In Play
Field = An average of bUZR from FanGraphs and THT's team fielding statistic, converted to runs.
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, and E's, described here
Methods underlying these rankings were described in more detail in the first post in this series.