BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 7th 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.  Methods note: as per our discussion last week, I've scaled back the league adjustment a tad--there was a slight amount of double dipping going on.  As you'll see, it doesn't make much of a difference.  The "Chg" column below is based on re-rolled rankings last week vs. this week.

BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 7th 2009

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees*, Rays, Angels*
Pitching (tRA): White Sox, Red Sox*, Royals
Fielding (Fld): Rays, Mariners*, Rangers

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Dodgers
Fielding (Fld): Pirates, Reds, Brewers

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays, C=White Sox, W=Angels*, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Phillies, C=Brewers, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

This Week's Movers:

The Angels moved up four spots, wrested the lead in the AL West while simultaneously appearing for the first time among the AL's top three offenses.  In reality, they've won 10 of their last 14...but unfortunately for The Singing Cowboy's team, 3 of the four losses have come at the hands of the Rangers, who are playing nearly as well.  As a result, they are currently tied in the actual standings--and playing tonight!

The Phillies surged up the rankings this week, largely on the back of their record-breaking ass-kick of my Reds on July 6.  Meanwhile, their principle threat for much of the year--the Mets--are in a freefall, losing 9 of their last 11 and falling to 22nd on our list.  But wait--the Braves surged this week through the 0.500 teams, picking up seven spots and are now just 3 spots behind the Phillies.  The NL East seems as though it's becoming a battle between the Phillies' offense and the Braves' pitching...at least on paper.  In reality, the Marlins are in the mix as well, but our rankings don't think that team has played quite as well as their record indicates: they've scored 20 more runs then their wRC would predict.

Finally, it's worth noting that for the first time in weeks, the top four teams are not all in the AL East!  The Dodgers crept up a notch to 4th overall behind the again-slumping Blue Jays, who have gone 2-6 against their own division over the past 8 games.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are hot-hot-hot (again) and picked up some of the gains the Rays made last week in the rankings.

Actual vs Expected Performances

Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed.  When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants or Marlins), this table will hopefully help you see why.