BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

BtB Power Rankings

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees, Rays, Angels
Pitching (tRA): Red Sox, White Sox, Royals
Fielding (Fld): Rangers*, Mariners, Rays

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Diamondbacks
Fielding (Fld): Pirates, Giants, Brewers*

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Yankees*, C=White Sox, W=Rangers*, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cubs*, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

This Week's Movers:

The big news this week is that we have a new overall leader, and a new leader in the AL East--the Yankees.  This is the first time the Yankees have led it all this year, and the first time anyone but the Rays were ranked on top since our June 9th update.  But the Yankees have lost only 7 games since June 24th, and while only a few of their wins have been genuine blowouts, they're basically having their way with the rest of baseball right now.  Best offense in the league (and probably baseball) and decent-to-above average fielding carry what has been a sub-par (for the AL, anyway) pitching staff.  All they need is Bronson Arroyo, and they're assured a pennant.

The Rangers and Cubs also took the on-paper lead in their respective divisions.  In reality, the Rangers and Angels are in a dead heat--a fraction of a run difference in their league adjustments is enough to reverse who is leading (Angels lead in eW%lg right now).  The Cubs, on the other had, put together a nice little winning streak (thanks in part to my Reds' suckitude, which is becoming a theme), while the Brewers seem to be imploding with three blowout losses in a row (which really hurt in these kinds of rankings).  The Cardinals held also gained slightly, and the extra few wins they'll get out of Holliday over the rest of the season puts them good position to expand their "real" lead and take the NL Central in our on-paper rankings by the end of September.

Another surging team this week are the Braves, which continue to gain ground against a hot Phillies team.  The Braves are essentially tied with the Phillies on paper at this point, which is the first time that has happened this year.  If anyone is going to challenge the Phillies' actual lead over the rest of the season, I think it's going to be the Francoeur-less Braves.

Actual vs Expected Performances

Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed.  When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants), this table will hopefully help you see the cause.