J.P. Howell has been the most deceptive pitcher in 2009, Daniel Cabrera the least.
I'm defining deception in a simplistic manner: called strikes per takes. But, it's calculated by count, relative to the league average and weighted (by the number of takes in that count against the specific pitcher).
So, league averages for called strikes per takes by count. Individual averages calculated the same way, the league average subtracted out and the resulting value divided by the league average. There you have called strikes per take above average (CSpTAA) by count which you then use to create a weighted average for each pitcher. Top, and Bottom, 20 after the jump.
The deception, as I'm calling it, can be from selection, movement or location. Who knows. When creating metrics like this in the past, I also included swings out of the zone. That should be included in this somehow, but I like the simplicity of this approach (for now).
Updated: see the comments for these #'s corrected for control.
| Most Deceptive |
takes | CSpTAA | Least Deceptive |
takes | CSpTAA | |
| J.P. Howell | 423 | .344 | Daniel Cabrera | 462 | -.250 | |
| Roy Halladay | 922 | .337 | Scott Richmond | 697 | -.247 | |
| Jake Peavy | 680 | .321 | Anthony Reyes | 405 | -.242 | |
| Dan Haren | 1155 | .317 | Fausto Carmona | 631 | -.235 | |
| Ted Lilly | 862 | .297 | Brandon Morrow | 460 | -.223 | |
| Jonathan Broxton | 371 | .288 | Kyle Davies | 733 | -.220 | |
| Erik Bedard | 703 | .267 | Sean White | 353 | -.211 | |
| Josh Beckett | 1112 | .264 | David Hernandez | 357 | -.207 | |
| Hideki Okajima | 354 | .259 | Shairon Martis | 690 | -.207 | |
| Kevin Slowey | 707 | .248 | Edwin Jackson | 1010 | -.199 | |
| Josh Johnson | 1021 | .238 | Eric Stults | 451 | -.195 | |
| Shawn Camp | 367 | .237 | Ross Ohlendorf | 849 | -.182 | |
| Ricky Nolasco | 924 | .237 | Trevor Cahill | 1095 | -.180 | |
| Danny Herrera | 354 | .225 | Tim Redding | 506 | -.180 | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 788 | .215 | Rick Porcello | 804 | -.177 | |
| Randy Wolf | 1048 | .214 | Brad Ziegler | 376 | -.174 | |
| Justin Verlander | 1077 | .211 | Micah Owings | 939 | -.172 | |
| Heath Bell | 380 | .205 | Ian Snell | 795 | -.171 | |
| Aaron Harang | 949 | .204 | Zach Miner | 523 | -.169 | |
| Tim Lincecum | 1163 | .194 | Francisco Liriano | 923 | -.165 |
Surprises? Suggestions for a better calculation and/or set of factors?
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