Well, projected isn't really the right term.
I'm basing these end of season standings on Justin's Power Rankings. He calculates what a team's likely record would be if everyone had the same performance and we replayed the season.
So if a team has had a bunch of people outperform their realistic projections so far, I assume that's going to continue. If a team has lost a lot of time to injuries, I assume that will continue. Basically I'm using the past to predict the future, which is always a somewhat futile exercise.
Still, I thought it would be interesting to see what the standings would look like in October if everyone continued to perform as they had to this date.
AL East
| Team | Current Wins |
Current Losses | eW% | Season Wins | Season Losses | Season W% |
| Yankees | 31 | 32 | 0.605 | 97 | 65 | 0.599 |
| Blue Jays | 30 | 25 | 0.608 | 95 | 67 | 0.586 |
| Rays | 27 | 28 | 0.614 | 93 | 69 | 0.574 |
| Red Sox | 31 | 22 | 0.572 | 93 | 69 | 0.574 |
| Orioles | 24 | 30 | 0.461 | 74 | 88 | 0.457 |
AL Central
| Team | Current Wins |
Current Losses | eW% | Season Wins | Season Losses | Season W% |
| Tigers | 28 | 23 | 0.576 |
92 | 70 | 0.568 |
|
Royals |
23 | 29 | 0.530 | 81 | 81 | 0.500 |
| Twins | 26 | 28 | 0.507 | 81 | 81 | 0.500 |
| White Sox | 25 | 27 | 0.499 | 80 | 82 | 0.494 |
| Indians | 23 | 32 | 0.521 | 79 | 83 | 0.488 |
AL West
| Team | Current Wins |
Current Losses | eW% | Season Wins | Season Losses | Season W% |
| Rangers | 31 | 21 | 0.571 | 94 | 68 | 0.580 |
| Angels | 26 | 25 | 0.501 | 82 | 80 | 0.506 |
| Mariners | 26 | 28 | 0.444 | 74 | 88 | 0.457 |
| Athletics | 21 | 30 | 0.416 | 67 | 95 | 0.414 |
NL East
| Team | Current Wins |
Current Losses | eW% | Season Wins | Season Losses | Season W% |
| Phillies | 31 | 20 | 0.515 | 88 | 74 | 0.543 |
| Mets | 28 | 23 | 0.533 | 87 | 75 | 0.537 |
| Braves | 26 | 26 | 0.492 | 80 | 82 | 0.494 |
| Marlins | 25 | 29 | 0.378 | 66 | 96 | 0.407 |
| Nationals | 14 | 36 | 0.421 | 61 | 101 | 0.377 |
NL Central
| Team | Current Wins |
Current Losses | eW% | Season Wins | Season Losses | Season W% |
| Cardinals | 30 | 23 | 0.506 | 85 | 77 | 0.525 |
| Brewers | 31 | 22 | 0.494 | 85 | 77 | 0.525 |
| Cubs | 26 | 25 | 0.486 | 80 | 82 | 0.494 |
| Reds | 28 | 24 | 0.456 | 78 | 84 | 0.481 |
| Pirates | 24 | 28 | 0.464 | 75 | 87 | 0.463 |
| Astros | 23 | 31 | 0.415 | 69 | 93 | 0.426 |
NL West
| Team | Current Wins |
Current Losses | eW% | Season Wins | Season Losses | Season W% |
| Dodgers | 37 | 18 | 0.607 | 102 | 60 | 0.630 |
|
Padres |
25 | 28 | 0.424 | 71 | 91 | 0.438 |
| Rockies | 20 | 32 | 0.454 | 70 | 92 | 0.432 |
| Diamondbacks | 23 | 31 | 0.425 | 69 | 93 | 0.426 |
| Giants | 25 | 25 | 0.375 | 67 | 95 | 0.414 |
A little bit of commentary after the jump...
- These standings don't exactly equal a .500 record (the league is 30 games under overall), due to rounding errors. Just in case anyone took the time to add things up and realized they didn't match exactly.
- Also, this was purely a mathematical exercise and doesn't take into consideration schedules going forward. So it doesn't consider the likelihood of the AL East teams beating up on each other, and the NL West games where someone actually does have to win.
- Wow, the AL East is good. They have 4 of the top 7 projected teams - all with at least 93 wins.
- On the other hand, the NL West is really bad. The Dodgers are projected to win the division by 31 games. That's just crazy.
- Right now it looks like we're in for some good races in three divisions, with four teams from the NL East and Central battling for three spots.
- Interesting battle at the bottom of the standings. The Marlins have played well above their performance to this point and the Nationals have been well below theirs. Going forward the 11 game difference should shrink, but not enough for the Marlins to steal the first pick from the Nats.
So what do you guys think? Is this a worthwhile exercise even though they aren't really projections? Should I keep doing this?