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BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings

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Well, projected isn't really the right term. 

I'm basing these end of season standings on Justin's Power Rankings.  He calculates what a team's likely record would be if everyone had the same performance and we replayed the season. 

So if a team has had a bunch of people outperform their realistic projections so far, I assume that's going to continue.  If a team has lost a lot of time to injuries, I assume that will continue.  Basically I'm using the past to predict the future, which is always a somewhat futile exercise.

Still, I thought it would be interesting to see what the standings would look like in October if everyone continued to perform as they had to this date.

AL East

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW% Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Yankees 31 32 0.605 97 65 0.599
Blue Jays 30 25 0.608 95 67 0.586
Rays 27 28 0.614 93 69 0.574
Red Sox 31 22 0.572 93 69 0.574
Orioles 24 30 0.461 74 88 0.457


AL Central

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW% Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Tigers 28 23 0.576
92 70 0.568
Royals
23 29 0.530 81 81 0.500
Twins 26 28 0.507 81 81 0.500
White Sox 25 27 0.499 80 82 0.494
Indians 23 32 0.521 79 83 0.488


AL West

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW% Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Rangers 31 21 0.571 94 68 0.580
Angels 26 25 0.501 82 80 0.506
Mariners 26 28 0.444 74 88 0.457
Athletics 21 30 0.416 67 95 0.414


NL East

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW% Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Phillies 31 20 0.515 88 74 0.543
Mets 28 23 0.533 87 75 0.537
Braves 26 26 0.492 80 82 0.494
Marlins 25 29 0.378 66 96 0.407
Nationals 14 36 0.421 61 101 0.377


NL Central

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW% Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Cardinals 30 23 0.506 85 77 0.525
Brewers 31 22 0.494 85 77 0.525
Cubs 26 25 0.486 80 82 0.494
Reds 28 24 0.456 78 84 0.481
Pirates 24 28 0.464 75 87 0.463
Astros 23 31 0.415 69 93 0.426


NL West

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW% Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Dodgers 37 18 0.607 102 60 0.630
Padres
25 28 0.424 71 91 0.438
Rockies 20 32 0.454 70 92 0.432
Diamondbacks 23 31 0.425 69 93 0.426
Giants 25 25 0.375 67 95 0.414

A little bit of commentary after the jump...

  • These standings don't exactly equal a .500 record (the league is 30 games under overall), due to rounding errors.  Just in case anyone took the time to add things up and realized they didn't match exactly.
  • Also, this was purely a mathematical exercise and doesn't take into consideration schedules going forward.  So it doesn't consider the likelihood of the AL East teams beating up on each other, and the NL West games where someone actually does have to win.
  • Wow, the AL East is good.  They have 4 of the top 7 projected teams - all with at least 93 wins.
  • On the other hand, the NL West is really bad.  The Dodgers are projected to win the division by 31 games.  That's just crazy.
  • Right now it looks like we're in for some good races in three divisions, with four teams from the NL East and Central battling for three spots.
  • Interesting battle at the bottom of the standings.  The Marlins have played well above their performance to this point and the Nationals have been well below theirs.  Going forward the 11 game difference should shrink, but not enough for the Marlins to steal the first pick from the Nats.

So what do you guys think?  Is this a worthwhile exercise even though they aren't really projections?  Should I keep doing this?