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BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of June 11, 2009

It's time once again for the Poor Man's Projected Season Standings.  It would be more accurate to call them the "End of the Season Standings If Everything Happened Exactly Like It Has To This Point In the Season And Luck Pretty Much Evened Out" but I can't fit that in a headline.  Even the acronym is a little long, so we'll stick with the Poor Man's Projections.

As with last week,  these are based on Justin's Power Rankings.  Per his suggestion, I have changed to use the expected winning within the league (eW%lg) which better accounts for the teams playing most of their games in the same league

AL East

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW%lg Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Blue Jays
34 27 0.595 94 68 0.580
Red Sox
35 24 0.571 94 68 0.580
Yankees 34 25 0.568 93 69 0.574
Rays 30 31 0.594 90 72 0.556
Orioles 24 30 0.461 74 88 0.457


AL Central

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW%lg Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Tigers 33 26 0.517
86 76 0.531
Twins
30 31 0.490 79 83 0.488
Indians 26 35 0.506 77 85 0.475
White Sox 27 33 0.459 74 88 0.457
Royals 25 33 0.463 73 89 0.451


AL West

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW%lg Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Rangers 33 25 0.518 87 75 0.537
Angels 29 28 0.483 80 82 0.494
Mariners 29 30 0.424 73 89 0.451
Athletics 26 32 0.416 69 93 0.426


NL East

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW%lg Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Phillies 34 23 0.554 92 70 0.568
Mets 31 26 0.552 89 73 0.549
Braves 29 29 0.523 83 79 0.512
Marlins 29 32 0.414 71 91 0.438
Nationals 15 42 0.442 61 101 0.377


NL Central

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW%lg Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Brewers 33 26 0.521 87 75 0.537
Cubs 29 27 0.541 86 76 0.531
Cardinals 32 28 0.496 83 79 0.512
Reds 31 27 0.472 80 82 0.494
Pirates 27 32 0.477 76 86 0.469
Astros 26 31 0.453 74 88 0.457


NL West

Team Current Wins
Current Losses eW%lg Season Wins Season Losses Season W%
Dodgers 40 21 0.618 102 60 0.630
Rockies
27 32 0.535 82 80 0.506
Giants 31 27 0.417 74 88 0.457
Diamondbacks 25 35 0.474 73 89 0.451
Padres 28 31 0.424 72 90 0.444

 

Removing the league adjustments makes the National League a lot more competitive in terms of wins.  It's more fair too since there really aren't that many interleague games.

The major changes from last week include a dropoff from Texas, although not enough to jeopardize their playoff spot, a big push from Colorado and a major decline from the Royals.

Things are shaping up for a great race in the AL East with 4 teams fighting for two playoff spots - although I have to assume at least one of the teams will fall off the pace especially as they beat each other up.

The NL Central looks like it's pretty much up for grabs too.

BtB preseason favorites Cleveland and Oakland look like they have too much ground to make up from their early poor starts - the A's are pretty good favorites for the worst team in the AL.  I definitely got that one wrong.

Check back next week to see if the Giants can continue to exceed expectations.