Good morning! This is just like the Wednesday Evening FanShots Round Up, except it's what happens when my day goes long. Right here, we have a quick and dirty collection of some of the best FanShots over the last couple days. As usual, there's a lot more great stuff going on down there, and if you click this link and/or scroll down, you can see it and leave happy little comments that will just be between you and Bob Ross (and everyone else). And, of course, you can make your own to spark conversation, get ideas or share your own ideas or whatever stories and concepts you think are cool.
Sean Smith proposed a future adjustment to TotalZone by analyzing how often hitters reach base on balls in play by pitch count. Hitters, for example, hit .292 on balls in play in hitters counts, as opposed to .252 in pitchers counts and .273 for neutral counts. The long and short of it is that a pitcher consistently ahead in the count can gain 20-40 points on his in-play average.
On Baseball and the Reds makes park factors even more accurate and easier to use (for hitters) by making them additive. Worried your average player in Coors Field isn't getting knocked down enough by normal park factors compared to what Matt Holliday has suffered? Simple! Just look at the handy chart in that link, multiply the adjustment by the number of PA Mr. Average has had, and subtract. For Coors, by the way, it's a 7.6 run advantage per 700/PA, and for PETCO it's a 6.7 run disadvantage.
How does Javier Vazquez always underperform his peripherals? Eric Seidman talks about it, looking at how awesome Vazquez is at the important stuff: missing bats, avoiding walks and getting outs. But his problems all seem to come at once, inflating his ERA and making it harder for his team to win that a guy with his abilities should. In the comments, his mechanics are brought in to question, including how well he pitches out of the stretch. That could go a ways towards explaining why 41% of his home runs come with runners on base.
Don Drysdale pitched 58 consecutive scoreless innings. Zack Greinke only threw 38. But Sky Andercheck reminds us that context matters, and thanks to Drysdale's run environment being about a run and a half per game friendlier to him, the streaks are actually pretty comparable.
Rick Reilly had a story on my favorite prospect: switch pitcher Pat Venditte. He's tearing it up in Single A (0.83 ERA?!), and this is very important to me. Baseball has a strong need to have a switch pitcher. I would watch every Yankees game in hopes of seeing him.
A Viva El Birdos reader shares a bar story about Aaron Miles, who is apparently rather depressed and doesn't think Albert Pujols is a leader. No way to verify if it's actually true, and, frankly, I hope it's not (it's kind of sad), but it's an intriguing story.
Andy Pettite's WAR (via FIP) the past four seasons: 5.8, 3.5, 4.5, 4.4. And he's already up to 1.0 this season. That's precisely why Eric Seidman says he doesn't belong in the bullpen or in any conversation about "#5 starter."
DL'd Red Sox announcer Jerry Remy gave a personal update, saying he has been struggling with a post-op infection after cancer treatment and pneumonia. He speaks on the dangers of smoking and says he is currently fine physically, but needs time to recuperate before returning to the booth.
Finally, Jeremy Greenhouse looks at whether the relationship between WAR and monetary value is linear or not. He contends one Albert Pujols is worth more money than two half-Albert Pujolses, and presents data and graphs that I humbly admit I need more conversation to fully grasp myself. Additionally, he presents graphs looking at the value of pitch velocity and home run power. Essentially -- all other things being equal -- an extra MPH on a fastball is worth about 165 thousand free agent dollars, while 10 extra feet of fly ball distance is worth a quarter of a million.
Check these and other FanShots out, and keep adding your own.