Wrapping up the series, this time it's the NL West's turn. It ain't pretty.
Once again, the prospect surplus values as figured for Victor Wang. You can read more on Victor's findings here:
|Top 10 hitting prospects||$32.5M|
|Top 11-25 hitters||$22.3|
|Top 26-50 hitters||$20.8|
|Top 51-75 hitters||$12.6|
|Top 76-100 hitters||$11.1|
|Top 10 pitching prospects||$13.5|
|Top 11-25 pitchers||$14.2|
|Top 26-50 pitchers||$14.2|
|Top 51-75 pitchers||$10.8|
|Top 76-100 pitchers||$8.7|
|Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)
|Grade B hitters||$4.9|
|Grade C pitchers 22 or younger||$1.9|
|Grade C pitchers 23 or older||$1.3|
|Grade C hitters 22 or younger||$0.62|
|Grade C hitters 23 or older||$0.45|
From this study I found that $90.1M is the average farm system value. Therefore, with the exception of the Giants, these systems are pretty bad. It is as if it's not enough major league teams in the division were not mediocre enough to begin with.
- Dodgers, $69.3M. I touched on this when we looked at the AL Central, but if it had not been for that trade of Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan for Casey Blake, the Dodgers farm system would have been worth $91.4M. You just don't trade top prospects for marginal talent, even in a pennant race. Andrew Lambo is their best prospect, and while he'll be a good hitter, I'm not sure he will be good enough hitter as a 1B or a LF. Ethan Martin is the wild card here. He has star potential but has yet to throw a pitch in professional ball. While this system is the worst in the division, we are talking about an organization that recently has recently graduated Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton and James Loney, so there is not too much to feel bad about for Dodger fans.
Padres, $69.8M. I was surprised this system didn't shake out to be worse. They only have one top 100 prospect - the hulking 1B Kyle Blanks - and he is in the sticky situation of being a blocked on a non-contending NL team. The Padres have a few guys like Blanks, eg- defensively limited hitters with no real clear path to the big leagues. Jaff Decker should eventually replace Giles, but he's still a teenager. Matt Latos is the Padres' wild card; he has top of the rotation stuff, but hasn't been able to stay healthy. This system could be on the upswing - they are spending more in Latin America then ever before, and seem to be improving in the way they draft, although I still don't get the Allan Dykstra pick.
- Rockies, $72M. The only thing standing in Dexter Fowler's way between AAA and the big leagues is Ryan Spilbourghs. Jhoulys Chacin has been dubbed by one scout "Felix Hernandez-lite". Like the Dodgers, this is a team full of talented youngsters, it's just that most of the best ones are already in the major leagues.
- Diamondbacks $74M. Despite having only two top 100 prospects, what put Arizona over the others was five B pitching propsects, including two of their first-rounders from last year, Daniel Schlereth and Wade Miley. Their best hitting prospect, Gerardo Parra, should be ready to take over once Eric Byrnes' horrid contract is up. Jarrod Parker looks like a future stud, but we are talking about a 20-year old. The cupboard is a lot more bare than it's been in a while, as much of last year's prospects are either in the majors or in Oakland as part of the Dan Haren deal.
Giants, $103.5M. The Giants have been a bit of a joke lately, but they seem to be turning things around faster than expected. The Giants have a poor reputation for developing position players, but that is changing. Posey may be the best catching prospect not named Matt Wieters. Villalona has as much power potential as any hitting prospect in the game, and Conor Gillaspie was the first player from last year's draft to make the big leagues. Madison Bumgarner looks to be the next great young Giant pitcher, and Tim Alderson may not be far behind. The Giants are not only improving through the draft, but also spending big dollars on top Latin American talent.
While the Rockies, Dodgers and D'Backs have cranked out some impressive talent, no team has really been able really separate themselves in this weak division. The Giants may be that team. A rotation headed by Lincecum - Cain - Bumgarner - Alderson will keep runs off the board, but they still are a little shy on hitting talent before I can foresee a complete turnaround. Posey and Villalona will definitely help if they live up to their potential.
Up next: All 30 teams ranked by surplus values.